Tag: mild

Mild Weekend Welcome, But A Mixed Bag Otherwise

Brad Leave a comment

Temperatures over the next few days will be positively balmy for early January in Winnipeg as daytime highs near -5°C over the next few days keep us well over the normal high of around -13°C for this time of year. The warm temperatures are a welcome reprieve from the bitter cold that has gripped the province over the last month, but the other aspects of the weather will be a bit of a mixed bag over the next few days as multiple low pressure systems move through the region.

Friday
-5°C / -15°C
Cloudy with flurries beginning midday. Clearing overnight.
Saturday
-7°C / -12°C
Mixed skies and a bit cooler.
Sunday
-3°C / -15°C
Mixed skies with a chance of flurries in the morning and evening.

Today will be a pleasant day with fairly light winds and a high of around -5°C. Skies will remain cloudy through the day and we’ll likely see some scattered flurries develop through the Red River Valley midday as a very weak low pressure system pushes through. This evening will see any remaining flurries push off to our east with clouds scattering out overnight as we drop to a low of around -15°C.

Saturday will be a slightly cooler, thanks to a weak ridge passing over the Red River Valley, but nice day with a mixed sky and a high near -7°. We’ll drop only to around -12°C Saturday night as a warm front moves through the area associated with an incoming clipper system from Alberta. A band of light snow should push through the Red River Valley overnight into early Sunday morning with no real significant accumulations other than perhaps a couple centimetres here or there; the bulk of the snowfall will remain in the Interlake where around 2-5cm of snow is expected. Perhaps the bigger impact of the system will be the strong winds that move into the region on Saturday night; we’ll see them increase out of the south to 40 gusting 60km/h which will likely produce some blowing snow on highways throughout the Red River Valley.

After things clear out on Sunday morning we’ll actually be in for quite a nice day with a high near -3°C. Skies will be mixed for much of the day before more cloud moves into the area in the evening hours as a cold front slumps southwards towards the Red River Valley. The chance for some light flurry activity will re-emerge on Sunday evening with the passage of the cold front but as with the rest of the features this weekend, no significant amounts are expected.

Warmer weather is expected to continue through much of next week. A storm system is currently forecast to move through on Wednesday night, which could bring blizzard conditions to the Red River Valley thanks to very strong northwesterly winds, will likely bring cooler weather for the week’s end. We’re no longer in a relatively static upper-level pattern, though, so the cold air will continue trundling off to the east fairly quickly instead of sitting around here for a prolonged period.

Santa Delivers A Break From the Deep Freeze

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Merry Christmas!

All of us here at A Weather Moment would like to take just a moment to wish you and your families a very Merry Christmas! It’s been a wonderful year here at A Weather Moment and I want to thank you for dropping by — whether this is the first time you’ve ever been to the site or come here regularly — to see what we have to say about the weather. I hope that you find (or continue to find!) what we do here of value and continue to stop by for your weather forecasts, summaries and news!

Holiday Forecast

At the risk of sounding like a broken record that simply utters the phrase “deep freeze” over and over again, I’m glad to let everyone know that we all get perhaps the most wonderful Christmas gift that could be given to us this year: a break from the deep freeze. The next few days will bring temperatures near-then-surpassing our normal temperatures for this year as warmer air floods eastwards across the Prairies.

Christmas Day

-15°C / -25°C
Mixed skies with a chance of afternoon flurries.
Boxing Day

-11°C / ⇒ -10°C
Cloudy periods with seasonal temperatures. Chance of flurries in the morning.
Friday

-4°C / -17°C
Mixed skies and warm. Slight chance of light, isolated flurries.

We’ll see mixed skies today with a daytime high of around –15°C and a chance of some afternoon flurry activity as a weak upper disturbance makes it’s way over our area. No significant accumulations are expected. Winds will be a fairly steady 20km/h or so out of the northwest. We’ll continue to see mixed skies through the overnight period as the temperature drops to around –25°C.

Tomorrow will bring cloudy periods with fairly seasonal temperatures as the mercury climbs to around –11°C. A few flurries are possible in the morning as a weak upper-level warm front pushes eastwards over the Red River Valley. Winds will be fairly light out of the south at only around 15–20km/h. Overcast conditions are expected on Thursday night as a warm front pushes eastwards through the region. Little-to-no precipitation is expected with it as it manages to keep our temperature steady near around –10°C.

Friday will again bring mixed skies, although we do have a chance at becoming mainly sunny for a decent amount of time sometime between the late morning and mid-afternoon period. There’s a slight chance of an isolated flurry or two, but nothing worth going into any detail about. The temperature will climb to a balmy –4°C or so thanks to westerly winds bringing in much milder air.

GDPS precipitation accumluations from Friday evening to Saturday evening show a swath of 10-20cm of snow just north of Winnipeg.
GDPS precipitation accumluations from Friday evening to Saturday evening show a swath of 10–20cm of snow just north of Winnipeg.

