Tag: mbstorm

Springtime Roller Coaster Sets up Over Southern Manitoba

Brad 1 Comment

Temperatures will be all over the place this week as a series of low pressure systems draw warmth north and drive cold air south.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Tuesday March 11, 2025
An Arctic high will bring cold temperatures to southern Manitoba on Tuesday morning.

It’ll be a frigid start to the week with temperatures down into the -20s across southern Manitoba this morning. An Arctic air mass settled into the region overnight behind the cold front of the clipper system that brought a fresh coat of snow to the region yesterday. Fortunately, the cold won’t be here for long as the Arctic high responsible for it quickly shifts towards eastern Canada.

Temperatures will rebound back into the -10 to -5 °C range this afternoon with southerly winds picking up into the 20 to 30 km/h range. Much of the day should bring sunshine, but skies will cloud over in the evening. Another low pressure system will slump through the province into North Dakota tonight. It will keep temperatures from dropping much overnight and bring another dusting of snow to the region. The snow should begin sometime after supper and taper off overnight. Snowfall amounts by Wednesday morning should be less than a centimetre or two.

The weather for the rest of the work week will be defined by two features: an upper ridge building into the Prairies and a deepening upper trough on the west coast.

The building upper ridge will bring milder temperatures back to the region with daytime highs climbing to around the +5 °C mark on Wednesday. As a bonus, Wednesday should bring sunny skies with southwest winds in the 15 to 25 km/h range.

By Wednesday evening, a well-developed warm front will lie draped from the southwestern Prairies into North Dakota. A weak impulse will track along it on Wednesday night, bringing more cloud and light snow. There will be a risk of freezing rain overnight as warm air continues to stream north over the warm front through the night. At this point, it is not expected to be a widespread concern but we could see slippery areas on Thursday morning from overnight freezing rain.

Temperatures will dip down into the -5 to 0 °C range on Wednesday night with northeast winds picking up into the 20 to 30 km/h range.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday March 13, 2025
Thursday could bring warm weather to southern Manitoba.

Skies will clear out on Thursday as the deepening upper trough over the west coast begins to drive the development of a large low pressure system in the United States. The temperature forecast is tricky for the day as there are disagreements as to whether the warm front over the region will stay roughly in place or lift north. If winds stay northeast, daytime highs will likely reach a degree or two above 0 °C. If the region can switch to easterly or southeasterly winds, then much warmer weather is possible.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the end of the week, the broad story is clear, but the details are impossible to discern at this point. As the upper trough begins to dig east towards the American Plains, a potent Colorado Low will develop and begin to lift northeast on Friday. A warm front will be driven northeast through southern Manitoba as warm air surges north. Daytime highs of 15 to 20 °C will be possible over northern Minnesota, but temperatures in the Red River Valley will likely reach the 5 to 10 °C range. As the warm air pushes north, cold air will dig in from the northwest; heading into western and southwestern Manitoba, daytime highs may not even break the freezing mark.

This system will spread multiple waves of precipitation north over a couple days, and almost anything could be possible: heavy rain showers, freezing rain, broad areas of rain, snow, and ice pellets. This system will bring strong northerly winds on its western flank with much colder weather digging into the region later on Saturday.

At this point, it looks like much of this system’s precipitation will track east of the Red River Valley but forecasting the track of Colorado Lows more than a few days out can be a futile effort. There is the chance that this system’s track could shift east and end up missing our region…or that its track shifts west and the Red River Valley experiences the brunt of this system.

Be prepared for the potential for a major storm this weekend with all sorts of wintery weather possible, and hope for the best!

Colder weather will settle into the region for Sunday as the temperature drops into the minus teens on Saturday night and rebounds towards the -10 to -5 °C range.

Warmer weather will build back in for next week with daytime highs climbing back above freezing.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -2 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -13 °C.

Warming up for the Weekend

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A series of low pressure systems will bring mild weather to the Winnipeg area this weekend, but a cool-down with more snow will kick off next week.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Sunday March 9, 2025
Mild temperatures will spread across southern Manitoba on Sunday.

The work week will end with seasonably cool temperatures in the Winnipeg area while a warm front sits to the west, draped from northern Saskatchewan into southwestern Manitoba. Over the weekend, a pair of low pressure systems will move across the region and push warmer weather into the region.

For today, the region will see seasonably cool conditions with a high near -5 °C this afternoon. A mixed skies will give way to midday sun, then to increasing cloud in the afternoon as the warm front begins to push east into the region. Light winds will organize out of the south as the day goes on and pick up into the 15 to 25 km/h range overnight. Light snow will push through the region in the second half of the night as a weak low pushes the warm front east of the region. A light dusting of snow will taper off early Saturday morning as temperatures rise a couple degrees by morning.

Saturday will bring mild temperatures back to the region with highs climbing above freezing into the 0 to +5 °C range. Winds will ease and shift northwest for the afternoon. A few sunny breaks are possible as the day wears on.

A more organized low pressure system will eject east across the Prairies on Saturday night and track towards central Manitoba. It will draw more mild air across the southern Prairies as it spreads accumulating snow into central Manitoba. For Winnipeg and the Red River Valley, this will likely mean partly cloudy skies overnight with temperatures dipping below freezing. Winds will shift southerly again and pick up to around 20 km/h by Sunday morning.

Sunday should bring even warmer weather to the region with daytime highs potentially climbing into the 5 to 10 °C range. As the low passes by north of the region into Ontario on Sunday monring, winds will shift west-northwesterly. They will strengthen into the 30 to 40 km/h range for Sunday afternoon, making for mild but breezy conditions.

