Warm and Unsettled; Hazardous Air Quality Event Ahead

Winnipeg will continue to see hot summer conditions, but with a couple chances for some rain over the coming days. Smoke will be a significant issue as well with extremely poor air quality later today into Tuesday.

Winnipeg will see light northerly winds today in the wake of a cold front that slumped through the region overnight. Temperatures won’t cool too much today, though, with a high in the upper 20s to 30 °C. More notable will be the switch to smokier conditions in the wake of the front. The front itself has brought some smoke into the region, and the northerly winds will continue to advect smoke southwards. In the evening, a thick plume of smoke will begin moving into the region as winds shift to the northeast.

Smoke models have been very consistent in the production of this smoke plume. Forecasts show it moving in today with the worst conditions spreading from east to west through the night. While the worst will have passed for Tuesday, conditions will stay very poor through the day. People with sensitivities to air quality will want to minimize outdoor activities while most others should reduce or eliminate outdoor activities if possible.

Wildfire Surface PM2.5 Contribution Forecast valid 12Z Tuesday July 20, 2021
Much of southern Manitoba will see extremely poor air quality on Tuesday as thick plumes of wildfire smoke advect westwards across the province.

On Tuesday, a disturbance moving through the region will bring cloudier conditions to the region (not that you’d tell the difference much with all the smoke) and a chance of showers. If the region is able to get rain, that could work to help clean out the air a bit. The smoke and cloud will keep things cooler with a high in the mid- to upper 20s. A much warmer air mass is moving into the region and the overnight low reflects it. Temperatures will only drop into the low 20s in Winnipeg on Tuesday night.

There’s a small chance of showers or thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. After that clears, the region should see partly cloudy skies for the rest of Wednesday. Temperatures will climb back to around 30 °C. Winds will be out of the southeast for much of the day and relatively light at 15–25 km/h. These southeasterly winds will likely bring a gradual improvement to air quality through the day.

Long Range Outlook

The rest of the week looks warm with highs in the low 30s and lows in the upper teens or low 20s. Latest forecasts show the most intense part of the heat wave stalling a bit west of Winnipeg. This would put the city in a position to potentially see variable cloudiness and a greater likelihood of showers or thunderstorms. Given the intense drought over the region, any opportunities for rain will be welcome news.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Cooler Weather Ahead

Winnipeg will see relief from the heat this week as an Arctic high brings slightly below seasonal temperatures to the region.

A series of cold fronts sweeping through the province over the last 24 hours are ushering in cooler temperatures from the north, bringing an end to the intense heat that’s been in place over the region. This cooler air mass will be brought by a sprawling Arctic high building into the Prairies.

Winnipeg will see a seasonably warm day today with a high near 26 °C under mainly sunny skies. Winds will pick up out of the north into the 30–40 km/h range for the afternoon. The clouds will thicken up heading into the evening as an upper-level disturbance pushes into the region. Another cold front will push through at the surface tonight, keeping winds up at around 20 km/h. This upper-level disturbance will bring a chance of rain to the city, but the cold front will likely shunt everything southwards a bit. It’s likely that the rain moving through will just glance Winnipeg, or move completely south of the city. Temperatures will head to a low near 11 °C.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Monday July 5, 2021
The southern Prairies will see seasonably warm conditions today, but a cold front pushing southwards will bring cooler temperatures for Tuesday.

Winnipeg will find itself behind a second cold front on Tuesday with much cooler weather. Temperatures will climb to a seasonably cool 21 °C with partly cloudy skies as the overnight system clears out. The wind will keep put out of the north-northeast at 20–30 km/h. These winds may bring plumes of smoke into the region from fires burning east of Lake Winnipeg. How thick the smoke ends up being depends on a lot of nuance. If you have sensitivities to smoke, be sure to keep on the lookout for any special air quality statements issued by ECCC. Winds will ease Tuesday night with temperatures heading to a low near 10 °C.

Winnipeg will see plenty of sunshine on Wednesday with a near-seasonal high near 25 °C. Winds will be light through the day, and any smoke is left in the area should clear out early. Otherwise, it should be a beautiful day for the city. Temperatures will head to a low near 14 °C on Wednesday night with an increasing southerly wind.

