A low pressure system over the American Plains will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to southern Manitoba tonight.

More unsettled weather is on tap for southern Manitoba tonight as a warm front lifts northwards through the Northern Plains. Under increasing or mostly cloudy skies today, the Red River Valley will see temperatures climb to a high near 18°C. Winds will persist out of the northeast near 15-20 km/h.

The main event will begin this evening and persist through the night. As the warm front approaches the province this afternoon, showers will blossom over the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba. As the night progresses, the activity will organize along a southwest-northeast line parallel to the warm front, gradually shifting eastwards. Most areas in the Red River Valley will likely see showers and/or thunderstorms through the night. Given the convective nature of the rain, accumulations may be highly variable, but most¹ areas should see 10-20 mm with the potential for over 40 mm in areas where thunderstorms linger for longer. Some gusty winds are possible in thunderstorms but will otherwise remain in the 10-20 km/h range. Temperatures will dip to a low near 14°C this evening then slowly rise to around 16°C on Thursday morning.

As this system departs on Thursday, it will leave behind abundant cloud cover with winds shifting out of the northwest at 15 to 25 km/h. Winnipeg may see a bit of light rain or drizzle in the morning, but things should dry out for the afternoon. Temperatures will be near-seasonal with a high near 19°C in Winnipeg. There’s a slight chance of some more showers or thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening, but it will likely to remain in southeastern Manitoba and the southern Red River Valley. Skies will remain mostly cloudy on Thursday night with a low near 9°C.

Friday will bring a bit of sunshine as skies become mixed in the afternoon. Temperatures will be a tad warmer with a high near 21°C. Wind will remain light, making for a pleasant afternoon. Temperatures will dip to a low near 9°C on Friday night with mixed skies.

Long Range Outlook

Looking ahead to the weekend, another low pressure system is forecast to develop over the northern Plains. This system will will spread more cloud cover into to the region alongside a couple more chances for showers or thunderstorms.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 19°C while the seasonal overnight low is 6°C.

1. Again, given the variable nature of the precipitation, some areas may see nothing while nearby areas receive heavy rainfall. ↩

Winnipeg will see warm weather and sunny skies on Monday before cloud begins building into the region and unsettled weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Under the influence of a weak ridge of high pressure, Winnipeg will see mainly sunny skies today and a seasonal high near 26°C. A warm front lifting through North Dakota will spread a few clouds into southern Manitoba later this afternoon. The wind will be a bit breezy out of the west near 30 km/h. Later in the day there’s a small risk for an isolated thunderstorm or two, primarily south of the Trans-Canada Highway corridor and through the evening hours. Skies in Winnipeg should remain fairly clear overnight as temperatures dips to a low near 15°C with winds becoming light.

Elevated convection spreading into Manitoba from North Dakota will spread cloud cover into the Red River Valley early Tuesday morning. There will be some shower and thunderstorm activity moving through the province as well, but at this point it looks quite likely that Winnipeg remains dry with the activity remaining to the west and south. After the morning impulse moves through, skies will become mixed and Winnipeg will climb to a high near 26°C again.

By Tuesday afternoon, a warm front is forecast to run from a low pressure centre in southern North Dakota northeastwards across southeastern Manitoba, arcing eastwards into Lake of the Woods. By late afternoon into the evening, there’s a risk of thunderstorms developing along this frontal boundary. With moderate amounts of energy available to the thunderstorms, very good shear, and an organized trigger, there will also be a risk of severe thunderstorms. The primary threat posed by any severe thunderstorms would be large hail and torrential downpours.

The thunderstorm threat should move out of the region later Tuesday evening, then Winnipeg will head to a low near 16°C under mostly cloudy skies.

Wednesday will bring yet more unsettled conditions to the region as a low pressure system moves out of North Dakota into the Interlake before heading eastwards into Ontario. This system will bring the chance of showers or thunderstorms in the morning as it lifts north and then again in the afternoon when the cold front pushes through. There will likely be a slight risk of a severe thunderstorm as well with primary threats of large hail and damaging winds. Winnipeg should see a high near 26°C again.

The cold front will push through in the afternoon, followed by breezy westerly winds near 30 gusting 50 km/h diminishing to 10 to 20 km/h overnight. Skies will clear out with temperatures dropping to a low near 14°C on Wednesday night.

Long Range Outlook

Things look to settle down for the second half of the week into the weekend as an upper-level ridge builds into the region. Heat and humidity will begin to build into the region late in the week, pushing temperatures over the 30°C mark and humidex values close to 40. Forecasts show the seasonably warm weather lasting into next week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

 

 

Winnipeg will continue to see unsettled conditions as a relatively humid airmass builds into the region.

Cloudy skies move into Winnipeg this morning as an upper-level disturbance drifts northwards in the southerly flow that has developed over the region. As it pushes into the Red River Valley, there will be a chance of showers alongside noticeably increasing humidity. The potential for rain will come in two waves: the first will be early this morning, then a second chance will develop this evening. There is a slight chance that there may be some thunderstorms in the second batch, but no significant threat exists for Winnipeg. Temperatures will be cooler than seen lately with a high near 24°C. Winds will be a bit breezy out of the southeast at 20 to 30 km/h.

Skies will become mixed overnight with a low near 18°C and winds continuing out of the south at near 20 km/h.

Tuesday will bring yet another chance for showers or thunderstorms, but not before the city experiences a hot summery day. Partly cloudy skies in the morning will become mixed in the afternoon as daytime heating begins producing more cloud cover. Temperatures will climb to a warm 29 or 30°C, but with the humidity it will feel closer to the mid-30s. Winds will once again be out of the south at 20 to 30 km/h. In the evening, a cold front will sweep through the Red River Valley.

This cold front will bring the threat of severe weather to southwestern Manitoba, but at this point it’s unclear as to exactly how the evolution of any thunderstorms will progress as they move into the valley and the evening. Winnipeg will likely see a good chance of showers or thunderstorms, and there may be a small chance for severe thunderstorm activity continuing along the cold front into the evening.

The cold front will push its way through the Red River Valley overnight as temperatures drop to a low near 16°C. Once the front passes, drier will begin moving into the region and skies will start to clear out.

Wednesday will be a beautiful summer day in Winnipeg: a high near 26°C, comfortable humidity, a bit of a northwesterly breeze, and plenty of sunshine. Skies look clear on Wednesday night as temperatures dip to a low near 16°C.

Long Range Outlook

The unsettled weather isn’t gone for long, though. Another low pressure system moving into the Dakotas will bring warmer and seasonably humid conditions back to Winnipeg on Thursday.

On Thursday night, early forecasts are showing a good potential for thunderstorm activity across much of southern Manitoba with the low-level jet associated with the developing low pressure system supporting an area of nocturnal convection. Friday rounds out the work week with mostly cloudy skies and more chances for showers as another disturbance rolls through the region.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 25°C while the seasonal overnight low is 12°C.