The NAFES continues to forecast below-normal temperatures.
Those looking for warmer, summer-like weather are going to have to look elsewhere as the unsettled, below-normal temperatures we’ve become so familliar are set to continue through the next week or two.
Wendesday
10°C / 1°C
Mixed skies with a chance of showers.
Thursday
10°C / 0°C
Mainly sunny.
Friday
10°C / 0°C
Increasing cloud; chance of showers.
We’ll see mixed skies today as cloud cover pushes westwards from Northern Ontario as the Colorado Low that’s been the genesis for the massive tornado outbreak in the Deep South over the past few days. Closer to home the weather won’t be dangerous in the least; we’ll see just a slight chance of some shower activity pushing into the Red River Valley from the east. We’ll see a high near 9 or 10°C with winds out of the north at 30 gusting 50km/h. Things will clear out tonight as we drop to around 0°C.
Thursday will be quite similar to Tuesday: mainly sunny, a high near 10°C and a bit of a wind out of the east. Otherwise quite unremarkable. We’ll drop to near 0°C on Thursday night.
Friday will bring the next batch of slightly unsettled weather as a disturbance slumps southeastwards out of the Northern Prairies. Our temperature will once again climb to around 10°C, but we’ll see more cloud than sun and what, at this point, looks to be a decent chance of some more shower activity. Expect a low near – surprise! – 0°C once again.
Cool Weekend
Things become sunnier for the weekend, but temperatures don’t look to improve for the weekend. Any potentially lingering shower activity will move off on Saturday morning, leaving us with some sunshine and a high near 9°C. Sunday will be mainly sunny with a high near 10 or 11°C.
The below-normal temperatures[1] will continue through the next week. Another chance for rainfall looks to move into the region early next week as a low pressure system works it’s way thorugh the Northern Plains of the United States.
Normal daytime highs for this time of year are around 16°C. ↩
This weekend will bring a brief reprieve from the wet weather before a Colorado Low begins impacting the region for the start of next week. Temperatures will remain below normal, but we should see plenty of sunshine with just relatively light south-easterly winds.
Friday
8°C / 0°C
Mainly cloudy. Chance of showers or drizzle.
Saturday
10°C / 3°C
Partly cloudy.
Sunday
11°C / 4°C
Increasing cloud.
Today will bring mostly cloudy skies with a chance for some lingering showers or drizzle as the system that’s been impacting us over the past few days slides off into Ontario. Clouds will begin to break up a bit in the afternoon as we head towards our high of around 8°C, however it won’t be until the evening or overnight period until we see the clouds actually begin to clear out.
Saturday look like the nicest day of the next few, with more sun than cloud and a high near 10 or 11°C. The wind will be out of the southeast at around 20-30km/h, but otherwise it’ll be a pleasant – albeit cooler than normal – spring day. We’ll drop to around 2 or 3°C on Saturday night under mainly clear skies.
Sunday will herald the arrival of the next storm to impact the Prairies: a massive Colorado Low that looks to stall out over the northern Plains of the United States and absolutely smother the Prairies in precipitation.
24hr. precipitation forecast from the GDPS showing anywhere as much as 30-40mm of rain from Sunday night through Monday.
This system looks to be extremely complex with multiple features interacting with each other: the Colorado Low itself, a large inverted trough that looks to develop along a north/south line through Saskatchewan, and the occlusion of the upper-level low centre that will stall the system out over the Northern Plains. Subtle variations in any one of these features can dramatically alter the weather outcome, let alone how those variations will interact with each other across these features. In addition, there will be a fairly significant high pressure system through Northern Manitoba that will surely do it’s best to inject dry air into the system and really sharpen up the northern edge of it. Needless to say, we’ll be keeping a close eye on this one and have more details on where, and how much, precipitation might actually happen in the comments below as things begin to come together.
Supplications for summer will be silenced as the stage is set for a sloppy spring storm that will supply snow to Southern Manitoba. Two disturbances will impact the region – one this morning and the other tonight through Saturday – and bring decidedly messy spring-time weather to the region followed by a surprisingly cold air mass for mid-April. Get those snow shovels out and read on to find out what to expect in your area.
Disturbance #1
The leading disturbance moving through the province this morning is by far the weaker of the two and will move through quite quickly. Disorganized showers or flurries are possible across the region through the morning hours, then we’ll see the clouds begin to clear out giving some sun for the afternoon. We’ll reach a high of only around +4°C today with light northeasterly winds.
Friday
4°C / -3°C
Cloudy periods. Slight chance of morning flurries or showers.
Saturday
1°C / -8°C
Snow. 5-10cm.
Sunday
-2°C / -14°C
Mainly sunny.
Disturbance #2
Our reprieve from the snow threat will be short-lived, however, as another system pushes into Southern Manitoba tonight. Cloud will stream into the Red River Valley this evening ahead of the main precipitation associated with this low, which will not push into the RRV until the second half of the overnight period. Temperatures will drop to only around -3 or -4°C overnight.
