Tag: Rain

Severe Thunderstorm Threat To Start the Week

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Winnipeg’s week will start off with hot and humid conditions developing ahead of a trough of low pressure. As it moves into the region, it will bring a risk of severe thunderstorms beginning Monday afternoon. Unsettled conditions will continue through Tuesday before settling for Wednesday.

Today’s main weather-maker will be a trough of low pressure slowly working into the region. To start the day, the city might see some showers or thunderstorms if the overnight convection that started in Saskatchewan makes it this far. Then, temperatures will rise into the upper 20s through the morning with increasingly humid conditions. As the trough slumps southwards this afternoon, it will bring a broad severe thunderstorm threat to the region. The hot and humid conditions will provide ample energy for thunderstorms, the trough will focus development, and winds will be aligned in a way that will support long-lived thunderstorms. All manners of severe weather will be possible this afternoon and into the evening. Be sure to stay aware of any watches or warnings issued by Environment and Climate Change Canada.

ECCC is forecasting a threat of severe thunderstorms over southern Manitoba today.
ECCC is forecasting a threat of severe thunderstorms over southern Manitoba today.

You can view Environment and Climate Change Canada’s thunderstorm outlook and discussion for today in our Bulletin Viewer.

The thunderstorm threat will persist into the evening with the thunderstorm activity moving out of the province near midnight. Temperatures will dip to a low near 19°C with light winds.

Showers or thunderstorms are on the way for much of the Red River Valley on Tuesday as a low pressure system moves along the American border. Temperatures will be cooler near 23°C, but the humid conditions will stay in place. The city will see light northeasterly winds of 10 to 20 km/h through the day. Heading into the night, the city will still see a good chance for showers. As the low moves off to the east, winds will pick up out of the northwest to around 30 gusting 50 km/h and persist into Wednesday morning. Winnipeg should see a low near 16°C with some of the humidity easing overnight.

The city will see a chance for showers Wednesday morning, then skies will clear midday leaving the city with plenty of sun. Temperatures will climb to a high near 24 or 25°C with winds easing to around 20 km/h in the afternoon. The winds will usher the humidity out, making for more comfortable conditions in the afternoon. Temperatures will dip to a low near 15°C on Wednesday night with a few clouds and light winds.

While many parts of the Red River Valley will appreciate rain, it’s always difficult to pinpoint where – and how much – any one place will get when dealing with convective systems like these. That said, it seems possible that several areas may see 15 to 35 mm of rain by Wednesday morning. Locally, some areas could see less or more depending on how exactly the convection develops.

Long Range Outlook

The rest of the week will bring daytime highs in the upper 20s and overnight lows in the mid- to upper-teens. Another low pressure passing through on Thursday night will bring another chance of showers or thunderstorms to the region. Looking towards the weekend, Saturday looks quite nice, but by Sunday hot and unstable conditions are forecast to return to the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

Mixed Bag of Weather Ahead

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Winnipeg will see pleasant summer weather on Monday and Wednesday while Tuesday brings cloudier, unsettled conditions.

Winnipeg will kick off the work week with a pretty beautiful day as temperatures soar to a high near 27°C under partly cloudy skies. Winds will also stay light too, out of the west at 10 to 20 km/h. This evening, cloud cover will begin to build into the region as a disturbance approaches from the west. Heading through the night, Winnipeg will see a chance of showers with the risk of a thunderstorm. Temperatures will dip to a low near 15°C.

Tuesday will bring mostly cloudy skies to the city as the disturbance moves through the Red River Valley. The cloud cover will keep temperatures a bit cooler with a high near 23°C. Winnipeg will see a continued chance for some showers with the risk of a thunderstorm through much of the day. The wind will pick up out of the northwest in the afternoon to around 30 km/h than ease in the evening. Skies will clear out late in the day in Winnipeg and temperatures will head to a low near 12°C.

Showers or thunderstorms will move across southern Manitoba Monday night through Tuesday.
Showers or thunderstorms will move across southern Manitoba Monday night through Tuesday.

Wednesday will bring plenty of sunshine back to the region with temperatures rebounding back into the upper 20’s. Winnipeg will see a high near 27°C with westerly winds near 20 km/h. Skies will stay clear on Wednesday night with a low near 13°C.

Long Range Outlook

An upper ridge will build over the region through the second half of the week, bringing significantly warmer temperatures. High temperatures in Winnipeg will climb towards 30°C by the weekend with partly cloudy skies expected both Thursday and Friday.

The heat hits in full this weekend, with daytime highs near 30°C and overnight lows near 20°C. Conditions will become more unsettled on the weekend as more humid conditions build into the region. Both Saturday and Sunday may bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region.

Temperatures are forecast to moderate next week, with daytime highs in the mid- to upper-twenties and lows in the mid-teens.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24°C while the seasonal overnight low is 12°C.

