We’ll see cooler weather to start the week alongside some more shower activity as the upper low that has plagued the region for the past week finally makes an exit.
More organized shower activity is expected today throughout much of Southern Manitoba.
Monday
Monday
20°C / 12°C
A mix of sun and cloud with showers.
Today will feature below normal temperatures and a good chance of rain. Shower activity should pop-up relatively quickly during the day as daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere. High temperatures will be near 20C with a light west wind shifting to northerly in the afternoon.
Tuesday
Tuesday
19°C / 10°C
A mix of sun and cloud with a slight chance of showers.
Tuesday will see temperatures cool a bit further from Monday’s values. High temperatures will be in the upper teens, with a slight chance of showers sticking around. The wind will be breezy and from the north.
Wednesday
Wednesday
22°C / 12°C
A mix of sun and cloud with a slight chance of showers.
Wednesday will see little change from the previous two days. Temperatures will warm slightly from Tuesday, with highs into the low twenties, but a slight chance of showers will remain.
Long Range
We should see temperatures rebound to normal or above-normal values by week’s end. In addition to the warmer weather, models are also indicating that more humid air will return and we may even head into the first multi-day hot and humid event of the summer.
Models also hint at the risk of strong thunderstorms returning by next weekend, but it’s too soon to say for sure.
This weekend will be marked by scattered shower activity persisting as this week’s stubborn upper low slowly exits the region.
It has been an extremely wet week over the Prairies. Things started off with a system that moved into the region late last week and ended up producing nearly 80% of a month’s worth of rain in just two days for some communities. Here in Winnipeg, another 20-25mm of rain that fell yesterday has put rainfall totals over the last 6 days over 90mm, which is 101% of the average total monthly rainfall for June.[1]
While no significant rainfall amounts are in the forecast for the next few days, we won’t quite be able to shake the wet weather. A laggard of an upper low will slowly work it’s way eastwards into Northern Ontario over the next few days, keeping scattered shower activity over the Red River Valley as it does so.
Friday
21°C / 15°C
Scattered showers. Local amounts 5-10mm.
Saturday
23°C / 15°C
Scattered showers developing.
Sunday
23°C / 14°C
Scattered showers developing.
Today will see some shower activity in the area this morning, then a bit of a break before things warm up and scattered showers redevelop for the midday into the afternoon. Rainfall totals for the day will be highly variable thanks to the nature of the showers, but as a widespread generalization, around 5-10mm could fall in localized areas that end up seeing more shower activity than other areas. The high will be near 21°C with a south or southwesterly wind at around 20km/h.
Some shower activity will persist overnight, likely through much of the Red River Valley, with another 2-5mm falling. The low will be near 15°C.
Saturday and Sunday will be very similar days with highs near 23°C and lows near 14 or 15°C. Both days will see scattered showers developing around midday as the temperature warms up and we hit our convective temperature for the day. The shower activity will likely be more widespread on Saturday than on Sunday, but both days see a fairly likely chance of any one spot getting at least a little wet. Winds will be southwesterly on Saturday at around 20km/h and northwesterly on Sunday again near 20km/h.
A Chance to Dry Out?
It does look like next week will be much dryer than this past week. No precipitation is expected through the first half of the week, but by the second half of the week it looks like another system will begin to work its way into southwest Manitoba and spread eastwards for the weekend. Not much to say about it at this point since it’s a ways out and model agreement is still quite low.
It’s safe to say next week will bring at least a few days to dry out across Southern Manitoba with temperatures climbing towards the upper 20’s by mid-week!
The 1981-2010 average monthly rainfall for June in Winnipeg is 88.9mm. ↩
Although nothing as notable as this past weekend’s rain event is in store, unsettled weather returns for the second half of the week.
Another sizeable low pressure system is making it’s wet presence felt, but this time the hardest hit area will be Southern Alberta where some portions in the foothills may receive as much as 200mm of rain this week. This system will slowly lumber eastwards through the next few days, slowly weakening as it does so but still producing thunderstorms and showers as it goes.
Wednesday: Severe Thunderstorm Risk for Extreme SW Manitoba
Wednesday
25°C / 13°C
More cloud than sun. Warm & breezy.
Winnipeg will see fairly pleasant weather today with mixed skies, likely leaning towards more cloud than sun, and a high near 25°C with a fairly stiff easterly wind at 30-40km/h thanks to a surface trough building southeastwards through North Dakota.
The main upper low, the heart of this large disturbance, will gradually edge eastwards through the day and will trigger thunderstorms, with some severe storms possible, through portions of southern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba. Shower activity will start off the day in much of Southern Saskatchewan, but the southeast portion of the province will likely see things destabilize enough through the day that thunderstorms are likely by mid-to-late afternoon. The storm activity is most likely to initiate through western North Dakota and then build north/northwestward along the surface trough into SE Saskatchewan and into extreme SW Manitoba through the early evening.
There is an organized threat of severe weather with these storms; we’ve gone with a slight risk due to almost every severe weather parameter looking fairly good except lacking in some subtle way. The main threats will be strong winds and large hail, especially out of any storms that develop early and are sustained as discrete supercells. If the storms develop into a cohesive line, the severe threat will be diminished, although non-zero. There will be a very slight chance for tornadoes thanks to excellent low-level shear, low cloud bases, and a vorticity rich environment being advected eastwards by the upper-level low.
