The weather this week will start out mild, with temperatures in the mid to upper single digits. However, cooler conditions are on the way later in the week, so enjoy it while it lasts!
Today will be pleasant, with temperatures in the mid to upper single digits over southern Manitoba. Skies will remain mainly sunny, with generally just some upper-level cloud cover passing through. Winds will be easterly at about 20 km/h.
Pleasant conditions are expected early this week in southern Manitoba
Tuesday will remain mild, with temperatures once again in the mid to upper single digits. A weak disturbance will bring a chance of flurries or showers to southern Manitoba; no significant accumulations are expected, but it will be a drearier day. To our south a much stronger system will be passing through the central US Plains, but it is not expected to significantly affect southern Manitoba. Winds will be northerly at 20-30 km/h.
Wednesday will be slightly cooler than temperatures earlier in the week, with highs in the mid single digits. Skies are expected to turn mainly sunny again though, making for a generally nice day. Winds will be northerly at about 20 km/h.
Long Range
The long range forecast is a bit uncertain at this time, but overall it doesn’t look great. Models suggest that a much colder air mass will surge down from the north late this week, bringing with it below seasonal temperatures. This colder pattern is expected to stay with us as we move into early April.
A mixed bag of weather lies ahead with some cloudy & cool conditions transitioning to milder weather with variable cloudiness and a chance of showers.
Today will be a rather cool day with a below-seasonal high temperature of just -1°C as last night’s snow pushes out of the region while a ridge of high pressure builds in behind, bringing moderate northerly winds of 30 gusting to 50 km/h. Much of the day will be mainly cloudy, but by the afternoon, clearing should begin working into the Red River Valley from the north.
Tonight will bring mainly clear skies and an overnight low near -10°C while the northerly winds gradually taper off overnight.
Saturday will bring plenty of sunshine to the region with just a few clouds and light winds. Temperatures will climb to a near-seasonal daytime high of +1°C. Saturday night will see an overnight low near -5°C with increasing cloud through the second half of the night as a weak disturbance moves towards the region from the northwest.
This 12-hour precipitation accumulation valid mid-day Sunday shows weak showers and flurries moving through Manitoba
A chance for showers will return to the region on Sunday as a weak low pressure system brings mainly cloudy skies to Winnipeg and the Red River Valley. Temperatures will climb to around 5°C for a daytime high with winds out of the south near 20 km/h. Skies will remain fairly cloudy on Sunday night with a low near -4°C.
Long Range
A quick look ahead to next week shows milder weather with daytime highs in the mid-to-upper single digits through the first half of the week, but then an abrupt shift back to below-normal temperatures after a major low pressure system moves through the United States mid-week.
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid April 1 – April 8, 2016
As the NAEFS image shows, for April 1st through April 8th, there’s a near-certainty of seeing below-normal temperatures in Southern Manitoba. At this point, it looks like this will translate to daytime highs near or just below 0°C.
No significant precipitation is expected next week, at least for now. If the track of next week’s major low changes and it shifts further north, well that could be a completely different story!
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -8°C.
A brief reprieve from the cooler temperatures seen of late in Winnipeg is on the way as unsettled weather returns to the region in the second half of the week. Unfortunately, it looks like a return to slightly below-normal temperatures is on the way for the weekend into next week.
Today will be a pleasant day continuing the trend of the past several days. Plenty of sun will be around with just a few clouds throughout the day as temperatures climb to a high near +1°C. Winds will be a little breezy first thing but will diminish by midday as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region. Temperatures will dip to around -6°C tonight for the overnight low.
Thursday will see above-normal temperatures return to the Red River Valley as a low pressure system moves into the region from the northwest and spreads milder Pacific air eastwards into the southern portions of the province. This will bring daytime highs up to around +5°C, several degrees warmer than the -2 to 0°C highs of late.
Thursday will also bring moderate southerlies as we often see with the approach of warmer weather. The wind will be relatively calm in the morning, but increase to around 30-40km/h by the afternoon.
As the low pressure system approaches, cloud cover will thicken from just scattered clouds in the morning to cloudy by mid-afternoon. Rain shower activity will move into the Red River Valley through the afternoon period and persist overnight.
The NAM forecast for Thursday reveals a broad low pressure system that will bring milder air into Manitoba.
