Tag: Rain

Strong Winds as Rain Ends, Seasonably Cool and Dry Conditions Follow

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The rain across southern Manitoba will taper off today as very strong northwesterly winds develop across southern Manitoba. Once they ease later today, a stretch of slightly cooler, but mainly dry, conditions takes over.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 15Z Tuesday May 31, 2022
Strong to severe northwest winds will develop over parts of southern Manitoba early Tuesday morning.

A low pressure system tracking northwards out of Minnesota is the culprit for this latest batch of wet weather across the region. It will continue along the Manitoba/Ontario border today with wrap-around showers lingering through the region into the afternoon. Very strong northwest winds will develop across most of southern Manitoba this morning; sustained winds of 50–60 km/h will spread eastwards this morning, and gusts could reach as high as 80–90 km/h.

The winds will begin to ease later in the day as the low continues off into northern Manitoba. The combination of cloud cover, showers, and that northerly wind will result in a very cool day. Temperatures in Winnipeg will only reach around 10 °C this afternoon. Some clearing will develop tonight as the winds continue to ease to around 20 km/h. Temperatures will fall into the 5–10 °C range.

The weather forecast will be fairly stagnant through the rest of the week. This low moving through will stall out over northern Manitoba for a few days, keeping the weather relatively consistent across the province. Here in Winnipeg, daytime highs will generally sit in the 15–20 °C range with lows in the 5–10 °C range. Northwest winds of 20–30 km/h will be common during the days, but will slowly ease as the system in northern Manitoba weakens through the week. Morning sun with some afternoon cloud will be commonplace.

The only catch might be Thursday; there’s a chance that the Red River Valley is clipped by the remnants of this system as it exits the province. If that happens, Winnipeg would see cloudier conditions on Thursday with a chance of a few showers. It would also be cooler in that situation with highs in the 10–15 °C range.

Long Range Outlook

The end of the week and weekend is looking pleasant overall. Temperatures will nudge back towards 20 °C for the weekend with plenty of sunshine Friday through Sunday.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.

After A Mostly Dry Week, An Unsettled Pattern Returns

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Conditions will turn unsettled over southern Manitoba as a deep upper trough develops over western North America this weekend.

RDPS 500 mb Wind & Height Forecast valid 00Z Monday May 30, 2022
A deep upper trough will develop over western North America in the coming days, sending Manitoba into a wet and unsettled stretch of weather.

The weather will change over the next few days as an upper low off the west coast moves onshore. As it moves into British Columbia, an upper trough will dig southwards over the Rockies. As it does, it will turn a relatively benign pattern over the Prairies into something much more unsettled.

After a beautiful Friday with temperatures climbing into the mid-20s, cloud will push into the Red River Valley this evening. A shortwave tracking eastwards along the U.S. border will support area of showers or thunderstorms through the night. They will develop this afternoon in southern Saskatchewan and drift into southwest Manitoba tonight. The showers will reach Winnipeg through the second half of the night, but also be weakening as they approach. It’s unlikely that there’s enough “oomph” left by morning for there to be any thunderstorms; the Winnipeg area will see a few showers taper off early Saturday.

Skies will stay cloudy most of Saturday with a few sunny breaks possible in the afternoon. Temperatures will climb to around 20 °C, perhaps warmer if a bit more sun is able to peek out. More cloud will push in on Saturday evening as temperatures dip into the low teens.

The next disturbance will begin lifting northwards through the Dakotas on Saturday night. A broad area of showers and/or thunderstorms will develop across North Dakota on Saturday night and lift northwards. They’ll move into Manitoba early Sunday, and continue northwards through the day. Much of southern Manitoba will see showery conditions through Sunday with increasing humidity as the day progresses. While rainfall will be highly variable, it’s likely that much of the southern Manitoba will see 10–25 mm of rain through Sunday. Locally, depending on the strength of the convection, rainfall totals could reach 25–50 mm.

Temperatures will stay mild, though, with highs near 20 °C and a low on Sunday night in the mid-teens. Cloudy weather will continue on Monday with a chance for a few showers. Another disturbance is forecast to move through on Monday night which may bring more showers and thunderstorms to the region. With humid air in place, rainfall could be quite heavy. This will be a concern given the flood concerns that continue in parts of the province.

