Tag: Showers

Warming Up, Then Cooling Down

Brad Leave a comment

After a snowy, but mild weekend, we’ll see some warmer weather return – but it will be short-lived.

A southerly flow will bring slightly warmer air to Southern Manitoba on Monday

Monday

Monday

Mix of Sun and Cloud. Chance of flurries/showers
-1°C / -4°C

A southerly flow will develop through Southern Manitoba on Monday, bringing some slightly warmer weather along with it. There may be a few flurries on Monday, but no significant precipitation is expected. The wind will be relatively light and from the south.

Tuesday

Tuesday

Mainly cloudy.
3°C / 0°C

Tuesday will be warmer than Monday, as a developing low pressure system ramps up that southerly flow from Monday. Hopefully Tuesday’s warm conditions will allow some of the weekend’s snowfall to melt. The wind won’t be much stronger than on Monday, but the direction will shift to be more from the south-east.

Wednesday

Wednesday

Decreasing Cloudiness. Temperature Falling.
-6°C / -14°C

The low pressure system that brought the warmer weather to Southern Manitoba on Tuesday will move into the region on Wednesday. It appears that this system will generate an area of moderate snowfall to the north of its track, but no precipitation to the south of its track. At this point it appears the system will track in a fashion that results in no snowfall for most of Southern Manitoba, save for perhaps some parts of Western Manitoba. Regardless of whether or not this system brings us snowfall, it will bring us colder weather. A strong cold front associated with this low will bring down another arctic airmass, dropping temperatures well below zero for Wednesday and Thursday.

Long Range

The long range forecast currently looks on the cold side. Following the passage of that cold front on Wednesday models don’t hint at any immediate return to warmer conditions. Bear in mind that we are quickly moving into late November, so warm weather will being harder and harder to come by. On the bright side there is still no significant snow in the forecast, so we’re not in a true winter pattern quite yet!

Snow-Free Start to November

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While we mentioned the likelihood for snow or rain for today on Wednesday, things have changed thanks to a stronger-than-expected Colorado Low hitting Southern Ontario. The intensity of this system has amplified the jet stream and as a result the precipitation once expected over the Red River Valley will slide to our southwest. How will the rest of the weekend fare? Read on to find out!

Friday

6°C / -4°C
A few clouds.
Saturday

6°C / -5°C
Mainly sunny.
Sunday

7°C / 2°C
Becoming mainly cloudy. Chance of late-day showers.

We’ll see very pleasant days today and tomorrow as clouds stay mostly out of the way and we enjoy slightly above normal temperatures1 with daytime highs both days around 6°C. There will be a little more cloud today than there will be tomorrow, but it shouldn’t put a damper on either day. Overnight lows will continue to be seasonal around -5°C.

Sunday will herald the approach of the Next Big System™ to the Prairies. A low pressure system pushing out of Southern Alberta will spread cloud eastwards into Southern Manitoba through the day. While we may start off seeing the sun, by midday we should be mostly cloudy and by the late afternoon we’ll likely be completely overcast. There may be a slight chance of some isolated shower activity by late afternoon into the evening hours, however that threat would be confined strictly to areas along and north of the Trans-Canada Highway.

12hr. accumulated precipitation (liquid-eqivalent) for Sunday night.
12hr. accumulated precipitation (liquid-eqivalent) for Sunday night.

Rain showers are likely overnight into Monday morning, but no significant accumulations are expected as the bulk of the precipitation remains through the Interlake. By Monday afternoon all precipitation should have lifted north out of the Red River Valley. While this system looks like it has the potential to deliver a decent amount of snow to the Central Prairies, it looks like it will be a relative non-event here in the Red River Valley.

Things mixed for a day or two before another system tracks into Southern Manitoba mid-week.

  1. Average temperatures for the beginning of November in Winnipeg sit around 4°C. ↩

One Warm Day

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A large low pressure system pushing across Northern Manitoba will drag a warmer air mass over the Red River Valley today bringing near-normal temperatures back to the region. The reprieve from cooler temperatures will be short-lived as a reinforcing blast of cold air will quickly push into the region in the wake of this system.

Highs across Southern Manitoba will push into the high single digits before colder air pushes in again tonight. Image is afternoon temperatures; blue is ≤ 0°C while the brighter yellow colour is ~ 10°C.
Highs across Southern Manitoba will push into the high single digits before colder air pushes in again tonight. Image is afternoon temperatures; blue is ≤ 0°C while the brighter yellow colour is ~ 10°C.

