Tag: Showers

Beautiful Start To Fall Continues

Brad Leave a comment

Our beautiful start to fall – a start that has seen two days in a row a full 9–10°C above normal – will continue with well above-normal temperatures continuing through the week. A powerful storm system moving into Saskatchewan will lead to more unsettled weather as we move towards the end of the week, but rain is far from guaranteed here in Winnipeg.

Wednesday

Wednesday

25°C / 16°C
A mix of sun and cloud; windy out of the south.

We’ll see another pleasant but breezy day today under a mix of sun and cloud as some patchy cloud cover moves eastwards from a powerful storm system taking shape over central Saskatchewan. Temperatures should climb to around 25°C this afternoon as gusty winds pick up to 30–40km/h out of the south. The winds will let up a little bit overnight but will still be noticeable which, when combined with increasing cloudiness, will conspire to keep our overnight low around a balmy 16°C – which is coincidentally the average daytime high for this time of year.

Thursday

Total accumulated rain from the GDPS on Thursday 12Z - 00Z.

12 hour rainfall accumluations depicting rainfall during the daytime on Thursday. Under 2mm is forecast by the GDPS for Winnipeg.
Thursday

24°C / 12°C
Cloudy with gradual clearing. Chance of showers midday through the afternoon.

Thursday will bring mostly cloudy skies as the Saskatchewan storm edges eastwards slowly. While showers will push in over Western Manitoba, here in Winnipeg we’ll see just a slight chance of seeing some shower activity. The chance will start midday and last through much of the afternoon, but if we do get any rain it shouldn’t accumulate to anything significant.

The day will start mainly cloudy, but we should see mainly sunny skies by the evening as everything lifts off to the north. Our temperature will climb to around 24°C with winds around 30km/h diminishing through the afternoon. Thursday night will start with mainly clear skies but we’ll see increasing cloudiness by Friday morning as cloud streams in from the southwest ahead of yet another disturbance.

Friday

Friday

18°C / 7°C
Cloudy periods. Very slight risk of a morning shower.

We’ll see some cloudy periods on Friday as another disturbance spreads cloud ahead into Southern Manitoba. Our temperature will be a bit cooler; the daytime high is expected to hit around 18°C as a cold front pushes across the Red River Valley.

Friday night holds some promise of seeing some precipitation, which is rapidly becoming needed in Winnipeg. Only 4mm of rain has fallen in Winnipeg so far this September, not even 10% of the average of 45.5mm that falls in this month. The last significant rainfall in Winnipeg was the heavy thunderstorms that occurred through the morning of Sunday, August 18th which brought 15–30mm to the city. Since then, only 6mm of rain has fallen.

The GDPS is currently the only system that’s bringing rain into Winnipeg on Friday night, however there are some indications that other models could begin to fall in line with that thinking as well. Unfortunately, it’s going to be yet another system that has a very sharp cutoff on it’s edges. This system will be very sensitive to track, so we’ll be sure to keep an eye on things as they develop. Be sure to check back in the comments below for updates closer to the weekend.

Warm Weather Gives Way to Cool Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

Well above-seasonal temperatures will wash over Southern Manitoba today as a powerful low pressure system in the Arctic drags a swath of very warm air eastwards across the Prairies. It won’t be meant to last, though, as a strong ridge of high pressure builds in behind a cold front that pushes through on Saturday, bringing cool Arctic air with it for the weekend.

Friday

25°C / 15°C
Mainly sunny.
Saturday

22°C / 4°C
Cloudy with a good chance of showers or thundershowers, then clearing through the afternoon.
Sunday

19°C / 6°C
Mainly sunny and cool.

We’ll see a breezy wind out of the southwest today as temperatures climb into the mid–20’s thanks to a warm front that pushed through overnight. We might see a little bit of cloud, but for the most part skies should be mainly sunny. Still in the warm sector of this system, we’ll only drop to the mid-teens tonight with some increasing cloudiness towards Saturday morning as the cold front approaches.

Saturday morning will bring a fairly decent chance for some scattered shower activity as the cold front pushes into the Red River Valley from the north. There may be a few thundershowers as well but no significant or widespread thunderstorm activity is expected. Gusty northerly winds will move in behind the cold front – which should be through much of the Red River Valley by midday – with clouds scattering out to a mix or partly cloudy skies. The temperature should be able to climb a degree or two above the 20°C mark, however cold air advection will limit our high very close to that mark.

Skies will clear overnight as we drop down to a very chilly 4°C or so. Areas outside the city of Winnipeg may even see temperatures dip a little cooler than that. We may end up seeing the first frost of the year in some places on Saturday night but I don’t expect a widespread frost to occur.