Long Range Outlook

Some more showers are possible Tuesday into Wednesday as yet another disturbance moves through the region. Cooler weather with with isolated to scattered showers will move in mid-week. The weather will finally stabilize for the end of the work week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.

Unsettled Days Ahead

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Winnipeg will see unsettled days ahead as several disturbances move through the region.

RDPS 24hr. Accumulated Precipitation Forecast valid 18Z Wednesday May 18, 2022
The RDPS forecast model shows a notable swath of rainfall accumulation from Tuesday afternoon across several water-logged regions of Manitoba.

A slow-moving low pressure system moving across the region will bring cloudier, showery weather to southern Manitoba over the next couple days. Showery conditions will develop this morning over southwestern Manitoba and spread into the Red River Valley by late morning. The rain will be spotty through midday, but will likely become a bit more organized through the afternoon. The showers will taper off this evening, but that won’t be the end of things.

Today’s showers will come from a leading impulse, while tomorrow will bring the actual low pressure system through the region. More showers will push into the Red River Valley early Wednesday morning. The region will see a chance of showers or thunderstorms through Wednesday morning. The instability will ease through the afternoon, leaving just a few lingering showers.

This system will bring as much as 5–10 mm of rain through most of the Red River Valley, but the rain will be more organized to the north. From the Parkland area eastwards across the Interlake, 10–25 mm of rain will fall over the next couple days.

Another low pressure system will move into the region on Thursday, associated with a deep upper trough sinking into the Prairies from the north. It will bring more rain to the region, spreading from western Manitoba in the morning to the Red River Valley in the afternoon. This system could bring a wide swath of 10–25 mm of rain to much of southern Manitoba.

GDPS 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 00Z Saturday May 21, 2022
Most forecasts show another 5–20 mm of rain across much of southern Manitoba with the system moving through on Thursday into Friday.

Northerly winds will strengthen over the region on Friday in the wake of Thursday’s low. While it will help clear things out, a few afternoon pop-up showers will be possible.

This unsettled patter will be marked by seasonably cool temperatures. The Winnipeg area will reach a high in the mid-teens today, then drop into the low teens for Wednesday and Thursday. Both Thursday and Friday will bring highs near 10 °C. Overnight lows will gradually drop into the low single digits as the week progresses.

Long Range Outlook

Conditions should stabilize on the weekend, with a return of seasonal temperatures by Monday. The next chance of rain looks to be on Tuesday night when another upper disturbance pushes across the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 6 °C.

Cooler, Drier Weather Ahead for Winnipeg

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After a windy day today, conditions will settle down with a stretch of cooler and drier weather ahead.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday May 14, 2022
Cooler conditions will settle into the eastern Prairies in the wake of Friday’s passing low pressure system.

With the overnight rain now well to the north, the weather in Winnipeg today will be marked by the passage of a strong low pressure system to the west. As it lifts northwards, southerly winds will strengthen over the Red River Valley. Most areas will see winds as high as 50–60 km/h this afternoon with gusts up to 80 km/h possible. Skies will stay mostly cloudy through the morning, with more breaks in the cloud developing this afternoon. Conditions should be drier though, with just a chance of some scattered afternoon showers. Temperatures will hover in the low teens through the day today.

The low will push off into northern Manitoba tonight, bringing a bit of clearing into the region as the winds ease to around 30 gusting 50 km/h. Temperatures will dip down to the upper single digits. Some more cloud will push back into the region later on Saturday as an upper-level disturbance skirts along the border. This will also bring a few showers to the region that taper off in the evening. It will be another breezy day with southwesterly winds of 30–40 km/h.

Temperatures will be cool on Saturday and for several days after that. A northwesterly flow will usher in a high pressure system from the Arctic over the next few days. Daytime highs will be well below seasonal, particularly on Sunday and Monday. Daytime highs will struggle to climb much higher than 10 °C on either of those days. Overnight lows will also dip into the low single digits, with even a chance that we might dip below freezing on Monday night. The upside to the cooler conditions is that it will also bring drier weather. No significant rain is in the forecast for the next several days.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will begin to creep back towards seasonal values in Winnipeg towards the middle of next week. Showers will be possible through the second half of the week, but at this point it doesn’t look like they’ll produce very significant amounts of rain for the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 19 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 5 °C.