Tag: Rain

Saturday Brings First Snowfall of the Season

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A low pressure system tracking along the U.S. border will bring a mix of rain and snow to southern Manitoba on Saturday, and while the Red River Valley may see a few slushy centimetres, higher accumulations of 5 to 10 cm will be possible over the southwest corner of the province. The snow will be short-lived, however, as above-seasonal temperatures are set to return next week!

Models took a quick turn after our Wednesday forecast with a dry weekend quickly turning…not so dry as they picked up on a disturbance that will track along the US border and likely bring rain and snow to southern Manitoba on Saturday. Before that, though…

Today will be a cool but beautiful day! Winnipeg will see sunny skies and westerly winds at around 15 to 25 km/h as temperatures climb to a high near 10°C. Cloud will begin pushing into the Red River Valley tonight, bringing a chance for some rain showers to Winnipeg before morning. Winds will be calm as temperatures dip to a low near 2°C.

3km NAM Forecast Precipitation Type and Intensity valid 18Z Saturday October 14, 2017
Rain showers will give way to snow from northwest to southeast across the Red River Valley on Saturday. Winnipeg will likely see the changeover occur midday.

Southern Manitoba will see a mix of precipitation through the day on Saturday. The biggest question of the day will be where the rain/snow line will set up, and right now it appears that Winnipeg will straddle that line, with a few morning showers either mixing with or changing over to snow midday. Fortunately, with near-zero temperatures, any snow will be unlikely to accumulate too much through the city, with just a slushy couple centimetres possible. Further to the west and north, more substantial snowfall is possible, with 5-10 cm possible along a line from around Estevan, SK to Virden, MB to Lake Manitoba.

We’ll definitely post an update later tonight with a revised snow/rain forecast for Saturday.

Aside from the precipitation, expect to see temperatures climb to a high just near 5°C with northeasterly winds of 15 to 25 km/h. Temperatures will dip down to around -2°C with some clear breaks overnight.

Sunday will see conditions improve, with mixed skies and a light west-southwest wind as temperatures climb to a high near 10°C. Temperatures will drop to a low slightly above freezing.

Long Range

Next week is looking fantastic for those who aren’t quite ready for the latter parts of fall. Warmer air is expected to spread eastwards across the Prairies, and while there may be a disturbance or two with a brief cool-down associated with it that moves through, temperatures will tend to remain above-seasonal.

GDPS 850mb Temperature Anomaly valid 06Z Friday October 20, 2017
Very mild air will spread eastwards across the Prairies through next week, with significantly warmer-than-seasonal temperatures (red, brown) possible at the end of the work week.

Daytime highs in the mid- to upper-teens will be common through the week, alongside variable cloudiness and few chances for rain as the main storm track appears to remain in the central and northern Prairies.

So make it through a bit of an unpleasant Saturday, and a beautiful mid-October week lies ahead.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 11°C while the seasonal overnight low is 0°C.

Another Chance of Showers As Fall Weather Continues

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Winnipeg will see temperatures return to near-seasonal values with a smattering of showers moving through the region; rather favourable conditions compared to the sub-freezing temperatures and snow building into Alberta!

The primary weather feature that will dominate over the next few days is a large low pressure system over central Saskatchewan. While this system will end up producing a wide swath of snow through Alberta into far southwestern Saskatchewan, things will remain more mild on the eastern side of the system with occasional rain the concern instead of a winter storm.

Today will bring some morning showers to Winnipeg as a shortwave lifts northwards out of the Dakotas. The rain should taper off by lunch, with a bit of sun poking out through the afternoon. Temperatures will climb to a high near 16°C with light winds picking up out of the southwest to around 30 km/h. Clouds will begin working back into the region tonight as winds taper off and temperatures dip to a low near 6°C.

RDPS 12hr. QPF valid 00Z Monday October 3, 2017
Winnipeg will find itself once again on the western edge of rain moving northwards through the Red River Valley

Mostly cloudy skies will be in place for Winnipeg on Tuesday with a chance for some more showers. Temperatures will be cooler with a near-seasonal high of 13°C and winds will remain light. Expect a low near 5°C on Tuesday night with continued cloudy skies.

Things finally change on Wednesday as the remnants of the Alberta/Saskatchewan storm move out of the region. Skies will clear out of Winnipeg through the morning, leaving us with a fair amount of sunshine for the latter half of the day. Temperatures will once again reach a high near 13°C with winds out of the southwest at 20-30 km/h. Expect partly cloudy skies on Wednesday night as temperatures head to a low near +4°C.

Long Range

The remainder of the week looks to bring seasonal temperatures and variable cloudiness. No significant rains are expected. Early indications are that Winnipeg may see another disturbance bring more rain to the region at the end of the weekend.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 14°C while the seasonal overnight low is 3°C.

