Tag: Rain

Chilly Mid-Week, Gradual Return to Above-Normal Temperatures

Brad Leave a comment

Today will be off to a chilly start as rain showers or flurries move through the Red River Valley alongside near-freezing temperatures and a gusty northwesterly wind. Fortunately, this brief outbreak of colder weather will be short-lived as above-normal temperatures gradually build back into the region for the weekend.

Cool & Soggy Wednesday

It will be cool and soggy today for Winnipeg & the Red River Valley as a brisk west to northwesterly wind carries flurries & showers through the region. Much of today’s precipitation will fall as rain, however for several hours this morning snow will be possible. No significant accumulations are expected since temperatures (and the ground) will be above zero, but it could be enough to dust grassy areas and cars.

Temperatures will be below-normal today with the high temperature topping out at just 6°C.

RDPS 12hr QPF valid for 00Z Wednesday October 28, 2015
RDPS 12hr precipitation totals valid for 00Z Wednesday October 28, 2015

The wind will be out of the north to northwest for much of the day at around 30km/h with some gustiness on top of that, however as an inverted trough passes through late in the afternoon & the pressure gradient straightens out, winds will increase to 40–50km/h this evening for several hours before tapering off as a ridge of high pressure pushes in overnight. Temperatures will drop to around 2°C overnight.

Warming Trend for Second Half of the Week

Thursday and Friday will be slightly more pleasant days with temperatures gradually returning to seasonal values. Both days will see a fair amount of cloud through the Red River Valley, although Thursday has the potential for a few more sunny breaks than Friday does. Daytime highs will be just above the seasonal value of 6°C on both days with a high of 7°C expected on Thursday and a high of 9°C on Friday. No precipitation is expected on either day and overnight lows will sit near the freezing mark both Thursday & Friday nights.

Well Above-Normal Temperatures Return for the Weekend

Snow suits will be absent for Halloween this year as temperatures some 6°C above normal will result in a relatively mild end to October.

CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook is predicting a fair chance for above-normal temperatures early next week.

Daytime highs in the low teens are expected this weekend and into the beginning of next week thanks to a broad zonal flow that will develop aloft, keeping the colder Arctic air in the north and spreading milder Pacific air across the southern Prairies.

There’s a bit of uncertainty as to precipitation; most models show a dry weekend ahead, however the GFS wants to push a disturbance through midday Saturday bringing a shot of rain to the Red River Valley. We’ll keep an eye out as that situation develops and be sure to have a complete Halloween evening forecast in our Friday forecast. Other than that, it does look like we’ll head into a more unsettled pattern next week, with potentially the first “real” snowfall of the season, so enjoy the coming mild weather while you can!

Pleasant Fall Weather Gives Way to End of Week Rain

Brad Leave a comment

The weather will be relatively pleasant for late October over the next couple days with above-seasonal daytime highs expected and a fair amount of sunshine. Things will take turn on Friday for the end of the week as a Colorado Low sets its sights on Southern Manitoba and brings a decent shot of rain along with it.

Today will see the cloudy skies that start the day gradually break up and become mixed to partly cloudy. Winds will pick up through the morning and make for a fairly windy afternoon with gusty northwesterlies at 40–50km/h. Today’s daytime high near 12°C will be around 4–5°C above the normal daytime highs for this time of year. Heading into the evening, the winds will taper off and skies will clear as a ridge of high pressure pushes into the province. Expect an overnight low near –2°C.

Thursday will be quite a pleasant day with relatively light winds at 20–30km/h out of the southeast and a high once again near 12–13°C. Clouds will move in overnight as we head to a low near 5–6°C.

Forecast 12hr. precipitation accumulations for Friday from the GDPS
The GDPS is forecasting 10-15mm of rain over Southern Manitoba on Friday.

Friday will see the Colorado Low push into North Dakota and Minnesota, spreading an area of rain northwards into Southern Manitoba. There’s a surprising amount of agreement in the track of the low, but how much rain it will produce seems to be a tough topic. The Canadian Global model, pictured above, shows around 10–15mm through the day on Friday, however I think it’s a bit on the low side. My best forecast at this point is that 10–20mm of rain should be expected through the Red River Valley and southern Interlake on Saturday, however for areas in the RRV south of Winnipeg, particularly closer to the U.S. border, 15–25mm seems like a possibility depending on a number of factors.

Alongside the rain, our daytime high will climb to around 9°C. Winds won’t be too much of an issue and will remain relatively light out of the southeast switching to northwest in the evening. In the evening we’ll see the last of the rain taper off and head to a low near 4°C.