Snow will push in overnight as a powerful Alberta Clipper moves into the region. It’s still too early to make any precise predictions, but it appears that the track of the system will bring the heaviest band of snow through the Southern Interlake region with anywhere from 10–20cm of new snow on the ground by the end of Saturday. Amounts drop off to 2–5cm in the Southern Red River Valley. Here in Winnipeg it could end up being a major snowfall; cold air has a tendency to be a bit of a bigger bully than the models let it be and shift storm tracks further south. It wouldn’t take too much shifting for that 10–20cm band to move right over Winnipeg. It’s all too early to tell specifics at the moment, though; it’s fairly likely we’ll see accumulating snow Friday night/Saturday morning, the only question is will it be a little or a lot? We’ll have more details on the system in Friday’s post once things have a chance to develop more.

The Weekend

Things go downhill from there, unfortunately. Another shot of bitterly cold Arctic air[1] will push into the Prairies which will push our daytime highs back into the –20’s and overnight lows to near or below –30°C. Unfortunately, it also looks like it’s going to stick around until at least the middle of next week, if not longer.

So enjoy your Christmas present of a pretty nice 3 days and get out there while you can! From all of us here at A Weather Moment, we wish you and your families a very Merry Christmas and all the best in the coming year!

  1. Have we used this phrase enough to be able to ™ it yet?  ↩

Snow-Free Start to November

Brad Leave a comment

While we mentioned the likelihood for snow or rain for today on Wednesday, things have changed thanks to a stronger-than-expected Colorado Low hitting Southern Ontario. The intensity of this system has amplified the jet stream and as a result the precipitation once expected over the Red River Valley will slide to our southwest. How will the rest of the weekend fare? Read on to find out!

Friday

6°C / -4°C
A few clouds.
Saturday

6°C / -5°C
Mainly sunny.
Sunday

7°C / 2°C
Becoming mainly cloudy. Chance of late-day showers.

We’ll see very pleasant days today and tomorrow as clouds stay mostly out of the way and we enjoy slightly above normal temperatures1 with daytime highs both days around 6°C. There will be a little more cloud today than there will be tomorrow, but it shouldn’t put a damper on either day. Overnight lows will continue to be seasonal around -5°C.

Sunday will herald the approach of the Next Big System™ to the Prairies. A low pressure system pushing out of Southern Alberta will spread cloud eastwards into Southern Manitoba through the day. While we may start off seeing the sun, by midday we should be mostly cloudy and by the late afternoon we’ll likely be completely overcast. There may be a slight chance of some isolated shower activity by late afternoon into the evening hours, however that threat would be confined strictly to areas along and north of the Trans-Canada Highway.

12hr. accumulated precipitation (liquid-eqivalent) for Sunday night.
12hr. accumulated precipitation (liquid-eqivalent) for Sunday night.

Rain showers are likely overnight into Monday morning, but no significant accumulations are expected as the bulk of the precipitation remains through the Interlake. By Monday afternoon all precipitation should have lifted north out of the Red River Valley. While this system looks like it has the potential to deliver a decent amount of snow to the Central Prairies, it looks like it will be a relative non-event here in the Red River Valley.

Things mixed for a day or two before another system tracks into Southern Manitoba mid-week.

  1. Average temperatures for the beginning of November in Winnipeg sit around 4°C. ↩

Mixed, Mild Weather Ahead

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A northwesterly flow building over the province will bring mild temperatures and bouts of unsettled weather with little in the way of severe storm threats, making for a fairly pleasant week overall.

Monday

21°C / 12°C
Mostly cloudy; clearing late in the day.
Tuesday

24°C / 13°C
Mainly sunny. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday

24°C / 12°C
Cloudy periods. Chance of showers in the evening.

Today will be marked by relatively cloudy skies with a breezy northwesterly wind as the low pressure system that brought severe thunderstorms to Southern Manitoba yesterday slowly moves out of the province. This has ushered in cooler air once again which will keep our temperatures fairly cool for the next few days – we’re expecting daytime highs to only climb into the low-to-mid 20’s and overnight lows to sit near the 12–13°C mark.

Tuesday will be a pleasant day with mainly sunny skies and a high near 24°C and while there’s a chance of a shower or thunderstorm on Tuesday evening, it really is an outside chance and much more likely to happen over SW Manitoba than over the Red River Valley.

500mb upper trough approaching Manitoba from the Northern Prairies on Wednesday evening (from the GFS).

500mb upper trough approaching Manitoba from the Northern Prairies on Wednesday evening (from the GFS).

On Wednesday we’ll see a chance of showers later in the day under a mixed sky as a long-wave trough rotates towards Southern Manitoba from the Northern Prairies. At this point it doesn’t look too energetic and there’s little in the way of thunderstorms expected. We’ll se a high near 22°C and a low once agin in the 12–13°C range.