Cloudier Conditions Ahead With A Chance of Rain

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A complicated, slow-moving upper low over the Prairies will bring cloudy conditions with a chance for showers to the Red River Valley this weekend.

Winnipeg will see mostly cloudy skies today as cloud cover moves in ahead of the upper low building into Saskatchewan. As a result, the daytime high will be a bit lower than yesterday at a seasonal 24°C. The wind will be more pronounced than yesterday too, picking up out of the southeast to 30 gusting 50 km/h. The city should stay dry through the day, but the chance for showers increases heading into the evening. Showers are likely overnight as temperatures dip to a low near 15°C.

On Saturday, Winnipeg will see more showers in the morning as an upper-level feature called a trowal1 moves through. There is still a lot of uncertainty as to how much rain will fall, but the general agreement is that much of the Red River Valley will likely see 5 to 15 mm Friday night through midday Saturday. The showers should scatter out through the afternoon hours. With all the cloud and precipitation, temperatures will be cooler with a high near 22°C in Winnipeg. Winds will continue through the day out of the south at 20 to 30 km/h.

By Saturday evening, the cloud cover should begin to break up as any remaining showers exit the region. Winds will keep out of the south near 20 km/h through the night with temperatures dipping to a low near 14°C.

Much of southern Manitoba will see showers move through Friday night into Saturday.
Much of southern Manitoba will see showers move through Friday night into Saturday.

Sunday will bring mixed skies to the city as the region moves into the dry slot of this system. With the return of some sunshine, temperatures will climb back to seasonal values with a high near 24°C. Winds will also gradually shift to the west through the day and then ease from 20 km/h to light through the evening. The city should see a low near 15°C on Sunday night.

Long Range Outlook

Much warmer temperatures will build into the region next week as a strong upper-level ridge develops over the eastern Prairies. Next week looks to be the first extended stretch of heat this summer. Daytime highs will be in the upper 20s, potentially reaching 30°C by the end of the week, while overnight lows stay in the mid- to upper-teens. Humidity levels are forecast to be comfortable through much of the week, but may begin to climb into muggier values next weekend.

Forecasts show mainly dry conditions through the week, but with the heat moving in there may be several chances for thunderstorm development.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24°C while the seasonal overnight low is 12°C.

  1. A trowal is a trough of warm air aloft, more specifically defined as the cyclonic branch of the warm conveyor belt of a mature, occluding low pressure system. ↩

Pleasant Conditions Turn Unsettled For The Weekend

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Winnipeg will see relatively pleasant conditions through the rest of the work week, but the chance for rain will return for the weekend.

Winnipeg will see mainly sunny skies today with just a few afternoon clouds thanks to a ridge of high pressure in the area. The city will see a seasonably warm high near 26°C with light southeasterly winds in the afternoon. Skies will stay mainly clear tonight with temperatures dipping to a low near 12°C.

On Thursday, a weakening low pressure system will spread showers into southwestern Manitoba, but the system will fall apart before the rain is able to make it this far east. That said, the city will see increasing cloudiness in the afternoon as the remnants of this system move into the region. Temperatures will reach a high once again near 26°C with southeasterly winds near 20 km/h. Skies will stay mostly cloudy on Thursday night with just a slight chance of showers. The city will see a low near 14°C.

Temperatures will be warm on Thursday in Winnipeg, but temperatures will remain cooler in the showers over southwestern Manitoba.
Temperatures will be warm on Thursday in Winnipeg, but temperatures will remain cooler in the showers over southwestern Manitoba.

Mostly cloudy skies will continue over Winnipeg through Friday with a chance of showers or thunderstorms developing in the evening. The cloudy skies will keep things a bit cooler; the high temperature for the city looks to be around 21°C. Winds will be a bit more pronounced on Friday as they pick up out of the southeast at 20 to 30 km/h. There will be a continued chance of showers through Friday night as the temperature dips to a low near 15°C.

Long Range Outlook

For the weekend, conditions will turn unsettled as an upper low over Alberta and Saskatchewan starts digging southwards into the United States. As pushes southwards, the upper-level flow over southern Manitoba will strengthen out of the southwest and upper-level disturbances will begin moving through the region. This will result in unsettled conditions with showers and/or thunderstorms possible both Saturday and Sunday. It’s possible that rainfall could be heavy in some of these showers and some forecast models show the potential of 25 to 50 mm of rain through portions of the Red River Valley this weekend.

Some forecasts show a wide swath of 1 to 2 inches of rain this weekend over parts of Manitoba, but there's still a lot of uncertainty as to how this system will develop through the week and into the weekend.
Some forecasts show a wide swath of 1 to 2 inches of rain this weekend over parts of Manitoba, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty as to how this system will develop through the week and into the weekend.

That said, it’s not going to rain right through the weekend; the showers will develop in waves as each upper-level disturbance moves through. Daytime highs should continue in the low 20s through the weekend.

Next week, skies look to clear out with seasonably warm temperatures right through the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24°C while the seasonal overnight low is 12°C.