The final day of the Victoria Day long weekend will see rain over much of southern Manitoba. It seems that early-week rain is becoming a new tradition of sorts.
A low pressure system will bring rain to much of southern Manitoba on Victoria Day
Monday
Monday
16°C / 9°C
Periods of rain.
A low pressure system moving out of the northern United States will bring moderate rain to most of southern Manitoba today. Accumulations of 5-15mm are expected in Winnipeg and the Red River Valley. Areas further west, in south-western Manitoba, can expected accumulations of 15-25mm. There’s a slight chance of a thunderstorm in areas near the international border, but they should amount to little more than a rumble or two and slightly heavier rainfall.
Tuesday
Tuesday
13°C / 10°C
Showers.
The low pressure system from Monday will remained stalled out over southern Manitoba on Tuesday. That means we’ll see showers continue through the day on Tuesday, but actual rainfall accumulations will generally be light.
Total rainfall expected from Sunday evening to the time everything tapers off on Tuesday evening.
Wednesday
Wednesday
16°C / 4°C
Mainly sunny.
The weather will finally begin to relent on Wednesday, as skies clear and temperatures climb into the mid or upper teens. There will be a breezy north wind on Wednesday, but it will be a nice day overall. Wednesday’s return to reasonable weather signals a major pattern change that is expected to bring much warmer conditions by the weekend.
Long Range
The long range forecast is finally looking hot for a change. Medium-range weather models suggest we could reach the upper twenties, or near thirty degrees by the weekend. There’s still some uncertainty in terms of how hot it will get, but it definitely looks like some above normal weather is finally on the way!
A couple more days of unsettled weather will give way to some of the warmest temperatures of the year.
The main weather story will be gradual improvement as the week progresses. Currently we’re under the influence of a broad trough of low pressure that has brought scattered showers to the Red River Valley over the past couple days.
A complicated, high-amplitude flow is developing over the eastern Prairies.
Multiple bands of precipitation will be in place over Southern Manitoba today thanks to multiple disturbances and a fair amount of instability. As the upper-level flow finally organizes itself, a Colorado Low eject northeastwards on Thursday bringing potentially significant rainfall to the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba. The unsettled weather will linger through Thursday night but then a weak ridge of high pressure will begin building in from the west, bringing more settled weather with relatively warm temperatures, especially compared to what we’ve been suffering through so far this spring.
Wednesday
12°C / 6°C
Mainly cloudy. Occasional showers likely.
Thursday
12°C / 4°C
Showers, possibly heavy at times. 5-15mm.
Friday
15°C / 5°C
Clearing.
Today
Today will bring mainly cloudy skies to the Red River Valley as a large low pressure complex stretching from Northern Saskatchewan to Colorado slowly begins organizing itself. More organized showers will fall through much of the day west of the Red River Valley through southwest regions and the Parkland with total accumulations around 5-10mm, but here in the valley we will likely only see scraps of elevated convective showers occasionally moving over the area.
I say likely since there is pretty high uncertainty in exactly how this system will evolve today. The band of showers to our west will slowly creep eastwards towards the RRV through the day and likely push into the western Red River Valley this afternoon. There’s a chance that it will continue pushing eastwards, and if that’s the case then we might see some more organized precipitation later in the afternoon into the evening. There’s also a very outside chance that this whole thing bumps eastwards mid-morning and we’re the ones stuck under the showers for the day.
Complicating matters will be a secondary band of precipitation that will develop this afternoon and lift northwards out of North Dakota and Minnesota. It’s currently forecast to just clip SE Manitoba, but if the upper level trough tilts a bit more, which it has been doing more than the models have been forecasting for 2 days now, that band of rain could end up inside the Red River Valley.
As a third complicating factor, there seems to be fairly unstable mid-levels over most of Southern Manitoba, so even if the precipitation stays to our west and east, there will still be a chance for some light showers zipping across the valley.
Total precipitation by Thursday evening from the RDPS. The question is will it even be close to right?
It’s a very complicated setup; most models agree that there will be rain on the western and eastern fringes of the Red River Valley with little in between[1], however slight variations in the actual positions of systems could change things quite dramatically. For that reason I’m say that there’s a good chance we’ll see occasional showers today. We may see more, we may see less, but this is a situation where trying to be any more specific than that will likely be a futile effort.
What is a little more certain is that we’ll see a high near 12°C today with light southeasterly winds.
The threat for showers will continue through the overnight period through most of the Red River Valley. We’ll drop to a low around 5 or 6°C with winds shifting around to the north.
Thursday
Thursday looks to be the most active day. A strong Colorado Low will track into Minnesota, spreading rain ahead of it into Southern Manitoba. Moderate instability aloft coupled with strong lift and enhanced convergence thanks to the deformation zone will result in showers, potentially fairly heavy at times, through much of Southern Manitoba. There may even be a very slight chance of a rumble of thunder or two.
The wet weather will likely last through much of the overnight period as well. By the end, anywhere from 5-15mm of rain seems likely over the Red River Valley; amounts will likely vary over short distances, and it’s impossible to say where will see the most rain until we’re closer to the event. I’d really love to be more specific, but with this rapidly developing, complex system, the models can be quite misleading and the best forecast will come from observing what’s actually happening and how things are developing in real time.
The high temperature on Thursday will be near 11-12°C once again, and the overnight low near 5°C.
