Tag: low pressure

More Active Weather

Brad Leave a comment

More active weather is in store for this week with multiple chances for precipitation. The question is whether that precipitation will be solid or liquid.

Low pressure system passing to the south-east on Thursday

A low pressure system is currently expected to pass to our south-east on Thursday, generating minimal impacts in Manitoba

The weather to start the week will be fine, with temperatures generally in the high single digits on Monday and perhaps a few double-digit readings here and there. There will be increasing cloudiness during the day as a weather system approaches. This system will begin to spread rain over Southern Manitoba on Monday night with precipitation persisting into the day on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will remain very similar to Monday, but the rain will make it a considerably more miserable day. Total accumulations from this system will generally range from 5 to 15mm. As Tuesday’s system departs our region on Wednesday, cooler air will sweep in from the west making for a chilly and windy middle of the week. Temperatures on Wednesday will be in the mid single digits with a gusty west wind.

There has been much talk about the weather for later this week. Some models have been showing a significant Colorado Low system hitting portions of Manitoba on Thursday and Friday. However, other models show little or no precipitation for us later this week. At this point the consensus seems to be that it is unlikely Southern Manitoba will be getting a major blizzard later this week. Most models depict a moderate strength low system sliding past us through Minnesota and up into North-Western Ontario, perhaps bringing a few flurries or rain showers to Southern Manitoba, but not a major winter storm. Some models still show a fairly deep low pressure system to our east over Northern Minnesota and North-Western Ontario later this week, but it looks like it will be sufficiently far away to prevent us from seeing its main impacts. So at this point it appears unlikely that we’ll be seeing any significant amount of the white stuff later this week. However, expecting the unexpected as always a good saying to live by in the weather business.

Decent Start to the Week

Brad Leave a comment

The weather to start this week will be decent, with normal to above-normal temperatures expected. However, some change is in store closer to the middle of the week.

A strong low pressure system will move through Southern Manitoba this week

A strong low pressure system will move through Southern Manitoba this week, pulling down cooler air from the north

Monday will be a fairly good, albeit cloudy day. Temperatures will be in the low teens in the Red River Valley, with perhaps a couple of light showers in the afternoon. These showers are expected to develop ahead of a trough that will move through the Red River Valley during the day. Further west, in portions of south-western Manitoba, temperature should climb up around the 20C mark as sunnier conditions prevail. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the week, with highs close to 20C possible in the Red River Valley. Unfortunately that is where nice weather ends.

A powerful low pressure system will slide through Manitoba on Wednesday, bringing some rain and changing weather with it. Temperatures on Wednesday will remain near normal at around 10C with gusty west to north-westerly winds developing behind the low pressure system. On Thursday the system’s passage will be felt more noticeably as temperatures drop back down into the mid single digits and gusty north winds make for a chilly day.

There is some uncertainty in the forecast for late week into the weekend. Models currently suggest that another strong low pressure system may move through Manitoba, but the timing and strength of this system are not clear. This is what the end of the week will probably look like, but as we all know models like to change their solutions from time to time.

Gloomy Thanksgiving Monday

Brad Leave a comment

This Thanksgiving will be nothing like last year’s (which featured temperatures in the twenties), as rain and wet snow make for a rather miserable holiday Monday.

Total precipitation accumulation for Monday's system

The GEM model shows generally 10-20mm of precipitation over Southern Manitoba

A low pressure system sliding south-eastward through Manitoba on Monday will be responsible for the precipitation, with rain beginning to move into Southern Manitoba early Monday morning. Temperatures on Monday will be cool, but generally not cold enough for snow with values hovering in the mid single digits during the daytime. By evening there will be a changeover to snow in some areas, mainly portions of Western Manitoba, as colder air is pulled down from the north. Areas in the Red River Valley can expect a bit of wet snow late Monday evening into the overnight period, but with surface temperatures remaining above zero, no notable accumulation is expected. Total precipitation accumulations will generally range from 10 to 20mm across Southern Manitoba by early Tuesday.

Unfortunately, conditions will improve little for Tuesday. It will be a chilly start to the work-week as cold air pulled down by the previous day’s low pressure system will not allow temperatures to climb much higher than the mid single digits at best. Monday’s low pressure system will have departed by Tuesday morning, so no more significant precipitation is expected (save for perhaps a few scattered showers or flurries). At this point models keep us in the single digits for Wednesday as well, so even normal weather will continue to elude us.

The late week period looks to remain fairly miserable, with temperatures staying stuck in the single digits. No more significant precipitation is expected later this week.

Elsewhere in Weather News: October 6th, 2012

Matthieu Leave a comment

Record Early Snowstorm Hits Northern States

The same powerful low pressure system that brought the first significant snowfall of the season to Southern Manitoba dropped copious amounts of snow south of the border. A surface low pressure system that was moving in a north-easterly fashion combined with a deepening upper low through the area resulted in a record-breaking early winter storm this past week in North Dakota and Minnesota.

Visible satellite

Image of visible satellite taken on Friday afternoon. Large upper low is located in NW Ontario with jet stream in pink and cyan circled area the hardest hit areas. (Image source: COD)

Impressive snowfall totals were recorded in Northern Minnesota and North Dakota in the wake of the storm. Numerous cars were spotted in the ditches and tractor-trailers jackknifed in Northern Minnesota on Friday, due to treacherous road conditions. Around 3,000 people were out of power in the two states on Friday afternoon in the hardest hit areas. Woodridge, MB to Thief River Falls, MN received the heaviest bands of snow. Below lists some of the impressive amounts of snow accumulation recorded in Minnesota and North Dakota, as per reported by the National Weather Service:

  • Badger, MN (30 minutes south of Piney, MB): 30-36cm
  • Roseau, MN: 18cm
  • Grand Forks, ND: 9cm – A record for largest amount of snow to fall this early in the year (old record: 5cm)
  • International Falls, MN: 4cm – Also a record for the largest amount of snow to fall this early in the year (old record: 1.5cm)

(The remainder of the reports as of 3pm, Friday afternoon can be seen at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fgf&storyid=87914&source=0)

This snowfall brings to a close (for now) the extreme fire danger in North Dakota and Minnesota whose conditions were similar to Southern Manitoba – extremely dry and windy. The Karlstad fire in Minnesota on October 3rd was fanned by severe 65km/h winds and drought conditions. In total, 31 buildings were destroyed; thankfully, no one was hurt.

Damage

Picture of the damage in Karlstad. (Source: MPL/Nathaniel Minor)

As the low pressure system continues to move further north-east, areas in Northern Ontario such as Timmins and Geraldton will experience their first snowfall of the year.