Tag: Rain

More Unsettled Weather Ahead For Winnipeg

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Southern Manitoba will see a mix of weather this week with more rain on Thursday.

NAM 24hr. Accumulated Precipitation Forecast valid 12Z Friday May 13, 2022
Southern Manitoba will see another soaking on Thursday with a widespread 15–30 mm of rain across many areas and some locally higher accumulations.

The region will get a bit of a chance to dry out today, a welcome change after the 15–25 mm of rain seen across most of the region yesterday. Sunnier skies will send highs near 20 °C, but it will be windy this afternoon. Southwest winds will pick up into the 40–50 km/h range this afternoon.

The winds will taper off this evening as a ridge moves across the region. Lows will dip into the upper single digits. More cloud will push into the region early Wednesday morning as a push of warmer air begins moving in aloft from the Dakotas.

Wednesday will bring cloudy skies to the region with a chance of showers a warm front slowly continues northwards towards southern Manitoba. Temperatures should climb into the upper teens with northeast winds picking up to 20–30 km/h through the afternoon. A few sunny breaks might materialize later in the day, but skies will cloud back over in the evening.

The next storm system to impact the region will begin its approach on Thursday night. It will spread showers and thunderstorms into the Dakotas as it moves northwards, reaching the Manitoba border by Thursday morning. A broad area of rain will move through the region on Thursday, bringing another 15–30 mm of rain to the Red River Valley. A few embedded thunderstorms will be possible and could result in locally higher rainfall accumulations. A more organized thunderstorm threat will develop late in the day, but will highly likely be for southeastern Manitoba into MN/ND. The rain will taper off by Thursday evening with just a few lingering showers hanging around until Friday morning. Temperatures will sit in the mid-teens on Thursday with breezy northeast winds.

Some sunshine will poke through later on Friday with temperatures climbing back towards the 20 °C mark. Moderate southwesterlies will develop through the day, climbing into the 40–50 km/h range.

Long Range Outlook

Cooler temperatures will build into the region for the weekend in the wake of this next storm system. Highs will fall into the 10–15 °C range with mixed skies over the weekend. Warmer weather will begin building back into the region near the middle of next week. Fortunately, it doesn’t look like any frost is in the forecast; overnight lows should drop only to the mid-single digits.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 18 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 4 °C.

Mild Spring Conditions Continue; Windy with Showers Possible This Weekend

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Temperatures will stay mild in Winnipeg through the weekend, but sunshine will give way to more chances for showers.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday May 7, 2022
Summer-like warmth will spread through southern Manitoba on Saturday.

Warmer weather will continue to push into the Red River Valley over the coming days. Daytime highs will stay in teh 20s, reaching close to the mid-20s on Saturday. This push of warmer weather is thanks to a stubborn low pressure system over the northern Prairies. It will support a southerly flow over the southeastern Prairies, drawing a consistent stream of milder air northwards. With that, though, will also come several disturbances that will also move north in the flow.

After a plenty of sunshine day today, a broken line of showers will push across the Red River Valley. Supported only by a weakening trowal, the showers won’t likely amount to much. Skies will clear out overnight as temperatures dip into the low teens.

Saturday will be a slightly more interesting weather day across the region. Off to a sunny start, the day will warm up quickly. Winnipeg should reach 20 °C by noon, and climb close to 25 °C in the afternoon. Of note will be that it will become quite windy in the afternoon with strong southerly winds of 50–60 km/h. This will be particularly concerning as the winds will generate significant wave action on the flood waters through the valley. This will produce stress on flooded roads and flood barriers in place; consult local EMOs on whether you might need to take any additional action to reinforce any personal flood protection structures.

Later in the day, cloud will push into the region as a low pressure system lifts from eastern Montana into western Manitoba. This low will support an area of rain that moves through southeast Saskatchewan into western Manitoba through the day.

For our region, showers will likely develop late in the day as a cold front starts pushing eastwards towards the Red River Valley. By evening, the forcing of the cold front will combine with a strengthening low-level jet, triggering a line of showers and thunderstorms. The storm environment is even relatively supportive for this time of year. As long as the forecasted moisture advection from the American Plains is able to materialize, the storms will have a moderate amount of energy to work with and ample wind shear to organize it.

The storms will likely trigger close to the Saskatchewan border, then move east-southeast. Some of these storms may be severe with the potential for damaging hail and strong wind gusts. As the line approaches the Red River Valley, it will dig into the low-level jet, developing southwards. As a result, the storms in Manitoba will weaken as they head into the Red River Valley, making it more likely that our area sees some collapsing showers or weak thundershowers, although stronger storms could linger closer to the U.S. border.

3km NAM Simulated RADAR Reflectivity Forecast valid 01Z Sunday May 8, 2022
Thunderstorms are likely over southwestern Manitoba on Saturday afternoon, pushing towards the Red River Vally into the evening hours.

Temperatures will drop down to around 10 °C on Saturday night. Showers will be possible through the night.

On Sunday, the region could see some morning showers but its highly dependent on the evolution of this system. The rest of the day will bring mixed skies to the region as we sit on the edge of a system passing to the east. Temperatures will still be mild with highs in the upper teens.

