A low pressure system crossing the province will bring rain to Winnipeg today, but its cold front will usher in cooler weather for the weekend.
A wintery mix will spread southwards through Manitoba today.
As we mentioned on Tuesday, a low pressure system will drop through Manitoba today, spreading a large area of precipitation across the region. An area of snow mixed with rain will spread southeastwards out of central Manitoba this morning, gradually transitioning to mainly rain as temperatures warm through the day. In Winnipeg, precipitation will begin midday; with temperatures near 0 °C, it will likely start as snow, but as temperatures climb towards a high near 5 °C in the afternoon, it will change over to rain quickly. Periods of rain will be likely through the afternoon with westerly winds up to 40 gusting 60 km/h.
In the evening, a cold front will sweep through the region and usher in northwesterly winds up to 40 gusting 60 km/h. The front will bring an end to the rain, replacing it with a chance of flurries that will last through the night and into Saturday morning. Temperatures will head to a low near -5 °C.
For the weekend, the weather will be shaped by a large Arctic high that will slowly slump into the province. This will result in a gradual break-up of the cloud cover in the region as a cooler air mass pushes into the region. Daytime highs will slump into the -5 to 0 °C range on Saturday and near -5 °C on Sunday. Overnight lows will dip down into the minus teens both nights. Winds will be breezy through the weekend with northwest winds of 30 to 40 km/h on Saturday easing into the 20 to 30 km/h range on Sunday.
Long Range Outlook
Another disturbance will pass through the region on Monday and bring another push of warmer air. Daytime highs should climb back up close to +5 °C on Monday with moderate southerly winds.
Behind this system, an upper trough is forecast to dig into the Prairies; this will bring cooler temperatures for the rest of next week with daytime highs falling below 0 °C. Much of the week will be dry, but there could be accumulating snow across southern Manitoba mid-week.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -1 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -11 °C.
A winter storm moving into the province on Sunday will bring a mix of wintery weather to southern Manitoba.
A potent winter storm will move into southern Manitoba this weekend, but Winnipeg may be spared from the worst of it.
Before the storm arrives, though, it will be a pleasant start to the weekend in Winnipeg. Temperatures will climb above freezing today as a low pressure system crosses through central Manitoba. It will drag mild Pacific air across the south, sending daytime highs into the 5 to 10 °C range through the Red River Valley.
Breezy southerly winds up to 30 gusting 50 km/h this morning will ease midday as Winnipeg moves into the warm sector of this system. The region will see mixed skies develop this afternoon, followed by more organized cloud cover as a cold front slumps into the region tonight. As the cold front moves into the region, northwest winds will pick up into the 20 to 30 km/h range and then ease overnight. Temperatures will dip to a low near -10 °C.
Saturday will bring mixed skies to the region as the next weather system to impact the region begins to take shape. Northeast winds will pick up into the 20 to 30 km/h range as a low centre begins to develop in the Northern Plains of the United States. Skies will cloud over through the day with light snow possible by the late afternoon or evening.
Temperatures will climb to a high near -5 °C by the evening and continue to rise to the freezing mark by Sunday morning. The snow will taper off overnight, leaving behind a couple centimetres, and be replaced with a risk of freezing drizzle into Sunday morning.
On Sunday, the low centre will lift out of the United States and into Southern Manitoba. This system impact the entirety of southern Manitoba and bring adverse winter storm conditions to many regions. In the sake of brevity, here’s what to expect for each weather element.
Heavy Snow
This low pressure system will spread an area of heavy snowfall across southern Saskatchewan and into southern Manitoba. Because this low will bring a surge of warm air into the Red River Valley and SE Manitoba, there is uncertainty as to how far east the heavy snow will reach.
This storm will spread heavy snow through Saskatchewan into western and central Manitoba. There is uncertainty to how far southeast the notable snow accumulations may push.
That said, through southwest Manitoba, Parkland Manitoba, and much of the Interlake, this system will bring 15 to 35 cm of fresh snow. Amounts will taper off gradually into central Manitoba and sharply into the warm sector of above-freezing air.
Freezing Rain
This system will support a band of freezing rain that develops along its advancing flank and will likely cut across the Red River Valley and SE Manitoba. Note that this risk area could shift west or east over the coming days as the system takes shape. That said, the risk of freezing rain will begin early Sunday and persist through the day. Freezing rain across southern Manitoba will come to an end on Sunday evening as the low begins to track east and colder air sweeps into the southeast corner of the province.
This storm will bring a mix of wintery precipitation to southern Manitoba.
Rain
To the east and south of the freezing rain band, temperatures will warm enough for any precipitation that falls to fall as rain. This will include much of SE Manitoba but could push as far west as Winnipeg and north as Lake Winnipeg. Rainfalls totals could reach as high as 5 to 10 mm, but much more of the precipitation should fall on the cold side of the system as snow.
Additionally, there are early signals that as the cold front wraps around this low, convective cells may develop along the rain band associated with it. A few rumbles of thunder and heavier rain showers can’t be ruled out close to the U.S. border late Sunday into the evening.
A Guess for Winnipeg?
In Winnipeg, it looks like a risk of freezing rain on Sunday morning will transition to light rain, and then to periods of snow in the afternoon as cooler air moves in. There is significant uncertainty with this, though, and even a 50 km shift in storm track could end up changing the forecast to 10 to 20 cm of snow. On the other hand, if the storm ends up 50 km further west, much of the Red River Valley, Winnipeg included, could be in this storm’s dry slot and see little beyond a couple waves of light snow or rain and a lot of drizzle.
