Tag: Showers

Unsettled Friday Leads Into Beautiful Weekend

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Winnipeg will see a chance for some thunderstorm activity this afternoon with the passage of a weak cold front late today, but today’s unsettled weather will lead into a beautiful August weekend.

Friday
30°C / 17°C
Afternoon cloud; late-day thunderstorm likely

Saturday
27°C / 12°C
Partly cloudy

Sunday
28°C / 18°C
Partly cloudy; risk of showers or thunderstorms late in the day

Thunderstorms Possible in Muggy Airmass

Today will be a hot and muggy day. Temperatures will climb to the 30°C mark by the afternoon with dewpoint values topping out around 20°C, making it feel like the upper 30’s. Winds will be light out of the south.

Things will change as a cold front slumping southwards through the Interlake pushes into the Red River Valley late in the day. Scattered thunderstorms are likely along the front late in the day into the evening; in general the storms will be non-severe, however an isolated severe storm with strong winds or large hail may be possible.

A pleasant night will follow the passage of the cold front; the temperature will drop to around 14°C with clear skies.

Beautiful Weekend Ahead

Saturday and Sunday will be beautiful days for late August with dry weather and warm temperatures in store. Things might take a turn towards the unsettled late in the day on Sunday, although there’s some disagreement on the timing of when the next significant system impacts Winnipeg.

Saturday will be partly cloudy with light northeasterly winds as a ridge of high pressure moves across southern Manitoba. Temperatures will top out around 27°C and drop into the low teens – around 12°C – on Saturday night. Humidity levels will be more comfortable as drier air moves into the province behind Friday’s cold front.

Sunday will be another partly cloudy day with a high near 28°C. More cloud will likely work its way into Winnipeg later in the day ahead of the next low pressure system trundling our way.

There’s fair disagreement on the timing of this next system; the US models bring it through the Red River Valley on Sunday evening, while Canadian models move the system slower and don’t bring it into our region until Monday afternoon. Either way, there’s fairly good agreement that this system will bring a broad area of showers and thunderstorms with it. Depending on the timing and evolution of the system, we may end up with the potential for some severe thunderstorm activity.

Sunday’s weather will be something we’ll keep monitoring and provide an update later in the weekend looking at how this upcoming system is evolving.

More Hot Weather

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The hot weather that’s been situated over Southern Manitoba for much of the last few weeks will continue through the remainder of the week as a broad upper-level ridge builds into the region. The weather will become more unsettled towards the end of the week, though, as the upper ridge begins to “flatten out” and multiple disturbances trundle across our region.

500mb flow forecast by the NAM shows a prominent upper-level ridge over the Prairies.
500mb flow forecast by the NAM shows a prominent upper-level ridge over the Prairies.

Beautiful Wednesday on Tap

Today will be a gorgeous with mainly sunny skies and warm temperatures as the high climbs to around 26°C this afternoon. Winds will be light thanks to a ridge of high pressure at the surface that will be pushing off into northwestern Ontario by the end of the day.

Wednesday
26°C / 15°C
Mainly sunny

Tonight will see a chance for some showers or thunderstorms as a low pressure system pushes across southern Saskatchewan and into southern Manitoba through the overnight period.

As the night progresses, a warm front will slowly push eastwards towards the Red River Valley, bringing warmer air aloft and the slight chance for some showers or thunderstorms sometime in the second half of the overnight period. The risk really is quite minimal; in general there may be a little too much warm air aloft which would inhibit the development of any shower or thunderstorm activity.

Thirty on Thursday

Thursday will be an absolute scorcher as Winnipeg moves into the warm sector of the low pressure system moving through. Daytime highs will climb into the low 30’s through the Red River Valley with, mercifully, dewpoints around 16°C making for not-too-humid conditions.

Thursday
31°C
Sunny and hot
Thursday Night
19°C
Partly cloudy; risk of a thunderstorm

Thursday night will bring a slight chance for some thunderstorm activity. As things begin cooling off in the evening, moisture advecting into the region may end up destabilizing the lower levels of the atmosphere. If any storms develop, there would be a low risk for any severe weather, although there may be a risk for marginally severe hail should all of the instability be realized.

Unsettled Friday

Summer will continue in full swing on Friday as daytime highs approach the 30°C mark again but will likely remain just shy of it at around 28 or 29°C. The humidity will be more noticeable as dewpoints climb into the high teens or perhaps even break the 20°C mark, making it feel closer to the mid–30’s than the high 20’s.

Friday
29°C / 15°C
Mixed skies and warm; risk of a thunderstorm

Skies will be mixed with the potential for more shower or thunderstorm activity as the low pressure system pushing into the province brings some instability with it. Any shower or thunderstorm activity that develops will likely be somewhat scattered in nature, however isolated strong storms will be possible.

Temperatures will dip down to the mid-teens on Friday night under partly cloudy skies.

Warm Weekend Ahead

The warm weather will continue right through the weekend with highs in the upper 20’s both Saturday and Sunday and comfortable humdity.