A cold front will slump south towards the region on Sunday evening and likely bring temperatures back below the freezing mark by Sunday morning. No notable snow is expected with this second system in the Red River Valley.

Long Range Outlook

Next week is shaping up to be an active one with two notable systems impacting the region. The first will be a potent low pressure system that quickly tracks through the southern Prairies on Monday. Early indications are that this system will draw a lot of warm air north with temperatures in the mid-teens on its southern flank dropping to temperatures in the -10 to 0 °C on its northern flank. This system could bring a narrow swath of significant snow to the region, but there’s a lot of uncertainty associated with it at this point.

The second system is currently forecast to develop late next week and could potentially result in the first Colorado Low of the season. If it develops as expected, it could bring as much as 10 to 20 cm of snow to southern Manitoba beginning late Friday through Saturday. It’s early, though, and there’s a lot of room for guidance to change over the next several days. For now, it’s a feature I’ll keep track of as we head into next week.

Otherwise, temperatures look to be near seasonal, but larger swings between highs and lows are possible next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -3 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -14 °C.

#Winnipeg #MBstorm #awm_snow #awm_above_normal_temperatures

Cold Front Slams Through Southern Manitoba, Brings Brief Cool Snap

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A cold front will slam through southern Manitoba this morning and bring strong northerly winds that usher cooler temperatures into the region for a couple days.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 09Z Friday February 28, 2025
Southern Manitoba will wake up to strong northwest winds behind a cold front today.

A strong cold front has passed through Winnipeg early this morning and has brought strong northerly winds to the area. Widespread winds of 40 to 50 km/h will spread through the Red River Valley this morning, but stronger winds up to 60 gusting 90 km/h will be possible over and in the lee of Lake Manitoba. In particular, strong winds will persist through the morning hours in the corridor roughly between Portage la Prairie and the Elie region.

Blowing snow could be a concern with these winds, but the recent mild weather has glazed the top of the snow pack with ice. There may be flurries with the cold front, but any new snow will be limited. As a result, we don’t expect blowing snow to pose much of an issue this morning.

The winds will ease as the day progresses while temperatures call into the -15 to -10 °C range by the end of the afternoon. The clouds will clear out this evening as temperatures drop to around -20 °C overnight. The wind will ease to light overnight.

The forecast for the weekend is pretty simple. An Arctic high will slump into the province behind the cold front and gradually make its way southeast through the province. Saturday will bring sunny skies and light winds with highs in the -10 to -5 °C range. Temperatures will drop back down into the -15 to -10 °C range on Saturday night with light southerly winds as a warm front begins to push across the region.

On Sunday, much of southern Manitoba will see itself back into the air mass we were in before the cold front came through. Temperatures will rebound back to around 0 °C with southerly winds of 20 to 30 km/h. The warmer weather will likely bring mixed skies to the region.

Temperatures will dip back down into the -5 to 0 °C range on Sunday night with clear skies.

Long Range Outlook

Looking ahead to next week, temperatures will continue trending mild with daytime highs hovering from around or just below 0 °C to as high as the mid-single digits. No significant precipitation is in the forecast.

The mild weather of late has been a pleasant break from a lengthy stretch of cold weather this month; today’s system will bring a brief shot of cooler weather, but the warm-up will arrive before the end of the weekend!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -5 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -16 °C.

#Winnipeg #MBstorm #awm_windy #awm_benign

Seasonably Cool Weather Ahead With Chance of Snow Mid-Week

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A stubborn Arctic High will keep temperatures on the cool side this week across Manitoba. Sun will give way to cloud, though, as a developing low in the United States looks likely to bring snow to the region.

RDPS 24hr. Snowfall Accumulation Forecast (Kuchera SLR) valid 12Z Thursday February 5, 2025
A disturbance tracking through the United Staes will spread a swath of fluffy snow across southern Manitoba this week.

An Arctic high over the region will keep winds light and temperatures cool in Winnipeg today. A sunny start to the day will give way to mixed skies as some high-level cloud begins to stream into the area from the southwest. This cloud cover is part of a low pressure system developing in the United States that will continue to extend its influence northwards over the next couple days. The Winnipeg area should see a high in the -20 to -15 °C range this afternoon with westerly winds of 10 to 20 km/h.

Mixed skies will continue overnight, gradually clouding over by Wednesday morning. Temperatures will dip to a low in the -25 to -20 °C range.

Through the night, snow will spread out of Montana and across southern Saskatchewan and into Manitoba. A broad area of snow will gradually work its way across southern Manitoba through Wednesday into the evening.

Temperatures will climb close to around -15 °C on Wednesday with light southerly winds. The winds will shift westerly in the evening and pick up into the 30–40 km/h range as this system exits the region. Temperatures will dip to a low close to -20 °C.

Indications are that this system will bring a notable snowfall to the region. As the snow pushes into the cold air over the region, its snow-to-liquid ratios (SLR) will climb. These values will likely reach into the 20:1 to 25:1 range and bring rather fluffy snow to the region.

For areas along and south of the Trans-Canada Highway corridor, it looks like 5 to 10 cm is likely by the time it tapers off. For areas north of this, a broad swath of 10 to 15 cm is likely for the Parkland and Interlake regions.

A few flurries will linger on Thursday as west-northwest winds continue in the 30 to 40 km/h range. Skies will gradually clear thorough the day with highs around -15 °C. The wind will drop off with clearing skies on Thursday night as temperatures head into the -25 to -20 °C range.

Long Range Outlook

The long range forecast for Winnipeg looks quiet with no major snow events on the horizon. Arctic highs will continue to dominate the weather pattern here and bring seasonably cool weather right through next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -21 °C.