Long Range Outlook

Unsettled conditions will develop over the region on Thursday as a warmer air mass begins to return. Winnipeg will see cloudier conditions on Thursday with a chance of showers, followed by a bit more sun and warmer temperatures on Friday. The heat is back for the weekend with highs in the low 30s and overnight lows in the upper teens.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Warm Weather Ahead

Warm summer weather will continue through the weekend in Winnipeg.

Summer heat returns to southern Manitoba with highs in the low 30s today. Winnipeg will see temperatures climb to a high near 30 °C before a cold front begins slumping into the region. As the front moves in this afternoon, the city will see increasing cloud cover with a good chance of showers. There will also be a chance for a few thunderstorms afternoon with a small chance of a marginally severe thunderstorm. The primary threats from any thunderstorms that develop would be damaging hail and/or damaging wind gusts. The showers and thunderstorms will push off into northwestern Ontario this evening.

The city will see a breezy start to the day with southerly winds of 30 gusting 50 km/h. The winds will ease midday as the cold front approaches, then pick up out of the northwest to 30 gusting 50 km/h this evening. Skies will clear out with easing winds overnight as temperatures head to a low near 13 °C.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Wednesday June 23, 2021
Hot weather will push back into southern Manitoba today with highs in the low 30s along and south of the Trans-Canada Highway.

Winnipeg will see a quieter day on Thursday with sunshine in the morning and a few clouds in the afternoon. Temperatures will climb to a high near 27 °C with a northwest breeze around 20 km/h. Heading into the evening, an upper-level disturbance tracking along the international border will spread more cloud into the region. Showers will push into southwestern Manitoba in the evening, then onwards towards the Red River Valley. There will be a chance for Winnipeg to see some rain from this overnight, but the rain may end up slumping a bit further south and missing the city.

Temperatures will head to a low near 15 °C on Thursday night.

On Friday, a broad ridge of high pressure will bring plenty of sun to the region. Temperatures will again climb to a high near 27 °C with light winds. More cloud will push into the region on Friday night ahead of another disturbance moving into the region from the northwest. Temperatures will head to a low near 16 °C overnight.

Long Range Outlook

Warm weather will continue through the weekend in Winnipeg with highs in the upper 20s and lows in the mid-teens. The city will likely see mixed skies on Saturday with a chance of showers or thunderstorms later in the day, while Sunday should bring more sun back to the region. A potent upper high building into the Prairies next week will bring an extended period of sunny weather with highs in the upper 20s or low 30s.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 12 °C.

A Cooler Weekend Ahead for Winnipeg

A series of low pressure systems will bring cooler weather to Winnipeg for the weekend.

A cold front sweeping through the Red River Valley will bring substantially cooler temperatures to Winnipeg today. The front will move through this morning and usher in moderate northwest winds up to 40 gusting 60 km/h and cloudier skies. Those northwest winds will bring notably cooler temperatures to the region; Winnipeg will see a below-seasonal high around 18 °C.

Skies will clear this evening with easing winds. Temperatures will head to a low near 9 °C.

Temperatures will rebound back to seasonal values on Saturday. A weak warm front pushing into the region will send Winnipeg’s high to around 24 °C. The city will see plenty of sun with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Temperatures will head to a low near 14 °C on Saturday night with rain likely beginning by Sunday morning.

GDPS 12-hr Accumulated Precipitation Forecast valid 00Z Monday June 21, 2020
While many weather models show rain for Winnipeg on Sunday, some—like this GDPS run—keep things dry through the Canadian Red River Valley.

Sunday will likely bring morning rain to Winnipeg as a frontal wave passes along the international border. The city could see as much as 5 to 10 mm of rain before it eases midday. For the second half of the day, the cloud cover will begin to break up as moderate northerly winds of 40–50 km/h develop. These winds will keep the temperature cooler as well; Winnipeg will see a high near 17 °C on Sunday.

Skies will clear with a low near 6 °C on Sunday night. The wind is forecast to ease into the 20–30 km/h range overnight.

Long Range Outlook

The cool weather will persist through the first half of next week. Daytime highs will gradually climb from the mid-teens to seasonal values by Wednesday. Mainly sunny conditions should be in place to start the week, but more unsettled conditions are forecast for the latter half.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 11 °C.