As the precipitation shield undergoes rapid expansion early in the evening, snow, heavy at times, will fall along and south of the Trans-Canada Highway in southwestern Manitoba through a good portion of the night which will result in some of the highest accumulations for this storm. By the time all is said and done, 10-20cm of snow is possible over southwest Manitoba.
Further east in the Red River Valley, snow will push in much later in the overnight period, first spreading into the Morden/Winkler region and then pushing northeastwards. Snow will reach Winnipeg by early Saturday morning. The heaviest snow will fall in the southern portion of the RRV with enhanced amounts possible in the southwest corner near the escarpment where upslope winds will help enhance snowfall.
The main snowfall event for the Red River Valley will occur through the day on Saturday. Weak warm advection aloft will do little to help temperatures at the surface which will be stuck out of the north feeding cooler, dryer air into this system. Coupled with the snow, temperatures through the valley won’t climb much more than a degree or two above zero. It will likely be warm enough at the surface (and aloft) to melt some of the snow that falls. This will reduce snowfall amounts a bit, but given the intensity of the precipitation expected, snow accumulation should overpower the melting factor fairly quickly.
Total snowfall expected Friday night through Saturday. Amounts may be lower depending on how much melts.
In general, most areas seem to be set to see around 5-10cm of snow, perhaps a little less if there’s more melting. With temperatures near zero, it will be a somewhat wet, heavy, sloppy snow that will likely make driving very unpleasant and slippery. The snow should taper off on Saturday evening as the system pushes off to the east. Skies will clear in advance of an Arctic ridge pushing into the Prairies and we’ll drop to an overnight low near -8 or -9°C.
Cooler Weather Ahead
Behind this system, very cool arctic air will push into the Prairies. Sunday will be mainly sunny with some afternoon cloud but the temperature will top out more than 10°C below normal at only around -2°C.
The start of next week continues the sunny trend, although Monday will be nearly 20°C below normal with a high of only -8°C. More seasonal air looks to build back in midweek.
The warmest day of 2014 is on tap for Winnipeg as a low pressure system tracking through the northern Prairies brings with it an unseasonably warm air mass. With the passage of a cold front today we’ll also see strong – potentially near warning level in some areas – winds that will usher in slightly cooler temperatures than we’ve seen the past few days as well as a slight chance for a shower or two. With so much snow left on the ground, however, the big question is exactly how warm will it get?
Wednesday
10°C / 0°C
Partly cloudy; windy later today.
Thursday
7°C / -3°C
Mainly sunny. Winds gradually diminsihing.
Friday
7°C / -6°C
Mainly sunny.
Today
We’re off to a great start today with temperatures already above the freezing mark thanks to the incoming mild air and relatively breezy conditions that persisted through the overnight period. Warmer air will continue to stream in through the morning hours, producing a brisk southerly wind through the valley at 30-40km/h. Temperatures will climb the best they can, but the remaining snowpack will do a lot to keep us cooler.
In order for us to reach the full potential of the warm air coming in, we need to be able to mix it down to the surface. The best way to create instability in the lower levels is the sun; it shines down and warms up the surface until it gets hot enough (assuming the sun is strong enough) to create instability and begin mixing the lower atmosphere. This mixing process can help bring warmer air down and maintain a warmer temperature. Unfortunately, snow can dramatically inhibit this process through two main ways:
Snow is white, so it reflects the incoming energy from the sun back out into the sky. This prevents that energy from being put into warming up the ground or air in the low levels.
Snow is frozen, so when the temperatures begin to climb above zero the snow begins to melt, removing energy from the air and cooling it off.
With no snow, all the energy from the sun can go into heating the surface. Today we’ll see a pretty big difference in temperatures between areas with snow versus areas without snow. Here in Winnipeg, temperatures will likely climb to around 9-10°C before a cold front pushes through this afternoon. In the snow-free areas of North Dakota and a few portions of the western Red River Valley, temperatures will likely climb into the mid-to-high teens, possibly as high as the low 20’s.
Foreast temperatures for this afternoon from the RDPS. Note the warmer temperatures in North Dakota (no snow) and downwind of the western escarpment of the Manitoba Red River Valley.
The abnormally warm weather will be short-lived as a cold front blasts through the province midday. Strong westerly to northwesterly winds with gusts as high as 70km/h will push into the Red River Valley this afternoon. Temperatures may actually climb a degree or two behind the cold front before they begin to drop a bit thanks to all the warm air aloft that is able to be mixed down. There will be a slight chance for a shower with the passage of the cold front, however the chances are better to the north of the Red River Valley, where the lift is stronger, and in North Dakota, where the instability is greater. We’ll head to a low of around 0°C tonight.
The Remainder of the Week
Tomorrow will be a mainly sunny day with stronger winds that will slowly diminish as the day progresses eastwards. We’ll see a high near 7°C and a low near -3°C. Friday will be another pleasant day with mainly sunny skies and relatively light winds. The high will be near 7°C and the low will drop to around -6°C as some cooler air makes a brief appearance for the weekend.
