Tag: mbstorm

Mild Fall Stretches On

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The mild fall conditions seen across southern Manitoba will continue into mid-November. There will be weather, though: after a blustery Tuesday, Winnipeg will see several chances for rain over the next week.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 18Z Tuesday November 12, 2024
Strong southerly winds will develop over the Red River Valley today.

Temperatures will stay well above seasonal values in Winnipeg this week as mild air continues to flood into the southern Prairies. While winter weather isn’t that far away — the farther reaches of northern Manitoba and southern Nunavut have seen temperatures near -20 °C or colder already this year — that cold air won’t be making its way south any time soon.

Rather, winds will stay more southerly and westerly over the coming week, bringing daytime highs 5 to 10 °C above seasonal values and keeping overnight lows equally mild.

Starting off with today, it will be a seasonably mild day but marked most notably by strong southerly winds. with the region squeezed between a high pressure system to the southeast and a low pressure system in northern Saskatchewan, southerly winds will strengthen into the 40 to 50 km/h range today with gusts as high as 70 km/h through the Red River Valley. Temperatures will climb to a high near 7 °C this afternoon as skies cloud over.

Cloudy skies will continue through the night as southerly winds gradually taper off into the 20 to 30 km/h range. The cloud and wind will keep things mild with lows dipping just below 5 °C.

On Wednesday, temperatures will rebound back into the upper single digits as a trough of low pressure moves through the region. That trough will bring a chance of some light midday rain showers that clear out of the region for the afternoon. Some sunny breaks are possible as skies likely clear out heading towards the evening. Those southerly winds will also ease in the morning, then switch to light northwesterlies behind the trough.

Temperatures will head to a low near freezing on Wednesday night with light winds and clear skies. Some fog patches could develop overnight and last into Thursday morning.

On Thursday, more cloud will develop over southern Manitoba as another low pushes into Saskatchewan. Temperatures will again climb into the upper single digits as winds shift back out of the south and strengthen into the 20 to 30 km/h range. The low in Saskatchewan will lift northeast through the day, lifting its warm front with it and bringing the Red River Valley into its warm sector. This should bring clearing skies on Thursday night with a low in 0 to 5 °C range and southerly winds of 15 to 20 km/h.

Long Range Outlook

On Friday, Winnipeg should see a beautiful mid-November day in the warm sector of the low tracking through the province. Daytime highs could be as high as +10 °C with sunny skies and a southerly breeze.

The warm weather will persist into the weekend, but another low moving into the area will bring cloudier skies with a good chance of rain on Saturday. Conditions will settle on Sunday with mild weather lasting right into Tuesday.

Tuesday/Wednesday next week will likely bring more rain to the region with temperatures likely beginning to cool off behind it. That said, there’s quite a bit of discrepancy in the guidance at this point; some keep it relatively mild, while others bring a sharp cold snap into the region.

Either way, there’s at least another week of pleasant, mild November weather ahead. Hope you can enjoy it!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -1 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -8 °C.

Warm Weather Brings Rainy End to Weekend

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Mild early-November weather will continue into the weekend, but a disturbance moving into the region will bring rain later on Sunday to end the weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday November 2, 2024
A persistent southerly flow will bring warm temperatures to southern Manitoba over the next few days.

With southerly winds up to around 20 km/h, daytime highs will climb into the 5 to 10 °C range in Winnipeg right through the weekend.

Today will bring mainly cloudy skies to the region, but no precipitation is expected. Skies will clear this evening with winds becoming light. Under clear skies, temperatures will dip down to around -5 °C overnight.

Saturday will bring sunnier conditions; mixed skies in the morning will give way to clear skies in the afternoon. Southerly winds will pick back up to around 20 km/h in the afternoon.

Thicker cloud cover will begin to work into the region overnight ahead of a broad disturbance that begins to track across the Prairies. This cloud will keep it warmer overnight with lows only around 0 °C.

On Sunday, the first notable weather in quite a while will move through the province. A broad area of low pressure will track through the province, bringing a chance of rain showers to most of the region. Heading into Sunday night, a more organized area of rain will develop over North Dakota and lift northeast, bringing steadier rain to the Red River Valley and areas east. Many areas will likely see 5 to 10 mm of rain by Monday morning.

This system will keep it very mild on Sunday night with lows only around 5 °C. The rain will taper off later Sunday night.

Long Range Outlook

Despite the passage of Sunday’s system, the weather will stay seasonably mild to start next week as another low begins to track east across the southern Prairies. It will bring even milder weather to Winnipeg on Tuesday, but then it will sweep a cold front across the region that will bring a chance of rain or snow to the region.

Temperatures will be cooler in the wake of this system, but again, it looks to be short-lived as mild weather could return for next weekend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is +3 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -6 °C.

Unsettled and Windy Weekend Gives Way to Warmer Weather

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After a cold start to Friday morning, temperatures in southern Manitoba will jump back to seasonably warm values, though the weekend will end with blustery conditions and cooler temperatures after rain showers move through on Saturday.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday October 4, 2024
Despite a cold start to the day, a low pressure system over the western Prairies will push warmer temperatures back into southern Manitoba today.