Warm weather will wash across the Red River Valley today as mainly sunny skies combined with warming temperatures aloft and a (somewhat breezy) south-westerly wind push the temperature up up up to…a seasonal 8°C. Yes, it’s a sad state of affairs when a potent low pressure system dragging a huge amount of warm air across the Prairies brings us to just seasonal temperatures. That being said, it will be a pleasant break from the cloudy, cool weather we’ve had over the past while.

The reprieve will be short-lived, though, as a cold front slices southwards this afternoon. It will push through the Red River Valley late in the afternoon bringing strong northwesterly winds and a chance of some scattered showers behind the front. This will mark the return of cooler weather back to the region. We’ll head to a low of around 0°C and areas in the lee of the lakes will see a continued chance of showers or flurries through the night as weak lake-effect precipitation is generated thanks to cooler air continuing to push in through the night.

Friday

8°C / 0°C
Mainly sunny with some afternoon cloud. Slight chance of late afternoon showers.
Saturday

4°C / -2°C
A mix of sun and cloud.
Sunday

3°C / -7°C
Mainly cloudy; snow or rain possible.

Saturday will bring a mix of sun and cloud here, with the morning on the sunnier side and the afternoon moving towards the cloudier side, in Winnipeg with chances of showers or flurries continuing in the lee of Lake Manitoba and the lee of Lake Winnipeg. There’s a very (very) slight chance of an isolated shower in the afternoon here in Winnipeg, but it won’t likely even be worth all the words I’ve already spent on it.

Saturday night will be partly cloudy with a low of around –2°C.

Sunday will be a mainly cloudy day as an upper trough slumps across the province. There may be a few sunny breaks, but for the most part things will be cloudy. There looks to be a chance at seeing some snow or rain, especially through the morning, but there’s still a fair amount of disagreement as to the amount of precipitation that will fall over the Red River Valley. At this point it looks about 50/50, although given the expected dynamics over the Western Prairies, I’d say that it’s more likely that we won’t see anything. The possibility is certainly there, though, and we’ll keep an eye on it as the day nears.

Cooler Weather Pushing In

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A cold trough pushing into Manitoba will bring showers today and with cold air building over the province, showers may turn to flurries tonight as temperatures drop. The arrival of cooler air will mark a notable regime change which will leave us in a stagnant pattern with slightly below-normal temperatures.

Friday

7°C / -2°C
Becoming mainly cloudy; showers in the afternoon.
Saturday

5°C / -2°C
A mix of sun and cloud; becoming cloudy in the evening.
Sunday

2°C / -4°C
Mostly cloudy; scattered flurries.

Today will bring increasing cloud this morning which will give way to afternoon showers as a trough slumps through Southern Manitoba. The chance for showers will be very high through Winnipeg & the northern Red River Valley, but through the southern half of the Red River Valley it seems like the showers will be more scattered in nature. Our daytime high of around 7°C will be a couple degrees below our seasonal average of 9°C, and it’s only going to go downhill from there.

Areas that may see lake-effect showers or flurries on Friday night.

Areas that may see lake-effect showers or flurries on Friday night.

We’ll see the showers die off through the evening hours, but it won’t be the end of things; as temperaturs drop in the evening, lake effect showers or flurries will develop in the lee of Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba. Here in Winnipeg it seems like we’ll just see a slight chance of seeing showers or flurries overnight, however to the west and east of the city it looks quite probable.

For the areas that do see precipitation tonight, it may be the first snowfall of the season. While there won’t be much snow and it likely won’t stick, it would not be surprising at all if there were some white flakes falling from the sky tonight. Most areas will see partly cloudy skies tonight save for those underneath the lake-effect cloud and precipitation. Lows will dip to around –2°C with areas under cloud a little bit warmer.

Saturday will be a cool day with a high around 5°C under a mix of sun and cloud. More cloud will push into the Red River Valley late in the afternoon or in the evening as a system diving southwards through Saskatchewan into SW Manitoba spreads some cloud into the Red River Valley. No precipitation is expected at this point for Saturday. Saturday night will be quite cool under partly cloudy skies and lows near –4 or –5°C.

Sunday will bring more cloud into Winnipeg & the Red River Valley as more cool air and instability builds into the Red River Valley. Temperatures will be even cooler than Saturday with highs of only 2–3°C which will make what’s falling out of those clouds more likely to be of the frozen variety than the liquid. Again, not much accumulation is expected, but it may be the first snowfall of the season for many places.

Looking Ahead

We’ll be into a much cooler pattern through the next week with daytime highs sitting near 4 or 5°C through much of the week. It looks like we’ll see a disturbance mid-week bring a chance of showers for most of Southern Manitoba, but nothing in the way of significant (or measurable) accumulations is on the way.