An upper ridge building into the Prairies will send high temperatures back into the mid-20s across southern Manitoba.
An upper ridge will bring warm weather back to southern Manitoba this week.
The main weather-maker through the rest of the week will be an upper high that will move from the Pacific coast east towards the American Plains. It will build a strong upper ridge into the Prairies and push temperatures well above seasonal norms.
For Winnipeg, this trend will start with clearing skies today as temperatures climb to a high in the low 20s. For Wednesday and Thursday, sunny skies will blanket the region with highs climbing into the mid-20s. The winds will only be notable on Thursday where they will pick up out of the south into the 20 to 30 km/h range.
Overnight lows will range from the low to mid-teens over the next few days.
Long Range Outlook
The upper ridge will linger over Manitoba as it begins to break down near week’s end. This will mean mainly sunny conditions should continue into the weekend with daytime highs in the low to mid-20s.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 16 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 4 °C.
A persistent southerly flow over southern Manitoba will keep the seasonably warm and humid conditions in place for a for a few more days.
A stalled low over eastern Montana will continue to pump warmer air northwards into southern Manitoba this week.
A quick note to start: the lack of forecasts last week was due to the fact that I’m dealing with a long-lasting bout of COVID–19 that’s sidelined me for a while now. I’m on a [gradual] up and up now, with symptoms finally receding after testing positive on rapid tests for a whopping 11 days in a row. Not a fun time, looking forward to getting back at life.
Daytime highs in the mid-20s will continue into mid-week for the Winnipeg area as a persistent low pressure complex to the west supports a southerly flow across the region. Daytime highs for Tuesday and Wednesday will likely sit around 25 °C; it could be a touch cooler if a bit of a stronger cold pool is left behind from overnight convection, or a tad warmer if we clear out early and a stronger southerly flow can develop earlier in the day.
The humidity will also be notable for mid-September, with dew point values in the mid- to upper-teens, potentially reaching around 20 °C on Wednesday. This is more humid that the region often sees at this time of year, but the lower daytime highs in the 20s should keep the worst of the heat effects at bay. In the sun, the heat and humidity could combine to feel like it’s in the low 30s rather than mid-20s.
In addition to the seasonably mild temperatures, it will continue to be humid across southern Manitoba.
Overnight lows both tonight and tomorrow night will sit in the mid-teens.
Weather-wise, today should bring clearing skies as the disturbance that brought rain and thunderstorms to the region yesterday pushes off to the east. A few clouds will begin to build back in tonight, leading to mixed skies on Wednesday as a cold front approaches the region from the west.
A few showers are possible on Wednesday; it looks like they should be weak, though the slow-moving nature of the cold front and broad forcing could result in a narrow band of slow-moving showers that could produce some locally higher amounts in the 15 to 25 mm range. I’m doubtful Wednesday will be a “wet” day, more likely a cloudier one with the chance of passing showers.
The cloudiness and chance of showers will continue into Wednesday night.
Unsettled End to the Work Week
The low that’s been sitting to the west all week will finally get moving on Thursday, moving into southwest Manitoba on Thursday and sliding into northern Manitoba on Friday.
This will bring a notable change in the weather to southern Manitoba. To start, both Thursday and Friday could bring wet conditions to the Red River Valley. On Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will begin possible through much of south-central and southeast Manitoba as the forcing along the cold front picks up with the advance of the low. This activity will likely continue into the night as it pushes northeast.
Winds will finally shift on Thursday from the persistent southerly at 20 to 30 gusting 50 km/h seen much of this week to westerly winds of 15 to 30 km/h.
On Friday, showers in the instability on the back-side of this system may clip through southern Manitoba as cooler air moves into the region. Daytime highs will cool into the low 20s by the end of the work week.
Long Range Outlook
Heading into the weekend, more settled conditions will develop over the region as near-seasonal temperatures return. Winnipeg will see partly cloudy conditions over the weekend with daytime highs in the upper teens and overnight lows near the 10 °C mark.
This trend looks to continue into the start of next week.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 18 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 6 °C.
After a couple cooler and unsettled days, sunnier skies and warmer weather will build back into southern Manitoba this weekend.
Significantly warmer temperatures will begin to spread east across the Prairies on Saturday.
To wrap up the work week, Winnipeg will start the day with mixed skies and a slight chance of showers. A weak disturbance over the region this morning will bring that chance of unsettled weather, but it will dissipate as the day wears on. Winnipeg will likely see mixed skies continue into the afternoon as temperatures climb to around 20 °C.
Temperatures will head to a low in the 5–10 °C range tonight with light winds and clear skies.
Heading into the weekend, an upper ridge will build across the Prairies, bringing heat back to the region. Southerly winds will increase into the 20–30 km/h range on Saturday with highs pushing back into the mid-20s. The city should see partly cloudy to mixed skies through much of Saturday, but no chance of rain.
Winds will ease on Saturday night as skies clear and temperatures head down into the low teens.
On Sunday, temperatures will climb back up into the upper 20s with light winds and sunny skies. It will cool down overnight back to the low teens again.
Long Range Outlook
The upper ridge will continue to pump heat into the region to start next week, sending daytime highs close to around 30 °C. Much of next week will bring seasonably hot conditions with highs mainly in the 25–30 °C range.
There’s little to no chance of rain until the second half of the week, but the most likely chance for rain will develop towards the weekend when the upper ridge begins to break down and cooler temperatures begin to push back into southern Manitoba.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.
There will be a couple more hot days in Winnipeg before a cold front sweeps through the province and ushers in much cooler conditions for a few days.
Southern Manitoba will have another couple days of warm weather before a strong cold front pushes through the region.
A weak upper ridge building east across the Prairies will bring warm weather to southern Manitoba over the next couple days. In Winnipeg, temperatures will climb to a sunny high near 30 °C today and into the mid-20s on Wednesday. Southerly winds of 30–40 km/h will build into the region today and ease into the 20–30 km/h range tonight. Temperatures will dip down to an overnight low in the upper teens tonight.
A trough of low pressure will move through on Wednesday morning, bringing mixed skies and lighter winds. Skies will clear through the day with northwest winds up to 30 km/h developing for the afternoon. There may end up being a low chance of isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms, but it does not look likely right now.
A more substantial pattern change will occur on Wednesday night, marked by a strong cold front that pushes into the region overnight. This will bring northerly winds up to 40 gusting 60 km/h to the region as a colder air mass moves in. The cold front will bring a chance of showers to the region on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures will head to a low in the low teens on Wednesday night.
Much cooler conditions will move into the region on Thursday, marked by an Arctic high building across the Prairies. Temperatures will struggle back to the mid-teens on Thursday with cloud cover breaking up through the day.
Temperatures will head down into the mid-single digits on Thursday night with clearing skies and easing winds.
Long Range Outlook
Friday will bring more cool weather to the region with sunny skies and a high in the upper teens. It iwll be another cool night with lows in the mid-single digits on Friday
Light southerly winds will redevelop on the weekend, marking the start of a gradual trend towards warmer weather. By next week, the region will be back to daytime highs in the mid- to upper 20s and overnight lows in the low teens.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 21 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 9 °C.
