Tag: Showers

Mild Weekend Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

The sunny weather is arriving later than expected in Winnipeg no thanks to persistent low cloud that simply wouldn’t leave the region despite clear skies working in on either side of the Red River Valley. With that behind us, though, the warm weather arrives today alongside plenty of sunshine for what will be the start to a beautiful weekend in the Winnipeg area.

A fairly pleasant day is on the way today with the sun finally making an appearance, sending temperatures well above normal and close to record values. The mercury will climb towards the 10°C mark this afternoon, slightly short of the record value of 12.8°C that was at in 2012. The wind will be fairly gusty out of the south this morning and will shift to breezy out of the west behind a warm front that passes through midday.

Skies will be mixed as some remnants of yesterday’s low cloud clear out and are replaced by variable cloud from the warm front moving through the region. We will see sunshine today, particularly once the drier westerly winds kick in and flush out any remaining moisture stuck in the Valley.

The overnight low is expected to dip down to around -1°C tonight under partly cloudy skies and diminishing winds.

Saturday will be the nicest day of the of the weekend with partly cloudy skies, relatively light winds and very mild temperatures. The daytime high on Saturday will climb to around 10-11°C, a potentially record-breaking high for March 12th.

Mild air continues to flow over Southern Manitoba on Saturday night as southerly winds increase ahead of an incoming trough of low pressure. Winds will increase to around 30-40km/h late Saturday. The warmer air moving in alongside the wind will keep overnight lows fairly mild; the temperature will dip only to 2 or 3°C on Saturday night.

GDPS 12hr. QPF forecast valid 06Z March 14, 2016
The GDPS precipitation forecast for Sunday afternoon into the evening.

Sunday will be a mild day but the weather will turn cloudier and potentially wet. A trough of low pressure moving into the province will result in a cloudier day with a high once again near 11°C. Heading into the afternoon, the chance for some rain will increase throughout the Red River Valley and areas east. Significant rainfall is not expected[1], but for the areas that end up seeing any precipitation, a few mm may be possible. The cloud will help temperatures remain very mild on Sunday night with temperatures expected to dip to near 4°C.

New Record Temperatures?

We have the potential of breaking some record temperatures over the next few days, particularly on Saturday and Sunday.

Daily Record High and Record Warm Minimum Temperatures for Winnipeg, MB
Date Record High Record Warm Min
March 11 12.8°C (2012) 2.8°C (1878)
March 12 9.7°C (2012) 2.5°C (2012)
March 13 12.2°C (1902) 1.6°C (1995)

Saturday’s high near 10°C will challenge the 3 year old record from 2012. Saturday night’s low near 2 or 3°C combined with Sunday night’s low near 4°C may challenge the record warmest low temperature for March 13, which currently sits at 1.6°C and was set in 1995.

Sunday’s high temperature is not expected to reach the current record of 12.2°C set in 1902. The low near -1°C on Friday night will prevent the record warm low temperature for March 12th of 2.5°C set in 2012 from being broken.

Long Range: Mild & Unsettled

Heading into next week the forecast is for continued warmth for the first half of the week and then a return towards seasonal values through the second half.

GDPS forecast temperatures for Winnipeg, MB
GDPS forecast temperatures for Winnipeg, MB

Regarding precipitation, most of any potential will be tied up in a mid-week low pressure system that will usher in the cooler temperatures. It appears like it will be a complex mess of multiple low pressure systems merging into a vortex over Northern Ontario, so at this point it would be an exercise in futility to try and make any guesses on what any one place will see from that system. It’s probably safe to say that there will be a chance for rain changing to snow mid-week.

But, before then, enjoy the spring warmth!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -12°C.

  1. Although, as shown above, the GDPS is forecasting convective elements that could produce 10-20mm of rain, I’m not convinced at this point that potential will be realized. I’ll post an update in the comments below if Sunday looks like it may produce some heavier showers.  ↩

Mild Weather Continues

Scott 4 Comments

This week will remain mild with temperatures generally on the positive side of zero. However, there will be a chance for precipitation on Tuesday.

Today will see a continuation of Sunday’s warm weather. High temperatures will be in the mid single digits in the Red River Valley, and perhaps a bit higher over the snow-free area to our west. Skies over the Red River Valley will be a mixture of sun and cloud, while conditions over western Manitoba are mainly cloudy. The only wrinkle in today’s forecast is the potential for fog tonight, aided by the additional moisture generated by the snow melt.

A low pressure will pass to our south on Tuesday, bringing rain and snow to southern Manitoba. At this point it looks like precipitation over south-eastern Manitoba will primarily come in the from of rain. The Red River Valley will probably see a mix of rain and snow, while western Manitoba sees primarily snow. Large amounts of rain/snow are not expected, but models hint at the potential for localized bands of moderate precipitation which could bump up totals in some areas. Most areas will probably see 3-6 mm of accumulation, in the form of rain and/or snow.