The chance for precipitation will continue Thursday night as temperatures drop to a low near -2°C. As temperatures drop below freezing, any rain showers will switch to snow flurries.
Friday will see fairly steady temperatures with a daytime high of 0°C a slight recovery from the overnight low. The chance for flurries will persist into the afternoon under mainly cloudy skies. Gusty northerly winds will pick up on Friday morning to 30-40km/h ushering in cooler temperatures that will drive Friday night’s temperature to around the -10°C mark.
Long Range
The weekend looks relatively quiet with near-seasonal temperatures and variable cloudiness.
The bigger weather story on the horizon is a system that will move through southern Manitoba & the northern plains of the U.S. in the second half of next week.
Details of this system are fairly fuzzy at this point, other than saying it will likely be a potent winter storm with a mix of rain, snow and strong wind. At this point, models keep the precipitation in the United States and bring just strong northerlies to our region, but that forecast can easily change over the coming week. The bigger story will be the pattern change that this system will lead into:
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid March 30 – April 06, 2016
Multiple long-range forecasts are showing a high probability of a brief early-April cool snap with temperatures below seasonal values. With daytime highs in the 0 to -5°C range, it won’t exactly be bone-chillingly cold, but it will be well below the seasonal daytime highs near 5-6°C for that time of year.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -9°C.
The shift back to closer-to-seasonal weather will feel like quite an abrupt change given the marked warmth that’s been in place much of March so far. Fortunately, even with the cooler weather, daytime highs will remain above the freezing mark, and with little snow left and not too much expected to fall, it gets harder and harder for the cold air to stick around[1] as the sun continues to increase in strength.
The low pressure that brought yesterday’s rainfall to the Red River Valley will dominate the weather for two more days before things gradually shift to a more neutral set-up.
Some say what goes up must come down, and while not typically true about the weather, today we’ll see the area of precipitation that pushed northwards into Central Manitoba slump back southwards throughout the day as an inverted trough extending west-northwestward a from the main low pressure system in NW Ontario rotates southwards around the low. This will result in some showers and cooler air pushing into the Red River Valley through the day. As the precipitation moves in from the northeast, the rain will—at some point—switch over to snow. The flurries will continue through the evening and overnight before tapering off on Thursday morning.
12hour preciptation accumulations forecasted for Wednesday afternoon & evening from the RDPS.
Temperatures will climb to around 3-4°C this afternoon and then drop with the cooler air to a low near -3°C tonight. Winds will fairly breezy today out of the northwest at around 30 km/h with gusts up to 50km/h or so. To the southwest of Winnipeg, winds will likely be a bit stronger at 40 gusting 60 km/h. The winds will ease tonight as the axis of the inverted trough moves into the region.
Thursday will be an unexciting day compared to the past week. Any lingering flurries will taper off early in the morning and leave Winnipeg with mainly cloudy skies and temperatures gradually climbing towards a high of 2°C. Winds will be out of the north at 20-30km/h. Skies will remain cloudy tonight as temperatures dip to a low near -3°C with winds slowly easing off.
Friday will once again bring mainly cloudy skies and a high temperature near 3°C. Winds will be light and no precipitation is expected. Skies will remain fairly cloudy on Friday night as the temperature drops to a low near -2°C.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -1°C while the seasonal overnight low is -11°C.
Long Range: Continuing Cloudy, Chance of Flurries
Heading into the weekend, it looks like we’ll likely continue to see a fair amount of cloud as a weak trough remains in the region. While Winnipeg won’t likely see any snow, there is a very slight chance of some flurry activity through the region. Should any snow develop, amounts are expected to be minimal and in most cases likely won’t even accumulate. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly above seasonal.
The weather will turn more active next week as a zonal flow develops aloft and multiple shortwaves ripple across the Prairies. Multiple storm systems are forecast to track through next week, each bringing a mix of wintery precipitation. Temperatures will remain slightly warmer than seasonal through the period.
Snow is so effective at keeping temperatures cool due to its white colour. Snow can reflect much of the sun’s energy, limiting the ability for temperatures to warm up. Once the snow cover is reduced or eliminated, the darker ground absorbs more sun and helps temperatures warm up more quickly. ↩
