Tag: long range

A Return to Summer?

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After several weeks of weather that resembled fall more than summer, we may begin to see hot weather return.

A Surface Ridge of High Pressure Will Slide Southward on Monday

Monday

Monday

Mix of Sun and Cloud. Slight Chance of Showers.
23°C / 6°C

However, before we see hot weather again in Southern Manitoba, we’ll have to deal with yet another burst of polar air. Another surface ridge will drop down from the north on Monday, which will result in reasonable, but still cool conditions. High temperatures on Monday will be in the low twenties, though there may be some readings in the mid twenties along the International border. There might be a few showers around during the afternoon and evening as cool air aloft generates a bit of instability. The wind will generally be light and from the north, though it will be a bit breezier in open areas.

Tuesday

Tuesday

Mainly Sunny
22°C / 7°C

Tuesday looks to be just a slightly cooler version of Monday. Highs will be in the low twenties once again with with a light northerly wind. Shower activity looks less likely on Tuesday, but there may still be some bubbly cloud cover as the ground heats up during the day.

Wednesday

Wednesday

Mainly Sunny
23°C / 10°C

At this point there is a bit of uncertainty as to how warm Wednesday will get. Some weather models suggest we’ll see temperatures in the mid to upper twenties, while others suggest temperatures in the low twenties are most likely. I’m leaning towards the later of those two scenarios, as I don’t think the warm air will move in quite that quickly. As a result, I’m once again calling for temperatures generally in the low twenties with variable cloudiness through the day. The area with the best chance of seeing some warmer conditions on Wednesday will be portions of Western Manitoba where that warmer air may filter in a bit during the afternoon and early evening.

Long Range

The longer range forecast is where things begin to look more promising. Models suggest that we’ll stand a good chance of seeing high temperatures in the upper twenties on Thursday. If we’re lucky, we may take a run at the 30C mark as early as Friday, but that type of heat looks more probable on the weekend right now. There have also been some hints in the models that this heat may also be accompanied by elevated humidity levels. Given that the model I’m looking at for this (GFS) is notorious for being too humid, I’m not going to get overly caught up on this for now. Once we get closer to the weekend, and more accurate information is available, this part of the forecast can be more appropriately addressed.

More of the Same

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We’ll slowly warm up this week, but no spectacular weather is in store.

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Surface temperatures and pressures on Monday (College of Dupage – NAM model)

Monday through Wednesday

Monday
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Clearing
-3°C / -14°C
Tuesday
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Mainly sunny
-4°C / -14°C
Wednesday
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Mainly sunny
-3°C / -12°C

Monday will be another carbon-copy of what we’ve seen a lot of lately. Temperatures will be in the mid minus single digits in most areas, with the exception of forested areas and areas within the cities, where temperatures will be a good five or so degrees warmer than that. There will be a chance of flurries during the morning into the early afternoon before we clear out by later in the day. Tuesday will again be almost identical to Monday – except sunnier – so no further elaboration is needed about that.

Wednesday should see temperatures come up a bit more, with highs in the low to mid minus single digits in most areas. Like Monday and Tuesday, forested and city areas will be a bit warmer than the open prairie, with values around or just above freezing.

Long Range

The long range is neither good nor bad. It looks like we should warm up even more later this week, with more widespread freezing or above freezing temperatures expected. However, further out in the long range models show more cold air dropping south into Southern Manitoba around next weekend, with no more substantial warm-ups currently in the forecast.

Blizzard to Start the Week

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Heavy blowing snow will greet residents of the Red River Valley on Monday morning. Calmer, but colder weather is in store after the storm passes.

NAM model predicted weather on Monday morning

Monday

Monday

Blowing snow
-18°C / -28°C

A strong low pressure system has generated heavy blowing snow and blizzard conditions in parts of the Red River Valley on Monday morning. Wind speeds early Monday are in the 40-50km/h gusting to 60-70km/h range across Southern Manitoba. This in combination with a fresh 5-15cm of snow in the region is the obvious cause of the very poor weather conditions. The wind will gradually taper off through the day on Monday, allowing the blizzard to subside as well. However, blowing snow at some level will last through basically the whole day in open country.

Tuesday

Tuesday

Mainly sunny
-22°C / -31°C

Tuesday will be a very cold day, in fact the coldest in quite awhile. Lows on Tuesday morning will be in the upper minus twenties, with highs in the low minus twenties. Wind chill values will be elevated as well, making for a rather unpleasant day.

Wednesday

Wednesday

Mainly sunny
-15°C / -20°C

Wednesday morning will be another cold one, with lows around minus thirty. Daytime highs will moderate somewhat, reaching into the minus teens. However, wind chill values will become an issue again on Wednesday afternoon, probably not what you were hoping to hear.

Long Range

There is no sign of spring in the long range forecast at the moment, but I do know that each passing day is in fact one day closer to spring, whether it feels that way or not.

Frosty to Start the Week

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We’ll be in for a couple of chilly, perhaps you could even say frosty, days to start this week. Cool daytime highs and sub-zero nighttime lows are on tap.

GEM-REG 3hr. Precipitation Accumulation

Some light lake effect showers (shown in blue) are expected to develop on Monday as cold air flows over the relatively warm lakes winnipeg and manitoba.

After a rather chilly Monday morning, temperatures won’t make a dramatic recovery for the afternoon. Daytime highs on the first day of the week are expected to barely make the double digits in most areas, with highs generally in the 9-12C range expected. A breezy north wind and perhaps a couple of lake-effect showers won’t make the day any more pleasant. Tuesday night should be another cool one in Southern Manitoba. However, it appears frost will be isolated to areas around and east of the Red River Valley as some warmer air moving in from the west will keep temperatures above zero overnight in Western Manitoba. Daytime highs on Tuesday will be an improvement from Monday, though except for South-Western Manitoba where 20C values are expected, temperatures will generally remain stuck in the mid teens.

Yet another cold front will swing through overnight Tuesday into Wednesday ushering in another cool airmass to end the week. It appears high temperatures will be relegated to the teens from Wednesday through Friday. There appears to be slim odds of any significant precipitation this week, though we may at least get some measureable rain later in the week as a few strong impulses rotate through the region.

NAEFS Ensemble 8-14 day outlook

The NAEFS ensemble doesn’t give a strong indication of what type of weather we’ll see moving forward…

At this point the long range forecast looks fairly status quo. We’ll see some cooler than normal days and some warmer than normal days, but in general the pattern for the next week or two generally looks to be near normal on average. However, there will certainly be a fall feel to the air as nighttime temperatures regular drop down to the freezing mark and daytime highs stay close to the average high for mid-September of 18C.