Seasonal Conditions Settle in for the Week

Conditions across the Red River Valley will settle into a nearly statistically perfect normal through the rest of the week. Pleasant and benign fall conditions will continue for Winnipeg right through the weekend. On the plus side, Halloween will be much more pleasant this year than the region saw last October!

Conditions across the Red River Valley will settle into a nearly statistically perfect normal through the rest of the week. Pleasant and benign fall conditions will continue for Winnipeg right through the weekend.
A ridge of high pressure will push into southern Manitoba this week while the cold air is locked away further to the north.

Settled conditions will sit over much of Manitoba this week as a high pressure system builds in from the west. This will result in a boring weather week for the Winnipeg area; daytime highs will settle to the mid-single digits with lows dipping to the mid-minus single digits most nights. The region will see variable cloudiness over the next several days, but no notable precipitation is in the forecast.

A disturbance will track southeast of the region overnight into Wednesday, but its rain should stay well to the southeast. There is a slight chance of some lake-effect precipitation in its wake on Wednesday, but that would most likely only come from Lake Winnipeg and track southeast, leaving the Red River Valley unaffected.

For Halloween, it continues to look vastly superior to last year’s frozen tromp through a windy snowscape. By evening, temperatures will sit near +2 °C and slowly dip to around freezing by midnight. Winds will be calm under partly cloudy skies.

Long Range Outlook

There’s little change in the weather ahead, with seasonal conditions lasting right into next week. There looks to be a chance of rain next Monday with the potential for some seasonably mild conditions next week.

There’s little indication of any major cold snap or pattern change heading right into the second week of November. The beautiful fall conditions continue for Winnipeg!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 5 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -4 °C.

Pleasant Fall Weekend Ahead

It will be a pleasant weekend for the Winnipeg region with plenty of sun and near-seasonal temperatures.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast  valid 21Z Saturday October 26, 2024
Pleasant late-fall temperatures will settle over southern Manitoba this weekend.

The week will end with settled conditions as an area of high pressure moves across the province. Northwesterly winds of 20 to 30 km/h will ease tonight as the ridge builds in, then gradually shift southerly and then easterly over the following 24 hours. Temperatures will climb to a high near 10 °C both today and Saturday, but tonight will be colder than Saturday night. Expect a low closer to -5 °C tonight and dipping just below freezing on Saturday night.

Both days should bring plenty of sun to the region, but some warmer air beginning to push towards the region on Saturday will bring mixed skies into the afternoon.

On Sunday, a more organized southerly flow will develop over the region in response to a low developing in Alberta. This will likely result in southeasterly winds that pick up into the 20–30 km/h range by evening and then strengthen into the night. It will be warmer on Sunday with a high in the low teens and a low on Sunday night that stays in the 5–10 °C range. Skies will likely be a mix of sun and cloud.

Long Range Outlook

Next week looks to start off warm with a high in the mid-teens under sunny skies on Monday. After that, seasonal temperatures will filter back into the region for the rest of the week. No precipitation is in the forecast until close to Halloween.

For Halloween, guidance largely continues to suggest a pleasant day overall with a high in the mid-single digits that drops close to freezing for the evening. Still looking like a solid improvement from what the region saw last year!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 7 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -3 °C.

Seasonably Warm Temperatures Returning Later This Week

The Winnipeg area will see one more cool fall day before warmer weather begins to push back into the region again.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday October 17, 2024
An upper ridge will spread warmer temperatures back into southern Manitoba this week.

A stubborn high pressure system will keep cooler temperatures in place across southern Manitoba today. After a frosty start to the day, winds will pick up out of the south into the 20 to 30 km/h range today with daytime highs around the 10 °C mark this afternoon. Things will begin to change tonight, though, as an upper low to our east begins to move off and an upper ridge starts to build across the Prairies. With warmer temperatures beginning to spread into the southern Prairies, temperatures will only dip into the mid-single digits tonight. Winds will persist out of the south around 20 km/h.

The Winnipeg area will have mainly sunny skies for much of the rest of the week. As the upper ridge builds in, daytime highs will climb close to 20 °C with southeasterly winds gradually strengthening up to 40 gusting 60 km/h for Thursday. Overnight lows will climb towards the upper single digits.

Long Range Outlook

A low pressure system will push through the province on Friday, bringing a chance of showers that will be highest east of Winnipeg and cooler temperatures. Daytime highs will dip back into the low teens for Friday and Saturday, the former bringing cloudier skies to the area while the latter is much sunnier. Another push of warmer weather is possible for Sunday and/or Monday, then the upper pattern begins to change.

Cooler temperatures and a chance of rain is possible in the first half of next week, returning the region back to seasonal temperatures.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 0 °C.

Cooler Weather Settles In

Just like that, fall weather has arrived in the Red River Valley with temperatures over 10 °C cooler than seen on the weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Friday October 4, 2024
The first freeze of the season could arrive by Friday morning.

Today marks the start of fall weather in southern Manitoba, courtesy a much cooler air mass brought in by yesterday’s cold front and very gusty winds. This change reflects a major shift in the large-scale weather pattern; the upper ridge over the Prairies has collapsed, and a quasi-stationary upper low is becoming established over the western coast of Hudson Bay. This change will result in a more west to northwest flow aloft over Manitoba, ushering in seasonal conditions for this time of year.

The result will be a week filled with daytime highs in the mid-teens and overnight lows dropping into the 0 to 5 °C range with a risk that we may see the first frosts of the season.

For a bit more detail, today will bring cloudier conditions with lighter winds than yesterday. A high pressure system passing to the south will spread southwest winds of 20 to 30 km/h into the region as temperatures climb into the mid-teens. A weak disturbance slumping southeastwards across the Prairies will keep conditions cloudy tonight; this will ensure that the overnight low stays mild (for this week) at around 10 °C.

Another cold front will sweep through on Wednesday, bringing gusty northwesterlies and cooler temperatures back to the region. With the cooler temperatures moving in and the prolonged northwesterly flow, some lake-effect showers may develop. Winds will likely keep these north of Winnipeg, but worth noting the possibility for areas in the northern Red River Valley.

A ridge of high pressure will push into the province behind the front, bringing clearing skies and sending overnight lows to near-freezing for the rest of the work week. A widespread freeze could be possible over southern Manitoba overnight Thursday into Friday morning.

Long Range Outlook

A moderating trend will develop over the weekend across southern Manitoba with daytime highs heading back towards the upper teens. Overnight lows will also follow the warming trend, likely heading back into the 5–10 °C range through the weekend.

The region will see variable cloudiness, but little to no precipitation is expected.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 15 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +3 °C.