Cooler air looks to push in through the weekend behind the low, so enjoy the milder temperatures today and tomorrow!

Hang onto your Hat! Severe Wind Storm for Thanksgiving Monday

Scott Leave a comment

It will be a very windy Thanksgiving as a strong low pressure system ushers in potentially damaging winds. By the time you’re reading this your loose objects will probably already be in your neighbour’s yard!

Monday

Today will not be the most pleasant Thanksgiving, as rain and strong winds wreck havoc outdoors. A strong low pressure system and corresponding pressure gradient will generate high to extremely high winds over southern Manitoba on Monday. The highest winds are expected Monday morning, when sustained speeds of 60-80km/h, and gusts to 100km/h or more, are expected. The period of extreme gusts likely won’t last more than a few hours, but during that time it will certainly do some damage, not to mention the fact that you’ll have a lot more leaves to rake!

A strong pressure gradient (shown above as tightly packed black lines called isobars) will bring very windy conditions to southern Manitoba on Monday
A strong pressure gradient (shown above as tightly packed black lines called isobars) will bring very windy conditions to southern Manitoba on Monday

Today will also be rather soggy, as moderate rainfall occurs in association with this low pressure system. Today’s rainfall amounts will likely be around 5-15mm in the Red River Valley. You’ll have to wait until at least Tuesday for all those wet leaves to dry out!

Tuesday

Tuesday will be much calmer than Monday. Temperatures will climb into the mid teens under mainly sunny skies. Winds will remain breezy from the west, but they will feel light compared to Monday!

Wednesday

Wednesday will feature much the same weather as Tuesday. Temperatures will be in the low to mid teens under mainly sunny skies. Winds will be breezy from the north-west, but once again it will feel like nothing compared to Monday.

Long Range

Long range models continue to show a strong signal for warmer than normal weather through the end of October. Hopefully this will continue to be the trend as we move into winter due to the effects of El Nino.

Wednesday Rain Lead Transition to Warmer Weather

Brad Leave a comment

A low pressure system moving across Southern Manitoba today will produce some rain this afternoon that may have a slight risk of an isolated thunderstorm in the heavier bands. This system is on the leading edge of a large-scale pattern shift that will transition the region into a warmer, but windier, regime for the end of the week and extending through Thanksgiving weekend.

Today will be a bit of an unpleasant day; moderately strong southeasterly winds will develop through the morning to around 40 km/h (with some gusts on top of that) by this afternoon while temperatures struggle from a chilly sub-zero low to just the low-to-mid teens. The strengthening winds will be courtesy an approaching low pressure system that will push across the Red River Valley later today; this system will be responsible for some widespread shower activity late this morning into the afternoon hours that will push from west to east across southern Manitoba.

RDPS 12hr. Precipitation Totals valid Thursday Night
The RDPS is showing 5-10mm of rain through the RRV with this system, however pockets of 10-15mm appear possible.

Winds will diminish as the low passes by in the evening. Expect mainly cloudy skies overnight with a low near 6 or 7°C.

Seasonal Temperatures Lead to Weekend “Heat Wave”

Thursday and Friday will both be fairly similar days thanks to a ridge of high pressure dominating the region. Winds will be relatively light, skies fairly sunny[1], and temperatures fairly seasonal with daytime highs near 13°C and overnight lows near in the –1 to 4°C range.

The winds will begin to pick up out of the southwest on Friday evening as the ridge of high pressure moves off to the east and a more zonal flow pattern begins to develop for the weekend.

This zonal flow pattern will result in much warmer air pushing eastwards across the Prairies, sending temperatures soaring 5–8°C above normal for this time of year. At this point, it looks like daytime highs will be around 20–22°C this weekend with winds in the 20–30km/h range.

No precipitation is expected on Saturday or Sunday, however a cold front pushing through Sunday afternoon may bring in some breezy winds. For Thanksgiving Monday, pleasant conditions with highs in the mid-to-upper teens are expected. Winds will likely be breezy out of the west to northwest, though, at around 30km/h.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook
The NAEFS continues to forecast above-normal temperatures for Western North America in the 8-14 day range.

Further down the road in the 8–14 day range, the NAEFS continues to forecast above normal temperatures for western North America. There isn’t a whole lot to say about it, so just enjoy the (relatively) pleasant weather outside. If a frosty morning here or there has you down, just remember that it’s October and we’re looking at 20°C+ highs for Thanksgiving weekend!

  1. Except for Thursday morning, where any remnant cloud from today’s system will be clearing out.  ↩