Tag: Showers

Fire crews were kept busy with a grass fire near the west perimeter Monday evening.

Dry & Mild Weather Continues

Brad 1 Comment

Dry weather is increasingly becoming the predominant weather story for our region as an extended period of little-to-no precipitation develops. Through March, the Winnipeg airport reported only 13.8mm of precipitation, barely over half of the normal of 24.5mm[1]. So far, half-way through April, we’ve seen just 2.0mm of precipitation, well off the pace of the normal of 30.0mm. This is all in addition to coming off the 9th driest meteorological winter on record. The dry weather has led to a fatality due to a brush fire in the RM of Rhineland, a fire that temporarily closed rail lines in Winnipeg near the Perimeter Highway and Wilkes Ave.[2] and the cancellation of Manitoba burning permits.

The problems are even worse south of the border, though, with some areas in North Dakota seeing record dryness. On Monday, the NWS Grand Forks office tweeted a new record for Grand Forks:

They followed it up by also mentioning that Fargo has seen it’s 3rd driest October-April stretch. The dry weather has created an excessive fire hazard in the region and has resulted in numerous “Red Flag” warnings.[3]

Unfortunately, little relief is in sight. The warm, windy weather will continue over the coming days with no significant precipitation.

Today will be another very warm day; our forecast high of 22°C is over 10°C above normal for this time of year. The warmth will come along side very strong southerly winds, though, with sustained winds strengthening to 50–60km/h and gusts possibly as high as 90km/h. Environment Canada issued a wind warning at 11:51PM last night anticipating the strong winds. Winds will remain strong into the evening before diminishing overnight. There will be some cloud moving in overnight associated with a cold front moving through as the temperature drops to around 6°C. There’s a very slight chance of a few sprinkles overnight into early Thursday morning, but at this point it looks like any amounts, if they were to occur, would be insignificant.

Thursday will be a relatively quiet day. Temperatures will remain mild with highs near 16°C, but the more notable aspect of the day will be the calm winds thanks to a ridge of high pressure over the region. Expect cloud to move in on Thursday evening as we drop to a low near 6°C again.

GPDS 12hr. QPF valid 00Z April 18th, 2015
The GDPS shows Winnipeg on the edge of an area of accumulating showers on Friday.

Friday’s main weather story will be a low pressure system slumping through Southern Manitoba. It will bring an area of showers with it, however at this point general model consensus is that Winnipeg will likely see a few sprinkles, but the accumulating rainfall of a few mm will remain further north in the Interlake. As the system passes, a cold front will sweep through the Red River Valley and usher in strong northwest winds to around 40 gusting 60km/h. The temperature will climb to near 14°C under more cloud than sun. Skies will clear and winds diminish heading into the evening as the temperature heads to a low of about 3 or 4°C.

Long Range

In general, the weather continues to look warm and fairly dry. No significant precipitation is expected in the next 10 days across the Southern Prairies and Northern Plains. Any chances for rain in the 4–10 day period look pretty uncertain at best as different models are tracking fairly divergent solutions. The warm weather looks to stick around until next week before some cooler weather may begin moving in.

  1. Based on the 1981 – 2010 climate normals.  ↩
  2. Pictured above; credit to Christopher Stanton / Global News.  ↩
  3. Red flag warnings are issued when weather conditions combine with dry hydrological conditions to present an extreme fire hazard.  ↩

Mild Weather Returns to Winnipeg

Brad Leave a comment

A return to spring weather has arrived for Southern Manitoba with temperatures returning to seasonal to above-seasonal values for the remainder of the week. Plenty of clouds will be in place today, but sunnier skies will move in for Thursday and Friday, making for a great end to the work week.

Wednesday
8°C / -3°C
Mainly cloudy

Thursday
10°C / -2°C
A few clouds; chance of showers

Friday
10°C / -2°C
Mainly sunny

Today will be a fairly cloudy day thanks to a low pressure system moving through the Northern Plains of the United States. While the precipitation associated with the system will remain south of the border, a fair amount of cloud will push into our region making for a bit of a dreary day. Fortunately, temperatures will return to seasonal values with a high today near 8°C. Clouds will clear out overnight with the temperature dropping to around –3°C.

GPDS 6hr. QPF – Valid 00Z Friday April 10, 2015
A weak disturbance slumping southwards into the Red River Valley will bring a slight chance of showers to Winnipeg on Thursday.

Thursday and Friday will both be mainly sunny days with highs near 10°C and lows near –2°C. Little in the way of weather is expected on Friday, however tomorrow a weak disturbance slumping southeastwards will push into the Red River Valley and bring just a slight chance of showers late in the day to Winnipeg.

A Look At The Weekend

This weekend looks quite nice for Southern Manitoba with daytime highs in the teens and plenty of sunshine. Winds look fairly calm through the weekend, although they may end up breezy out of the south sometime Sunday for a few hours as a tough line approaches. As the trough moves through, we may see some shower activity on Sunday afternoon.

