Tag: Showers

Warm Weather Continues

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Above-normal temperatures[1] will continue through the remainder of the week as a southwesterly flow aloft continues to pump relatively mild Pacific air over the Prairies.

Wednesday
17°C / 8°C
Increasing cloud with a chance of showers

Thursday
15°C / 7°C
Mainly cloudy

Friday
16°C / 5°C
Some morning cloud, then sunny

Unsettled Wednesday

Today will be the most unsettled day of the week thanks to a (very) weak cold front pushing eastwards across the Red River Valley today. A fairly sunny start to the day will become more mixed by mid-day with a slight chance of shower activity in Winnipeg mid-day into the early afternoon. It seems most likely that the activity will remain to the east of Winnipeg, with showers or even thunderstorms almost a certainty in the Whiteshell southwards to the US border.

Precipitation forecast for this afternoon from the Canadian RDPS model.
Precipitation forecast for this afternoon from the Canadian RDPS model.

The American NAM weather model has been an outlier for several runs in a row, producing a fairly potent band of showers and thunderstorms over the western Red River Valley and pushing eastwards through the day. Given the weak surface forcing, mediocre moisture and the rate and evolution of the upper-level destabilization, it seems that the NAM is probably over-doing things and not a likely forecast. It’s worth mentioning here as an outside possibility, though, given its consistency in producing that outcome.

Other than the showers, strong southerly winds at 40 gusting 60km/h will taper off this afternoon behind the weak cold front as they shift to westerly at around 20km/h. The temperature will climb to around 17°C today.

Skies will clear out this evening as the temperature drops near 8°C for the overnight low.

Pleasant End to the Week

Thursday and Friday will both be pleasant fall days – especially for late October. Dry weather will be the name of the game for both days with highs in the mid-teens and fairly light winds. Some cloud will push across the Red River Valley on Thursday night but otherwise things will be mainly sunny/clear. The temperature will dip to around 6 or 7°C on Thursday night and a bit cooler – near 5°C – on Friday night.

Heading into the weekend, the weather continues to look pleasant with highs in the teens, no real threat of rain and plenty of sunshine. Enjoy!

  1. Normal daytime highs for this time of year sit around the 8°C mark.  ↩

Near-Seasonal Temperatures Return for the Weekend

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Cooler temperatures have moved into Southern Manitoba behind a low pressure system that brought a few showers and strong northerly winds as it moved across the Red River Valley yesterday evening. Today will be a cool, dreary return to chilly fall weather, but a gradual moderation of temperatures is in store for the remainder of the weekend.

Friday
7°C / 0°C
Cloudy; chance of drizzle or showers

Saturday
10°C / 6°C
Mainly cloudy

Sunday
14°C / 3°C
Mainly sunny

A less-than-pleasant day is in store for Winnipeg today as breezy northerly winds around 30km/h continue to push a cool air mass southwards into the Red River Valley, leaving us with a dreary day with a high barely above where it starts the day off at. The temperature will struggle to climb to 7 or 8°C today under cloudy skies alongside a slight chance of drizzle or shower activity. Skies will remain mainly cloudy tonight with a chance of a few clear breaks late overnight; the temperature will drop to between 0–2°C for the overnight low.

This animation of 850mb temperatures (running from Friday evening to Saturday evening) shows warmer air pushing eastwards into Manitoba.
This animation of 850mb temperatures (running from Friday evening to Saturday evening) shows warmer air pushing eastwards into Manitoba.

There isn’t too much to say about the weekend other than conditions will gradually improve. Saturday looks fairly cloudy with a high near 10°C and light winds. A partly cloudy night will see the temperature dropping to 6°C or so. Sunday will be quite a pleasant day with temperatures climbing back above normal under mainly sunny skies. Expect a high near 14–15°C and an overnight low on Sunday night near 3°C. At this point, it does look like a low pressure system will move through the Interlake on Sunday, bringing some showers along with it. Current indications are that all of that activity will remain to the north and east of Winnipeg, but we’ll keep an eye on it as the system develops.

Heading into next week looks very nice with temperatures returning to the upper teens as another upper-level ridge builds into the Prairies, spreading mild Pacific air eastwards once again.

Beautiful Summer Weather Continues

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The beautiful weather we’ve been enjoying over the Thanksgiving weekend is set to continue for a couple more days before slightly cooler weather moves in for the weekend. Fortunately, the dip in temperatures looks to be short-lived before warmer air once moves back into the region.