Today will bring a slight risk of severe thunderstorms into SE Saskatchewan and SW Manitoba.
The severe storm threat will push eastwards into the Virden & Melita regions of Manitoba in the early evening with the main threats being strong winds and large hail. It does look like the tornado threat should be restricted to the Saskatchewan side of the border. Southwest Manitoba is in for quite a soaking overnight as the storms expand into an area of convectively driven rain; around 15-20mm is likely for most areas south of the Trans-Canada Highway and west of the Red River Valley (RRV), with as much as 40-50mm possible in areas that see thunderstorm activity as well.
As the area of showers pushes eastwards, it will gradually weaken into an area of showers with possible embedded thundershowers. It looks to reach Winnipeg by Thursday morning.
Thursday: Back to Wet Weather
Thursday
23°C / 14°C
Periods of rain. Around 10mm.
Thursday will be a cloudy day with a high near 23°C. Shower activity will be in the region in the morning and lift off to the northwest, however while that happens a new batch of rain will be develop to our south and lift northwards through the RRV. Around 10mm seems most likely through the day across most of the region, although if heavier shower activity ends up developing we may see closer to 15mm here in Winnipeg.
The shower activity will taper off on Thursday evening as it all lifts northwestwards into the Interlake and Parkland regions of the province. Winnipeg will see some clear breaks and a low near 14°C.
Friday: Cold Low Showers
Friday
23°C / 14°C
Mixed skies; showers or thundershowers developing midday.
Friday will see us underneath the upper-level low which essentially means that there will be a bunch of cold air high up in the atmosphere. With mixed skies, we’ll see temperatures increase towards our high of 23°C fairly quickly through the morning. By mid-day, we’ll likely have hit our high temperature and the atmosphere will become quite unstable. Expect widespread shower and thundershower activity through the Red River Vally. Rainfall amounts will be highly variable and dependant on how many showers any one spot sees and how fast things move along.
Overnight, the shower activity will consolidate to right around the upper low on Friday night as it drifts through our region and into Minnesota. The temperature in Winnipeg will drop to around 14°C.
Southern Manitoba will be under the influence of a complex low pressure system this weekend that will spread multiple bands of precipitation across the province. Things are a little uncertain for Sunday – Father’s Day and the Manitoba Marathon – but it’s looking probable that it may be quite wet.
Friday
21°C / 12°C
Increasing cloud; chance of afternoon showers. 5-10mm of rain overnight.
Saturday
18°C / 14°C
Cloudy; some light rain or drizzle possible.
Sunday
18°C / 10°C
Rain likely; up to 20mm.
Today will be a relatively nice day. Cloud coverage will gradually increase and there will be a slight chance of showers in the Red River Valley this afternoon as rain spreads eastwards across southern Manitoba. The temperature will climb to around 21°C.
Showers will move into the Red River Valley through the evening with around 5-10mm falling. While there may be an odd rumble of thunder, overall the thunderstorm threat is low to non-existent. Rain will move from southwest to northeast and lift into the Interlake region, leaving us with overcast skies by morning. The low temperature will sit near 12°C.
Total expected rainfall for the first wave of rain today through tonight into Saturday morning.
Saturday will be a mainly cloudy day with some showers or drizzle likely. It doesn’t look too wet, but overall it will be sort of a dreary day with sporadic precipitation. Further north, through the Parkland region eastward into the Interlake, there will likely be rain for much of the day. The high temperature will be near 18°C and expect the temperature to drop to around 14°C on Saturday night.
Uncertain Sunday
Sunday, which marks Father’s Day and the ever-popular Manitoba Marathon, has a little more uncertainty associated with it. The general weather picture shows a stalled out low pressure system over SE Saskatchewan and SW Manitoba while a Colorado low lifts northwards through the Dakotas. The evolution of the feature is very complicated, and small changes in the upper-level flow could mean big changes to the expected weather over Southern Manitoba. I’ll give the most likely solution right now, and leave updates in the comments below if it looks like an alternate solution becomes more plausible.
The GDPS is forecasting a very wet Sunday with 10-20mm of rain through many areas of Southern Manitoba.
Sunday morning will provide a cloudy start to the marathon with some scattered showers or drizzle about. The temperature should be around 15°C. By mid-day, more concentrated shower activity will push northwards through the Red River Valley, with an area of rain covering much of southern Manitoba (save for locations near the Saskatchewan border) by early-to-mid afternoon.
The rain will persist into the evening and taper off by Monday morning. Total rainfall amounts are quite variable, but overall it seems like 10-25mm is possible in most regions, with higher amounts near the US border through SE Manitoba and along the western escarpment of the Red River Vally northwards into the Riding Mountains. Anywhere from 25-40mm seems possible in these areas.
The temperature will drop to around 10°C on Sunday night after the rain tapers off.
Unsettled Pattern Continues
Next week is looking fairly unsettled as yet another major disturbance takes up residence on the Prairies. In general, more cloud than sun will be seen through the week. Heavy rainfall will set up in Alberta on Monday, and as the system develops it looks like a large area of convection will develop across the Northern Plains and lift northwards into the southern Prairies, including Winnipeg and the Red River Valley, by mid-week.
It’s a long ways off, though, so we’ll take a closer look later in the weekend when things become a little more clear.