Long Range Outlook

On Monday, another disturbance will move into the province bringing more showers and a risk of thunderstorms to the region. After that, a couple nice days are in store, then another chance of showers or thunderstorms will develop later in the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 17 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 3 °C.

More Rain Heading to the Red River Valley

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Another low pressure system in the Dakotas will send waves of rain into Southern Manitoba this weekend.

RDPS 10m Wind and MSLP Forecast valid 18Z Saturday April 30, 2022
A potent low pressure system will move through South Dakota on Saturday.

The first wave of rain is developing over North Dakota today and will push across the border later this afternoon. This rain will continue north through the night, likely with some embedded thunderstorms as well. For many areas, the rain will be showery and transient; the most consistent rain will likely develop along a line that runs from the Pilot Mound region northeastwards across the southern Interlake. By Saturday morning, 25–50 mm is likely near the U.S. border with 15–25 mm further north near the Trans-Canada Highway.

Rain will continue on Saturday, fairly consistently along the SW-NE line from Pilot Mound Area through the Interlake. Southeast of this, a few showers are possible in the Red River Valley, followed by a more organized surge of rain midday through the afternoon. A few thunderstorms could again be seen with this area of rain.

The rain will turn more showery late Saturday and begin tapering off from west to east. A few showers will likely persist Saturday night over the Red River Valley and SE Manitoba.

RDPS 48 hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 18Z Sunday May 1, 2022
Much of southern Manitoba will see notable rainfall accumulations from Friday night through Sunday.

Drier weather will gradually work into the region on Sunday. By the end of this system, many parts of south-central and eastern Manitoba will receive, in total, 25–50 mm of rain. The heaviest rain will likely occur from Pilot Mound eastwards into the Red River Valley with accumulations of 40–50 mm. Winnipeg will also see substantial rain with 25–40 mm likely. A secondary axis of heavier rain will also extend along that SW-NE line across the southern Interlake with generally 25–35 mm along it.

Long Range Outlook

Fortunately, this looks to be the end of the wet weather for a while. Long-term forecasts all agree: next week will be dry with a dramatic rise in temperatures. The sun should reappear for Tuesday, and daytime highs will climb closer to 20 °C by the end of the week!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 16 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 2 °C.

A Slow Crawl Towards Seasonal Conditions Begins; More Rain Possible Next Weekend

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Southern Manitoba will see a very slow shift back towards more seasonal spring weather over the next week. Another storm system will impact the region this weekend, but its impact isn’t quite clear yet.

ECMWF 10m Winds and MSLP Forecast valid 12Z Tuesday April 26, 2022
A sprawling Arctic high will influence southern Manitoba right through the week.

The weather over the next few days will be dominated by a stubborn Arctic high lingering over the region. It sits on top of the province today, then gradually shift into NW Ontario over the next 36 hours. Southern Manitoba will continue to see a ridge of high pressure hang back across the region. This ridging will stick around until a developing storm system in the United States finally weakens it at the end of the week.

Its presence will be a bit of a mixed bag. On one hand, it will keep temperatures cool over the region. On the other, it will help deflect some weaker lows over the western Prairies away. This will keep conditions dry through the rest of the work week; a welcome outcome considering the flooding in the wake of the weekend’s storm.

For Winnipeg, this will mean that the city sees a fair amount of sunshine over the next couple days. Today’s high will be a few degrees above freezing, then increasing into the 5–10 °C range on Wednesday.

Thursday will bring some cloud to the region as an upper frontal wave pulls away from a low over the northwestern Prairies. There could be a few showers that skirt the region later in the day, but amounts would likely be very light

Skies will continue to be cloudy on Friday, this time due to another significant storm system taking shape in the United States.

Daytime highs will likely hover close to 10 °C both Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will increase from several degrees below zero tonight to the mid-single digits by Friday.

Long Range Outlook

Unfortunately, it looks like southern Manitoba could be in for more rain to end the week. This system — a sort of “Utah Low” — won’t have quite as much energy as the weekend’s Colorado Low. It will still be a substantial storm in its own right, though.

There is, unlike the previous two storms, significant uncertainty with this one. Forecast models have been flopping around, placing the precipitation right across southern Manitoba, keeping it almost entirely south of the border, or shifting it into SE Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba.

So at this point, it’s still too early to say with much skill where the rain is going to show up. But there is pretty good agreement that this system will be capable of producing 25–50 mm of rain somewhere in the southeastern Prairies.

ECMWF 10m Wind and MSLP Forecast valid 12Z Sunday May 1, 2022
While there’s disagreement about where the rain will fall with this weekend’s system, all forecast models are producing a moderately strong low pressure system over the Dakotas and Minnesota.

If that rain did fall over the Red River Valley, it would be a significant concern. Not only is the ground very saturated in most areas, it would also coincide with the second crest of the Red River travelling northwards.

Should the rain fall further west, that would also be a concern. It would likely impact many areas that have seen substantial snowfall amounts over the past two weekends. This would help accelerate the melt and could present flooding risks in some of those areas as well.

So probably not a welcome storm in any situation. We’ll keep a close eye on it as it develops and have a full forecast later in the week.

If you have a property that experienced flooding issues this past weekend, it may be prudent to plan possible flood mitigation efforts in case this storm ends up impacting your area again.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 14 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 1 °C.