Pleasant Weather Continues Through Beginning of Weekend

Brad 1 Comment

The generally mild and pleasant weather Winnipeg has seen the past couple days will continue for a few more, bringing sunshine and slightly above-normal temperatures until the next disturbance arrives in the region on Sunday.

Winnipeg is off to a chilly start today, courtesy a ridge of high pressure sitting right on top of the region that has plunged overnight lows to around the freezing mark. As the ridge moves off to the southeast today, temperatures will rebound back to seasonal values; Winnipeg should see a high near 15°C with light southerly winds and mainly sunny skies (outside of any fog that will burn off through the morning). The Red River Valley will see clear skies tonight with southerly winds increasing to 20-30 km/h by Saturday morning. Temperatures will dip to a low near 5°C in Winnipeg.

RDPS 2m Wind Forecast valid 00Z Sunday October 1, 2017
Breezy southerlies will develop as outflow from a large ridge of high pressure over Ontario is squeezed against an incoming low pressure system

Saturday will be a warm and windy day with southerly winds increasing to around 40 km/h as temperatures climb to a well above-seasonal high of 19 or 20°C. Skies will be sunny through the morning, but cloud will begin working into the region from the south later Saturday afternoon into the evening. There will be a slight chance of some showers as the low-level jet ramps up and brings some mid-level instability to the region. Temperatures will continue mild on Saturday night with a low near 13°C and breezy southerly winds continued.

NAM 12hr. QPF Forecast valid 03Z Monday October 2, 2017
Rain is possible across much of southern Manitoba on Sunday

Sunday will bring cloudy skies to the region as a low pressure system moves in from the west. Winds will continue out of the south-southeast at around 30 km/h and temperatures will be just a tad cooler than Saturday with highs near 17°C. Showers will be possible throughout much of the day, particularly in the afternoon and evening as a more organized area of rain lifts northwards out of the Dakotas. There will also be a slight chance of seeing a thunderstorm as there will be a low to moderate instability associated with this system. A chance of rain will continue on Sunday night as temperatures dip to a low near 10°C.

Long Range

Next week starts with a bit of a mixed bag; the unsettled weather will likely continue on Monday before improving in the evening, but another chance for rain looks to materialize on Tuesday afternoon. The rest of the week looks drier, but with sporadic chances for some light rain. Temperatures will continue near- to below-seasonal for much of the week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 15°C while the seasonal overnight low is 3°C.

Cool, Soggy Weather Slow to Leave

Brad 1 Comment

Although Winnipeg has seen most of the rain the city will receive during this unsettled period, the cool and soggy weather will remain in place for a couple days yet before improving for the latter half of the week.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy1 across the central and eastern Red River Valley today ahead of yet another disturbance that will lift northwards through the American Plains towards southern Manitoba. Under the cloud, there will be a continued chance for drizzle, particularly through the morning hours. The areas that may even see very heavy drizzle or showers will be south of Lake Winnipeg, where the warm lake waters will enhance the intensity of the precipitation. Temperatures will continue cool today with highs near 12°C with winds out of the north at 15-25 km/h. Skies will remain cloudy tonight with a continued chance for drizzle. Temperatures will drop to a low near 7°C while winds diminish to light.

Winnipeg NAM Forecast Sounding valid 12Z Monday September 25, 2017
Deep low-level moisture will help to sustain periods of drizzle until midday Monday.

Tuesday will bring more rain to southeastern Manitoba as another disturbance moves through Minnesota. While the rain moves through the southeastern corner of the province, portions of the Red River Valley will see a chance of rain, mainly due to uncertainty about how far west the rain will actually reach. Winds will remain light as temperatures head to a high near 12°C once again.

The rain will taper off by evening as the light winds shift to the west and temperatures drop to a low near 6°C. Skies will clear overnight.

Some models are keeping much of the rain east of the Red River Valley, while others pull westwards.

Wednesday will finally bring sunny conditions back to the region with clear skies in the morning giving way to partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Temperatures will be quite a bit warmer with highs near 19 or 20°C and westerly winds of 10-20 km/h.

Temperatures will once again drop to a low near 6°C on Wednesday night with skies clouding up again. An upper-level disturbance will swing across the Red River Valley from west to east overnight, likely bringing another batch of rain to the region with 5-10 mm possible, although amounts will likely taper off quickly to the south of the line, likely leaving portions of the southern valley with no rain.

Long Range

The latter half of the week looks to return to more seasonal temperatures as northwesterly winds move back into the region behind Wednesday night’s disturbance and a large ridge of high pressure moves in. There may end up being a significant frost risk at some point later in the week, but we’ll have to just wait and see how cool things are able to get underneath the ridge of high pressure.

There’s some indication that more unsettled conditions will move back into the region on weekend or early next week as another upper-level trough digs over the American Rockies.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 16°C while the seasonal overnight low is 4°C.

  1. Some sunshine will likely work into the western Red River Valley; if it manages to push further east, Winnipeg may end up seeing a bit more sun. ↩