Saturday looks quite nice with mainly sunny skies, lower humidity and light winds making for a stellar late-summer day. Nothing to complain about there.

Sunday will be warm, although it will be cloudier than Saturday was. Some showers or thunderstorms look to be possible late in the day through overnight as another low pressure system swings through the province.

Unsettled Weather Continues

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More unsettled weather is on the way as another generally unstable day gives way to the passage of a low pressure system and associated cold front that will finally result in a shift in the larger-scale weather pattern.

Friday
30°C / 18°C
Partly cloudy

Saturday
28°C / 16°C
Mainly sunny; evening thunderstorms likely

Sunday
25°C / 12°C
Mainly sunny

Generally unsettled weather will be in place over Southern Manitoba today as an unstable air mass continues to preside over the region. Shower activity will likely continue to remain elusive here in Winnipeg, but elsewhere, particularly northwards into the Interlake may see a few showers or thundershowers today. It will be hot with high temperatures near 30° combining with dewpoint values near 20°C making it feel more like the upper 30’s. Temperatures will dip just below the 20°C mark overnight under mainly clear skies.

Saturday will be another hot and humid day with plenty of sunshine. Increasing cloud in the afternoon ahead of an advancing cold front will restrain the daytime high to a couple degrees cooler than today. Winds will be the strongest they’ve been in a while, strengthening to 30-40km/h out of the south by late in the afternoon.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will develop along a cold front stretching from the northern Interlake into southwestern Manitoba late in the day and gradually push eastwards through the evening. It’s very likely that most places in the Red River Valley, Winnipeg included, will see some shower or thunderstorm activity as the front passes through. Rainfall amounts will be quite variable; it looks like 5 to 15mm will be fairly common, however higher amounts will be possible in thunderstorms. Skies will clear behind the cold front with temperatures dropping to the mid-teens.

Sunday will be a beautiful, albeit cooler, day. Southern Manitoba will see just a few clouds and a high near 24 or 25°C. Much of the humidity will be flushed out by the cold front, so it should also be a much more comfortable feeling day as well. There may be a slight chance of some isolated shower activity on Sunday night as a weak disturbance ripples southeastwards across the province. Temperatures will drop into the low teens on Sunday night.

Warm Weather Continues

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The warm, dry weather that has dominated over the past week will continue through the remainder of this week as an area of high pressure continues to stake its claim over the Red River Valley.

Wednesday
27°C / 17°C
Mostly cloudy

Thursday
28°C / 17°C
Mixed skies with slight chance of isolated showers

Friday
27°C / 15°C
Mainly sunny

Wednesday

Today will bring a fair amount of cloud, but it appears that any precipitation will likely remain west of the Red River Valley in Southwestern Manitoba northwards into the Parkland region. There will likely be a small chance of some isolated showers through the Red River Valley, but the odds look slim and even if there were, the total rainfall amounts would be minimal.

While the dry weather is generally appreciated given the wet spring and start to summer, some rainfall would be welcome in the Red River Valley. Winnipeg’s July ended as the 14th driest on record while, in general, the southwestern Red River Valley has now fallen to between 75–90% the normal accumulated precipitation for the growing season. For crops that are near harvest, the dry weather has been welcome, but some crops will be beginning to undergo some stress due to the lack of rainfall. Unfortunately, no significant rains are in the forecast in the coming week.

Percentages of the normal seasonal accumulated precipitation show below-normal rainfall developing in the southwestern Red River Valley.
Percentages of the normal seasonal accumulated precipitation show below-normal rainfall developing in the southwestern Red River Valley.

Cloud and precipitation aside, today will be pleasant. Daytime highs will sit in the upper 20s with light winds. There’s significant disagreement as to what will happen overnight, though, as some models produce no precipitation whatsoever – which is what I’m leaning towards – while others develop an area of showers in the evening and move it through the Red River Valley.

While the possibility certainly exists for some rain tomorrow night, or even an isolated thunderstorm, it’s most likely that the weather will remain dry in the Red River Valley. We’ll be sure to provide an update in the comments below as things become more clear later today. The temperature will drop into the upper teens overnight.

Thursday & Friday

Warm temperatures will continue Thursday with daytime highs once again in the upper 20s. Skies will be mixed with an outside chance of isolated showers in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley. Winds will continue to be light.

Partly cloudy skies with a slight chance for isolated shower activity returns Thursday night as temperatures dip into the upper teens.

Friday will bring partly cloudy skies with a high once again in the mid-to-upper 20’s. Friday night will bring partly cloudy skies with a low in the mid-teens.

Weekend Look-Ahead

The GDPS is forecasting some rainfall on Saturday night as a weak cold front sweeps through the region.
The GDPS is forecasting some rainfall on Saturday night as a weak cold front sweeps through the region.

Summer weather continues right through the weekend with plenty of sunshine on Saturday and Sunday with daytime highs in the upper 20’s. A cold front will advance through the Red River Valley late Saturday afternoon through the evening and bring a chance for thunderstorms to the region, otherwise the weekend into the start of next week looks dry.