All in all a fairly nice weekend with a welcome return to warmer temperatures.

Wednesday? Beautiful, No Foolin’! Thursday? Not So Much…

Brad Leave a comment

Some of the warmest weather so far this year will move into the region today, drawn eastwards by a fairly strong spring storm moving through the Central Prairies. The warmth is not meant to last, though, as a strong cold front pushes through and brings below-normal temperatures for the remainder of the week.

Wednesday
16°C / 2°C
Windy with sunny breaks this afternoon

Thursday
⇓ -2°C / -12°C
Cloudy & windy; chance of showers or flurries

Friday
0°C / -8°C
Mainly sunny & cool

Today will be quite a warm day thanks to very mild air over our region; 925mb temperatures are expected to climb to around 9°C, which should translate to daytime highs near 15 or 16°C once we sunshine this afternoon. Speaking of sunshine, while today is starting off cloudy, we should the cloud cover break up this afternoon as the dry slot associated with the Central Prairie low moves across Southern Manitoba. Alongside the sunshine and clearing will be fairly gusty westerly winds to 30–40km/h with gusts as high as 60km/h. The winds will taper off in the evening as we head to an overnight low of around +2°C.

RPDS 3hr. QPF & MSLP valid Thursday, April 2, 2015
The RPDS shows an area of light precipitation moving through the Red River Valley on Thursday with a relatively tight pressure gradient that will produce gusty northerly winds.

Thursday will be a significantly less pleasant day as a cold front pushes through Southern Manitoba, bringing with it cooler temperatures, gusty northerly winds and a fairly good chance for some shower or flurry activity. Temperatures in Winnipeg will slide through the morning, settling near –1 or –2°C for much of the afternoon as gusty northerly winds to around 40km/h tap cooler air from the north. The best chance for any shower or flurry activity would be through the morning & early afternoon. Skies will clear out Thursday evening as we head to a low near –12°C.

Friday will be a benign weather day for Winnipeg & the Red River Valley, but temperatures will be well below normal. Daytime highs will only be around +1 or +2°C through the Red River Valley, which is a few degrees below normal for this time of year. Fortunately, winds will be light and with that increasingly strong April sun shining, it won’t feel so bad. Expect temperatures to drop to around –8°C on Friday night with partly cloudy skies.

Quiet Weekend Ahead

The weekend is looking fairly quiet for Winnipeg with seasonal to slightly below-seasonal temperatures and a few clouds. A ridge of high pressure building in from the Arctic looks to keep most disturbances to the south of Winnipeg, however with the main frontal zone setting up near the U.S. border and a few shortwaves rippling along, areas along the U.S. border in Southern Manitoba may see a few showers or flurries through the weekend. Nothing significant is expected.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook (issued 12Z March 31, 2015)
The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature anomaly forecast show above-seasonal warmth returning to Manitoba.

In the longer range, it looks fairly likely that we’ll see a return to above normal temperatures through the second week of April as the storm track shifts back further north; while above normal temperatures will return, it looks like much of the warm weather will be associated with weather disturbances, making it likely that we’ll see more of a “roller coaster” temperature pattern than a prolonged period of warm, dry weather. Only time will tell, though! For now, expect a few cool days and then a stretch of near-seasonal temperatures.

Warm & Unsettled

Scott Leave a comment

This week will start out warm, but a bit unsettled thanks to a series of low pressure systems that will pass through the region, bringing variable weather conditions.

The first of a series of low pressure systems will pass through Manitoba on Monday
The first of a series of low pressure systems will pass through Manitoba on Monday

Monday

Monday
13°C / 0°C
Mix of sun and cloud with chance of showers

Today will be a mixture of sun and cloud as a low pressure system passes through the region. This low may generate some shower activity in southern Manitoba, but accumulations will be small. A cold front will pass through in the afternoon, causing winds to pick up from the north-west. Temperatures should climb into the low teens in most areas making for a warm but slightly unsettled day.

Tuesday

Tuesday
14°C / 5°C
Mainly sunny

Tuesday will be a nice day in southern Manitoba. There will be some cloud cover, but there should be more sun than cloud. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid teens with increasingly strong south winds. Overall, a pleasant spring day!

Wednesday

Wednesday
13°C / -2°C
Mainly cloudy with showers

Wednesday will see the return of unsettled conditions as another low pressure system approaches the region. This system will be quite powerful, but luckily most of the heavy precipitation (and that in solid form) will remain to our north. We will nonetheless see some shower activity and mainly cloudy skies. Winds will shift from southerly in the morning to westerly in the afternoon.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to look quite variable. After Wednesday’s system exits the region we’ll see markedly cooler weather as cold air floods down from the north. Following this cool-down it appears that temperatures will hover around seasonal values, give or take a few degrees.