RDPS MSLP & 3hr. QPF valid Tuesday morning.
A weak Colorado Low will bring precipitation to the Red River Valley on Tuesday.

Wednesday will be a slightly cooler day as a colder air mass surges southward behind Tuesday’s departing low pressure system. High temperatures will be near the freezing mark with breezy north winds.

Long Range

The long range forecast shows no indication of winter returning. Models strongly suggest that most, if not all, of March will be seasonably warm. Enjoy the snow now, it may not last much longer!

Warm Weather Brings Unsettled Conditions

Brad Leave a comment

Today will mark the start of a prolonged spell of unseasonably warm weather for Southern Manitoba. A strong west-to-southwest flow aloft will begin building into the region today, ushering in much milder Pacific air which will help daytime highs climb above the freezing mark. The milder weather will bring unsettled weather with numerous chances for snow or rain along with the risk for freezing rain over the coming 3-5 days.

Today will bring soaring temperatures as gusty southerly winds develop and raise our temperatures from sub-minus 20 values this morning to around -4 or -3°C by the end of the day. While winds will be light early this morning, they will pick up towards midday to 30-40 km/h out of the south as the warm front towards the Red River Valley. As the warmer air advances eastwards, it will produce scattered flurries that will pass through much of the Red River Valley.

Temperatures will remain steady or drop slightly on Thursday night as more warm air surges northeastwards ahead of an incoming low pressure system. Any remaining flurry activity will taper off overnight, but by Thursday morning the potential for precipitation will return.

RDPS Precipitation Type Forecast for Thursday February 18, 2016
RDPS Precipitation Type Forecast for Thursday February 18, 2016

Thursday will be a mild but messy day. A low pressure system tracking across the Southern Prairies will spread a wintery mix of precipitation through the region with pretty much anything possible. With a high of just +1°C, much of the day will bring the potential for flurries or ice pellets, with the risk of freezing rain. At this point it doesn’t appear that amount will be too significant for the Red River Valley, but with a significant chance for freezing precipitation, we’ll be keeping close tabs on it.

Winds will be moderate throughout Thursday morning out of the southeast to about 30-40km/h. Temperatures will climb to near the 0°C mark and then remain there through the remainder of Thursday and through Thursday night. The chance for any type of precipitation (flurries, freezing rain, rain showers) will likely continue through Thursday night.

Friday will see even warmer air push into the Red River Valley with a daytime high near +2°C expected. There will continue to be a chance for flurries in the morning transitioning to rain showers. Winds will remain light until later in the day when a weak cold front swings through and ushers in winds near 30km/h out of the west-northwest.

Long Range: Mild Weather Continues

Looking forward, it looks like the warmer temperatures will remain in place for a while yet. This weekend will remain warm with daytime highs near 0°C on Saturday and -5°C on Sunday, with chances for snow on both days.

CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook
CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook

Further on into next week, temperatures are forecast to continue above seasonal for this time of year as shown above in the CPC’s 6-10 day temperature outlook.

The normal daytime high for Winnipeg is currently -8°C and the normal overnight low is -18°C.

Turning Cloudy Again

Scott Leave a comment

We’ll have one more sunny day before conditions turn cloudy again. A low pressure system moving up from the United States will bring another round of dreary, wet weather.

Today will be quite nice in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be near 10C under mainly sunny skies and light winds. The normal high for this time of year is only 1C, so conditions today are well above seasonal. Enjoy it, this may be one of the last nice days of the year!

A low pressure system moving up from the United States will bring warm weather on Monday, but cloudy weather for Tuesday and Wednesday
A low pressure system moving up from the United States will bring warm weather on Monday, but cloudy weather for Tuesday and Wednesday

Tuesday will see the return of dreary, wet weather. A low pressure system moving up from the US will spread showery weather over southern Manitoba. Accumulations will be very light, but the cloudy, wet conditions won’t make for a very nice day. Winds will be from the north at 20km/h.

Wednesday will see a continuation of Tuesday’s grey weather. However, instead of just rain, we may see some snow mixed in as well. No accumulations are expected, but the white stuff is never a welcome sight at this time of year. Winds will be north-westerly at 20-30km/h with temperatures in the low single digits.

Long Range

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast issued 12Z November 8, 2015
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast issued 12Z November 8, 2015

Long range models, such as the NAEFS pictured above, continue to strongly suggest that above-seasonal weather will last for most of November. Given the strength of El Nino this winter, expect to continue hearing a lot more about warmer than normal weather in the long range!