Despite a frosty start to the day for many places in southern Manitoba, temperatures will quickly bounce back to above-seasonal values today. A low pressure system developing over the western Prairies will begin spreading warmer air eastwards into Manitoba. Southerly winds will pick up into the 30 gusting 50 km/h range today with sunny skies and an afternoon high in the upper teens. Those winds will continue right through the night as the low tracks through Saskatchewan, keeping temperatures mild with lows in the low teens.

Despite being relatively warm, Saturday will be a bit of an unpleasant day. The main driver for the weather will be a low pressure system crossing through the Interlake, with an energetic cold front that sweeps through later in the day. The day will start with increasing cloudiness as moderate southerly winds continue across the region. Temperatures will climb back into the upper teens as rain spreads into western Manitoba. There’s a small chance of some midday showers in Winnipeg, but the better chance for rain will develop later in the afternoon as a cold front sweeps through. Winds will shift from southerly to westerly and strengthen to 50 gusting 70 km/h as rain wraps into the region.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 21Z Saturday October 5, 2024
Strong westerly winds will blast through southern Manitoba on Saturday afternoon behind a cold front that sweeps through the region.

The rain will taper off overnight as temperatures head to a low in the mid-single digits. The winds will continue through the night, shifting to the northwest and gradually easing into the 30–40 km/h range by Sunday morning. By the end of the night, the main area of rain will be well to the east of the Red River Valley, but a couple bands of lake-effect showers may linger in the lee of the lakes into Sunday morning.

Sunday will be a cooler day with northwest winds of 30 gusting 50 km/h and a high in the low teens. Skies should clear for the afternoon bringing sunshine back to the region. Temperatures will dip close to freezing on Sunday night with clear skies and easing winds.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will bring warmer conditions back to southern Manitoba as the upper low over western Hudson Bay retreats northwards and upper ridging is able to redevelop over the Prairies. Much of the week will bring daytime highs in the upper teens or low 20s with overnight lows near the 10 °C mark. The week should also be dry with no significant precipitation in the forecast.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 14 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +2 °C.

Seasonably Cool Temperatures Ahead, Chance of Rain for Thursday

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In a stark contrast to the past weekend, a ridge of high pressure will keep temperatures seasonably cool much of this week. A passing low pressure system will bring milder temperatures on Wednesday followed by a chance of rain on Thursday.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday August 27, 2024
Seasonably cool temperatures will sit over southern Manitoba today while warmer weather builds back into the western Prairies.

An Arctic high trundling east across northern Manitoba will keep temperatures cool and the humidity dry today. A disturbance rolling across North Dakota towards Lake of the Woods will bring cloudy skies into the region later this morning. Combined with a light northeast wind, daytime highs will be cool at around 20 °C in the Red River Valley.

Skies will clear this evening as the disturbance heads off into Ontario. The Arctic high will trundle towards James Bay, shifting the light winds in the Red River Valley southerly. Temperatures will dip down to a low near 10 °C.

On Wednesday, the next weather system to impact the region will begin taking shape. A vigorous upper-level disturbance will move from the British Columbia interior into today to southern Alberta by Wednesday. As this tracks east, it will pump much warmer air back into Saskatchewan as a low pressure system develops over the central Prairies. By Wednesday morning, a low will sit over central Saskatchewan with a warm front that drops southeast across southern Manitoba and a cold front southwards towards the Montana/North Dakota border.

This system will bring southerly winds to Winnipeg on Wednesday up to around 30 gusting 50 km/h. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the mid-20s under mainly sunny skies. In the evening, a low-level jet — a corridor of fast-moving air about 1.5 to 3 km above the ground —will develop with wind speeds around 60 km/h (30–35 knots). These will help develop and sustain a band of showers and thunderstorms through the night that extend from North Dakota northwest to central Saskatchewan. For areas in southern Manitoba, there will be a low risk of a severe thunderstorm on Wednesday night with large hail and wind gusts the main hazards.

24hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 00Z Friday August 30, 2024
One model’s forecast for daily rain accumulations on Thursday; while likely too widespread, it shows that showers are possible across much of southern Manitoba on Thursday.

Temperatures will dip to a low in the mid- to upper-teens on Wednesday night with moderate southeast winds continuing.

The band of [thunder]showers will reach Winnipeg either late overnight or early Thursday morning, then sunny breaks will develop after they pass as winds shift westerly. Temperatures will climb back up to the low 20s with mixed skies and a chance of more showers in the afternoon.

Temperatures will head to a low in the mid-teens on Thursday night with partly cloudy skies and west-northwest winds of 20 to 30 km/h.

Long Range Outlook

Settled conditions will redevelop for the end of the week and into the weekend as the mid-week disturbance heads off. A ridge of high pressure will build in from the west and bring settling conditions and sunnier skies.

Daytime highs should sit in the 20 to 25 °C range through the weekend with overnight lows slumping from the mid-teens to around 10 °C.

It’s a pretty pleasant forecast, and will be a nice recovery from the intense heat and humidity the region experienced over the weekend. I hope families with kids can get out there and enjoy the final days of summer before school kicks off again!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.