Tag: Showers

The Cold Front is Coming!

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The cold front is coming! The cold front is coming! After a pleasant weekend, things will turn sharply cooler this week as a potent cold front plows through southern Manitoba today.

A cold front will bring sharply cooler weather to southern Manitoba on Monday
A cold front will bring sharply cooler weather to southern Manitoba on Monday

Monday

Monday
22°C / 7°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of showers

Today will see a strong cold front sweep through southern Manitoba. The front will move through western Manitoba early in the morning, exiting the province by late afternoon or early evening. There may be a few showers along this cold front, but no significant precipitation is expected. However, temperatures will drop significantly behind the front, and winds will increase as well, marking an end to summery weather, at least for now.

Tuesday

Tuesday
10°C / 4°C
Mainly cloudy with showers

Tuesday will be a nasty day. High temperatures will struggle to reach double-digits and there will be a breezy north wind. To add insult to injury, we may also see some showers throughout the day, just adding to that nasty fall feel. This will be our first taste of fall weather since, well, last fall!

Wednesday

Wednesday
12°C / 2°C
Mix of sun and cloud

Wednesday will be another cool day in southern Manitoba. High temperatures in the low double digits are expected, with a breezy north wind once again.

Long Range

After reading about the gloomy weather above, you’re probably hoping this isn’t it for summer…well, all hope is not lost, at least not yet! Long range models suggest that we may return to a more summery pattern at some point in the second half of September. Let’s hope the long range forecast is correct!

Pleasant Weekend Before Big Cool Down

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After a dreary evening last night, conditions will gradually improve to quite a pleasant weekend for Winnipeg & the Red River Valley.

The RDPS model is forecasting a line of showers & thunderstorms through the Red River Valley by 5-7PM this evening.
The RDPS model is forecasting a line of showers & thunderstorms through the Red River Valley by 5–7PM this evening.

Today will start off with a bit of cloud through the Red River Valley thanks to the Manitoba lakes. We won’t see completely sunny skies, though, as a combination of increasing instability and some cloud moving in ahead of a trough moving across the province produce mixed skies through much of the day.

Friday
18°C / 5°C
Increasing cloud; a chance of showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon.

This afternoon into early this evening will bring a slight chance for showers or thunderstorms across the Red River Valley as that trough line works its way through the region. At this point it doesn’t look like severe weather is likely. Once the trough swings through, northerly winds at around 30km/h will move into the region and general clearing will take place.

Cooler air aloft will once again slump over Southern Manitoba tonight, bringing with it a chance for lake-effect cloud and drizzle once again. Winds, in general, don’t look particularly favourable which will likely limit or exclude their development. Winds will taper off overnight and low temperatures will be near 4 or 5°C.

Improving for the Weekend

Saturday
21°C / 8°C
Cloudy periods

Sunday
23°C / 12°C
A few clouds

Warmer weather will move in for the weekend as multiple low pressure systems draw warmer air eastwards across the Prairies as they move across Central Manitoba. Precipitation is expected to remain through Central & Northern Manitoba, leaving us dry with seasonal highs in the low 20’s. Overnight lows look to dip to around the 10°C mark, give or take a couple degrees.

Big Cool Down Next Week

Unfortunately, the pleasant weather will not be sticking around. Colder air builds into the Northern Prairies behind the systems tracking through during the weekend, which will then be driven southwards early in the week as an Alberta-clipper type system races across the Prairies.

The CPC 6-10 day temperature & precipitation anomaly outlook calls for below normal temperatures and near- to slightly above-normal precipitation.
The CPC 6–10 day temperature & precipitation anomaly outlook calls for below normal temperatures and near- to slightly above-normal precipitation.

850mb temperatures are forecast to drop into the 0°C to –5°C range by mid-week, resulting in daytime highs dropping towards the low teens and overnight lows likely dipping towards the 0°C mark. By mid-week, frost will be a definite concern across Western Manitoba and into the Red River Valley. The big question here in Winnipeg & the RRV will be exactly how much cloud the lakes produce when the cold air slides over them.

At this point it looks like a brief moderate at the end of the week before another cold blast potentially moves through.

Plesant End to the Long Weekend

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This week will start off with pleasant conditions, as we experience a nice end to the long weekend.

Labour Day will be pleasant in southern Manitoba
Labour Day will be pleasant in southern Manitoba

Monday

Monday
23°C / 8°C
Mix of sun and cloud with a chance of showers or thunderstorms

Today will be a pleasant day in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be in the low to mid twenties with a light westerly wind and partly sunny skies. There will be a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms, but any rain should be isolated and short-lived. Overall, it will be a good end to the last long weekend of summer.

Tuesday

Tuesday
24°C / 10°C
Mix of sun and cloud with a chance of showers or thunderstorms

Tuesday will be another nice day in southern Manitoba. Skies will be a mixture of sun and cloud, with temperatures in the mid twenties. There will once again be a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms, but they’ll again be isolated.

Wednesday

Wednesday
24°C / 13°C
Mix of sun and cloud

Wednesday will once again feature seasonably warm conditions in southern Manitoba. High temperatures will be in the low to mid twenties with light winds.

Long Range

The long range forecast is a bit uncertain at this time. It looks like we’ll generally see near seasonal conditions in the short to medium term, which means temperatures in the lowish twenties. There will however be some days warmer, and some cooler, than seasonal values.

Seasonal Long Weekend Ahead

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Seasonal weather will be in place over southern Manitoba as the last long weekend of the summer arrives. Conditions will be fairly dry except for a disturbance rolling through on Saturday night.

Friday
22°C / 8°C
Chance of morning showers, then clearing

Saturday
23°C / 14°C
Mainly sunny; showers or thunderstorms likely overnight

Sunday
23°C / 10°C
Morning showers or thunderstorms then clearing

All in all it’s going to be a lovely weekend with most of the chances for precipitation outside of “plan-ruining” hours. Today we’ll see a chance for some morning showers – or perhaps even an isolated thunderstorm – as a cold front passes through the Red River Valley. Winds will shift to the north behind the front and temperatures will climb to around 22°C under increasingly sunny skies for the afternoon.

Tonight will be clear with a low of around 8°C.

Saturday will be a very pleasant day with mainly sunny skies and a high near 23°C. Winds will shift to southerly through the day, but remain relatively light at 20–30km/h. Some cloud will begin streaming into the Red River Valley ahead of an approaching low pressure system that will move through on Saturday night.

Storm-total precipitation amounts forecast by the GDPS for Saturday nights storm.
Storm-total precipitation amounts forecast by the GDPS for Saturday night’s storm.

This system will be compact and intense with strong dynamics associated with it. Showers and thunderstorms will spread into the Red River Valley overnight on Saturday – likely not until late overnight. It’s unclear if much of a severe threat exists with these storms, although it does look like they could be fairly strong. Rainfall amounts will be dependent on the timing and intensity of convective activity, but in general it looks like 10–20mm of rain is likely, with isolated amounts approaching 50mm possible in worst-case scenarios.

The activity will continue into Sunday morning and clear out by mid-day. The rest of Sunday will be quite nice with clearing skies and temperatures climbing to around 22°C. Sunday night will be mainly clear with temperatures dipping near the 10°C mark.

A Beautiful Holiday Monday

For the upcoming holiday Monday, it looks like another pleasant, seasonal day with highs near 21 or 22°C and mainly sunny skies. The pattern looks to hold for much of the remainder of the week, where conditions look dry and the possibility of some warmer weather returns near week’s end.

Have a great weekend!