Wednesday
19°C / 9°C
Warm & windy; mostly cloudy

Thursday
17°C / 5°C
Becoming cloudy with showers in the afternoon

Friday
9°C / -1°C
Mainly cloudy & windy, clearing in the evening

Wednesday

Today will be marked with significant warmth hampered somewhat by the breezy southerly winds that will develop. An approaching low pressure system, responsible for spreading the above-average temperatures in Manitoba, will produce a strong pressure gradient over the Red River Valley today which will result in southerly winds increasing to around 40km/h by late this morning with gusts approaching 55–60km/h. These stronger winds will persist well into the evening before tapering off overnight.

Otherwise, it will be a fairly nice day. Temperatures will climb to around 19°C, with a very slight chance of eking out a 20°C for the day, and skies will be fairly mixed, probably trending towards the cloudier side of things. Skies will clear out a bit overnight as we head to a low of 9°C or so.

Thursday

Thursday will be perhaps an even nicer day than today will be. Skies will be a bit sunnier and temperatures nearly as warm – around 18°C for a high – but without today’s wind.

The NAM is generating quite a bit of shower activity across Southern Manitoba – shown here by this simulated RADAR image – on Thursday evening.
The NAM is generating quite a bit of shower activity across Southern Manitoba – shown here by this simulated RADAR image – on Thursday evening.

A low pressure system and associated cold front are poised to move through in the evening, however, which will bring with them some shower activity as the system swings across the Red River Valley. Northwesterly winds behind the cold front will begin tapping cooler air as we head to a low of 3°C overnight with showers possibly persisting through the overnight period.

If slightly heavier activity is maintained overnight, there’s a slight chance that the showers may change to mixed precipitation or flurries for a few hours, but no accumulation of snow would be expected. We’ll keep an eye on this system and provide updates in the comments below if necessary.

Friday

Friday will be a relatively unpleasant day, although in reality quite close to the normal conditions for this time of year. Gusty northwesterly winds to 30km/h and mainly cloudy skies will be the name of the game as our high sits 10°C cooler than Wednesday or Thursday at around 9°C. Little in the way of precipitation is expected.

Winds should taper off Friday evening alongside clearing skies as we head to an overnight low just below freezing.

The Weekend

Conditions will gradually improve through the weekend. Highs both days will climb somewhere in the 10–12°C range with relatively light winds. Sunday appears to be the more interesting of the two days as some showers push into Western Manitoba. It’s unlikely that any rain will make it into the Red River Valley, but we’ll certainly see some cloud from the system as it moves through.

The NAEFS is forecasting above normal temperatures next week.
The NAEFS is forecasting above normal temperatures next week.

The passage of Sunday’s system will mark the return of warmer air to our region and, at this point, it looks like we’ll be returning to above-normal temperatures for next week. Medium-range forecast models, such as the NAEFS, all show a strong signal of above-normal temperatures returning for the last week and a half of October.

Cool Weather Continues

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A large upper-level low pressure system over northern Ontario will bring us chilly weather to start the week. Unfortunately, this means below-normal temperatures and frequent opportunities for showers.

An upper low over Ontario will bring cool conditions to southern Manitoba this week
An upper low over Ontario will bring cool conditions to southern Manitoba this week

Monday

Monday
7°C / 2°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of showers

Today will be cool, cloudy, and breezy as that large upper-level low over Ontario brings a cool north-westerly flow to southern Manitoba. There will be a chance of showers throughout the day, as a band of light precipitation pushes down from the north.

Tuesday

Tuesday
7°C / -1°C
Mainly cloudy

Tuesday’s weather will be very similar to today’s. Skies will once again be mainly cloudy with a chance of showers. Unfortunately, it will also remain breezy as that upper low to our east maintains a decent pressure gradient across Manitoba.

Wednesday

Wednesday
8°C / -3°C
Mix of sun and cloud

It looks like Wednesday’s weather may begin to see some improvement over the conditions from earlier in the week. Temperature won’t warm by much, but winds should be a bit lighter. The chance for showers looks to be gone on Wednesday, and we should even see some sunshine.

Long Range

The long range forecast isn’t looking all that great at this point. The current forecast calls for a surface high to build into Manitoba late this week as that nasty upper low finally moves off. This will likely mean sunnier skies, but also a good chance for some solid freezing nights, and relatively cool daytime temperatures. Models hint at a warming trend from next weekend into the following week, though it isn’t currently expected to be an extended warm-spell…but we shall see what actually happens!