Friday and Beyond
The weather finally looks to turn towards a more pleasant pattern for the end of the week. A cut-off cold low will spin aimlessly over the northwestern Prairies, leaving us on the warmer side of things as slightly milder air manages to work its way into the region. No substantial warm push is on the way, but with the cold air locked up well to our northwest, temperatures should manage to climb to around 15-16°C on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
It seems quite likely that we’ll see our warmest day of the year this weekend. Currently, the warmest day we’ve had was a mere 15.1°C on April 23rd, but Saturday looks likely to beat that by a degree or so. Overnight lows are expected to sit near 5-6°C through Friday, Saturday and Sunday, which will be right around normal for this time of year.
Skies should be mainly sunny on Friday and Saturday, however we will likely see some cloud and a very slight chance of a shower on Sunday as a weak low pressure system pushes into western Manitoba.
And I’m inclined to believe it given how often any sort of convective precipitation manages to end up on either side of Winnipeg. ↩
Summer weather will continue to elude us as a complicated weather pattern is set to bring more unsettled weather this week. A series of moderate to strong disturbances will move through Southern Manitoba, each bringing a chance for rain. The first major disturbance looks to move through on Tuesday, with a second major disturbance coming through on Wednesday night.
The forecast surface weather pattern on Monday afternoon
At this point it appears that each of these pieces of energy will just bring light to moderate rain to parts of southern Manitoba. However, there is always the potential for heavier amounts if convective elements (i.e. thunderstorms) become embedded within the larger area of rain. These disturbances will be coming in from the south-west along a strong jet stream.
This strong jet may also be the focus for severe thunderstorms in the US Great Plains this week, so you may wish to keep tabs on that if you’re a thunderstorm enthusiast!
Monday
Monday
12°C / 5°C
Mix of Sun and Cloud
Today will be seasonably cool, with high temperatures in the low teens. Skies will be a mixture of sun and cloud to mainly cloudy, but at least no precipitation is expected. There will be a breezy south wind during the day, but it shouldn’t be quite as windy as it was on the weekend.
Tuesday
Tuesday
15°C / 6°C
Mainly Cloudy. Showers.
Tuesday is expected to feature showers in much of southern Manitoba. There is also a slight risk of a thundershower, which may lead to isolated pockets of heavier rain. Temperatures will be in the low to mid teens with a south wind once again.
Wednesday
Wednesday
15°C / 2°C
Mainly Cloudy. Chance of Showers.
Wednesday will be, you guessed it, unsettled once again, with the threat of showers remaining in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be in the low teens, with a light northerly wind.
Long Range
The long range forecast suggests we’ll see warmer temperatures this weekend. By warmer, we’re talking probably upper teens or maybe low twenties. It won’t be anything spectacular, but those values will feel quite warm considering the weather we’ve seen as of late.
Cool, showery weather will round out another week of below-normal temperatures in the Red River Valley. Unfortunately, we won’t see any significant warming through the next few days, keeping our daytime highs 3-6°C below seasonal1.
The RDPS shows convectively driven rainfall this evening through much of Southern Mantioba.
The weather over the next several days will be dominated by a series of disturbances sliding southeastwards across the province ahead of an incoming cold low aloft. The upper-level flow will keep us locked in cooler air until early next week – at the least – until any sort of significant shift in the overall weather pattern may begin to allow more seasonal warmth to begin working it’s way towards the province.
Friday
Friday
12°C / 2°C
Early morning showers ending then a slight chance of showers through the day. More showers in the evening.
We’ll see a few lingering showers from the overnight period this morning as a low pressure system exits the Red River Valley into Minnesota. The organized preciptiation should taper off fairly early this morning, leaving us with some mixed skies and temperatures on their way to a high of around 11°C.
A weak trough line will extend along a NW/SE line through the Red River Valley, and it’s possible that we may see a few disorganized showers through the day as a result of the daytime heating. If anything develops, it will likely be short-lived and relatively unremarkable thanks to fairly limited low-level instability.
Another low pressure system will slide along the trough line into the Red River Valley this evening, bringing with it another batch of showers. The instability associated with this second low looks rather decent, and if it arrives early in the evening while we’re still near our daytime high, the showers that develop – in particular further to the southwest near the Turtle Mountains and eastwards towards the Pembina Valley – could intensify enough to become a few thunderstorms. There’s no real risk of severe weather, but at this point I think that any sign of summer, even a thundershower or thunderstorm, would be a welcome sight to most people.
The Weekend
Saturday
8°C / -1°C
A few early morning showers, then mainly sunny.
Sunday
10°C / 0°C
Mainly sunny.
Saturday will start out similar to Friday morning, plus or minus a couple hours, as a few showers right underneath the upper-level disturbance associated with Friday night’s low pressure system exit out of the Red River Valley. We’re in for the coolest day of the weekend with a high of only around 8°C as a northerly flow continues to push unseasonal Arctic air southwards over the region. There will be some afternoon cloud that pops up and it should stay at that; the overall level of instability will be quite a bit less than Friday. Saturday night will be another late-season sub-zero night with temperatures dropping to -1 or -2°C through the Red River Valley under clear skies.
Sunday will feature light winds and mainly sunny skies with temperatures climbing to around 11°C. Some cloud cover looks to push in through the evening hours and we’ll see an overnight low near 0°C.
Next Week
The start of next week looks cool with mixed skies for much of the first half of the week. Early indications are that a series of low pressure systems tracking through the Northern Plains will bring showers to Southern Saskatchewan and perhaps southwestern Manitoba, however a blocking ridge will shunt precipitation southwards into the States, leaving us with cool, dry weather and variable cloud. The NAEFS2 continues to predict below-normal temperatures in the 8-14 day range.
Seasonal daytime highs over the next few days sit around 16-17°C. ↩