Be sure to keep an eye for updated forecasts as the event draws near. If you’re in SW or Parkland Manitoba, be prepared for poor conditions on Sunday as a notable winter storm moves through the region.
Long Range Outlook
Light snow will taper off across central Manitoba on Monday. There may be a small chance of flurries in Winnipeg on Monday, but the activity should stay mainly to the north. The first half of next week will be cooler with highs in the -10 to -5 °C range.
Another low pressure system will slice its way northwards through Manitoba mid-week; it will bring another chance of mixed precipitation to the province and bring milder weather back to the Red River Valley and areas east.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -5°C while the seasonal overnight low is -15 °C.
Cloudy skies, mist/fog, drizzle, and mild temperatures will continue for a couple more days in the Winnipeg area. The weather will finally change across southern Manitoba on Wednesday night as a Colorado Low begins to spread waves of precipitation into the province.
Waves of mixed precipitation will move into southern Manitoba on Thursday. This Colorado Low will bring accumulating snow to most of southern Manitoba.
The next couple days in Winnipeg will bring more of what the city has seen lately: plenty of cloud, mist and fog patches, and occasional drizzle. A ridge of high pressure moving across the Red River Valley will keep things stagnant with light northerly winds. The trend of temperatures well above normal will continue with highs a couple degrees above freezing and lows right near the freezing point.
Then, the most notable weather system in weeks will begin to impact the region on Wednesday night. As I mentioned in Thursday’s post, long-range models were developing a Colorado Low-like system and pushing it quickly eastwards. I mentioned that I wouldn’t be surprised to see this system pull further west as it approached and…that’s what has happened with the forecast models over the past few days.
A Colorado Low will eject northeastwards on Wednesday, reaching South Dakota by Thursday morning and then into Minnesota by Thursday evening. As it draws closer to Manitoba, it will begin to spread waves of precipitation into the province. The first couple waves, arriving Wednesday night and Thursday morning could bring a wintery mix of snow, rain, and freezing rain to the Red River Valley. As those move off to the northwest, the region will see a break with cloudy skies and a chance of drizzle.
By later Thursday, northerly winds will strengthen across the region and begin to draw cooler air into the region. More snow will be possible Thursday evening through much of Friday before it finally tapers off.
There is a wide range of snowfall accumulations possible with this system, and at this point there is significant uncertainty as to where the axis of heaviest snow will set up in the province. In general, many areas of the province will receive 5 to 10 cm of fresh snow, with 10 to 20 cm possible in the swath of highest accumulation. Amounts could creep even higher on the northern slopes of the Turtle and Riding Mountains where northerly winds enhance the snowfall along the terrain.
With the notable uncertainty that remains with how this system will set up over the province, I recommend you check the updated forecasts on ECCC’s weather website over the coming days.
Daytime highs in Winnipeg will fall into the -5 to 0 °C range by the end of the week with overnight lows in the -20 to -10 °C range depending on how much clearing is able to move into the region.
Long Range Outlook
The weekend will bring cooler — but still above normal — temperatures to the region. Daytime highs will dip to around -5 °C with lows dependent on how cloudy the nights stay. With clearing, lows could drop into the -20 to -15 °C range, but if it stays cloudier then lows could hover near -10 °C.
Hopefully the region will see a bit of sun this weekend, but there’s a chance things do stay on the cloudier side.
Next week will continue the trend with daytime highs near -5 °C and overnight lows in the -10 to -20 °C range as light westerly winds develop over the region.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -21 °C.
Seasonably mild temperatures will continue across southern Manitoba in what has been a pleasant fall so far.
An approaching low pressure system will bring very mild late-October temperatures to southern Manitoba on Tuesday.
A low pressure system advancing towards the province will bring some cloud cover and mild weather to Winnipeg today. With skies becoming mixed this morning, temperatures will warm into the mid- to upper teens this afternoon.
The low will begin moving through the region this evening, bringing with it a chance of rain showers. The heaviest rain will likely end up southeast of Winnipeg with amounts near 5 to 10 mm. Amounts will quickly drop off to the northwest of this; Winnipeg will sit along the edge, but at least a couple millimetres of rain seems likely. It will be a warm night with a low near 10 °C.
On Wednesday, northerly winds will pick up behind the low as any lingering showers move out of the region. Temperatures will rebound back into the mid-teens with northerly winds up to 30 gusting 50 km/h. Skies will take their time clearing out, but Winnipeg will likely see a bit of sun before evening.
A ridge of high pressure will move through the province on Wednesday night and Thursday. This will allow temperatures to dip into the -5 to 0 °C range on Wednesday night. On Thursday, temperatures will bounce back into the mid-teens again as another push of warmer air moves in from the west. A weak low will slide through the region on Thursday night, bringing with it another chance for some light rain showers.
Long Range Outlook
Friday will mark the start of a gradual transition of southern Manitoba’s weather into a cooler, more unsettled pattern. On the back side of Thursday night’s low, cooler temperatures will gradually slump into the Prairies from the Arctic. As this cold front pushes south over the next week, disturbances will ripple northeastwards ahead and along it, bringing waves of rain or snow to the Prairies.
This will result in variable cloudiness turning mainly cloudy next week and gradually cooling temperatures in Winnipeg. There will be a chance of some rain on Saturday, as well as a more organized chance of accumulating rain early next week. By mid-week, lake-effect rain showers will likely return to southern Manitoba.
Daytime highs will cool to the 0 to 5 °C range with overnight lows well below freezing through this period. The region could also see some of the first snowflakes of the season late next week.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 9 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -1 °C.