Sunday will be a sunny but very cool day as the ridge of high pressure dominates the weather pattern over Southern Manitoba. We’ll see temperatures climb to only around 17 or 18°C by late afternoon but at least the winds should be relatively light, picking up out of the south later in the day to only around 15–20km/h. We’ll see an overnight low of around 7°C on Sunday night with clear skies.

Weekend to Bring A Break From The Heat

Brad Leave a comment

Slightly cooler weather will move in this weekend behind a low pressure system forecast to move through tonight and tomorrow. In addition to the cooler temperatures, this system will bring a chance of rain and thunderstorms to the Red River Valley.

Tonight & Tomorrow

Friday

27°C / 18°C
Increasingly cloudy; risk of a thunderstorm late in the afternoon into the evening. Humid.

We’ll see gradually increasing cloud today as the surface trough associated with a low pressure system pushing into the northern Interlake approaches. There may be some ongoing thunderstorm activity along the trough this morning as it pushes through SW Manitoba and that threat will move eastwards into the Red River Valley by the late afternoon or early evening. A southerly wind ahead of the trough coupled with a capping inversion will draw moisture northwards once again and trap it near the surface, making for another hot, sticky day here in Winnipeg. Our high temperature will only climb to around 27 or 28°C, though, thanks to the increasing cloudiness through the day. That hot, humid weather will bring the threat for thunderstorms – potentially severe – late in the afternoon into the evening hours. At this point, it seems like somewhere between 8PM and 11PM seems like the most likely time for seeing any potential storm activity. After that we’ll see our temperature drop to around 18°C under a partly cloudy sky.

Saturday

25°C / 12°C
Becoming cloudy, good chance of showers or thundershowers. Humid again.

Saturday will be another humid day as we remain in the moist air mass ahead of the cold front. We’ll see a fairly good chance of showers or thundershowers beginning later in the morning and through the afternoon. Skies will start off as a mix of sun and cloud but should become fairly cloudy in the afternoon as things become more unstable with the approaching cold front. We’ll see a high of around 25°C which will mark the last day in our hot, muggy air mass. The threat for showers or thunderstorms will persist until the cold front passes.

500mb Winds for Saturday Afternoon

500mb winds forecast by the NAM show an intense upper-level low pushing into Southern Manitoba which may be the catalyst for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and evening.

The cold front will push through overnight, bringing northwesterly winds that will clear out much of the moisture and drop us to a comparatively cool 12°C for an overnight low with clearing skies.

Sunday & Holiday Monday

Sunday

23°C / 8°C
Sunny. Cooler and much less humid.
Monday

25°C / 13°C
Sunny and warm.

Sunday and Labour Day Monday look absolutely beautiful. Sunday will be slightly cool with a high of only around 23°C and lead into a chilly night with a low dropping into the single digits bottoming out around 8°C. The heat starts to return on Monday with sunny skies continuing as we climb to a mild 25°C.

The Trend Next Week

Looking further into the week, it looks fairly nice overall as the upper ridge begins rebounding back northwards into the Prairies. Highs will push back into the upper 20’s with humidity staying fairly low until late in the week. Things look fairly dry through the first half of the week, with a few weak disturbances bringing the threat for isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms late in the week. For the most part, though, it looks to be a beautiful, warm week. Summer may be late, but it doesn’t look like it’s going anywhere soon!

Hot Weather Continues

Brad Leave a comment

The hot weather in place over the Red River Valley will stick around through the rest of the week, although a few more weak disturbances will bring in a little more cloud alongside the risk of a few showers or thunderstorms.

Wednesday

31°C / 18°C
A mix of sun and cloud. Humid.
Thursday

28°C / 18°C
A mix of sun and cloud. Humid. Slight chance a shower or thunderstorm.
Friday

27°C / 17°C
Mainly sunny. Chance showers or thunderstorms Friday night.

Today

We’ll see another hot and humid day today as temperatures climb into the low 30’s again with dew points hovering around 19–20°C. No precipitation is expected although we’ll see a mix of sun and cloud associated with a weak frontal system that wills be in the area.

Thursday

Tomorrow will be an interesting day; at this point it looks like we’ll see a fair amount of cloud in the morning before clearing out for the afternoon as an area of showers and thunderstorms moves across North Dakota and perhaps portions of the southern Red River Valley. Should this system push further north, there would be a slight chance of showers in the morning here in Winnipeg, but at this point I think that we’ll stay dry. Things will be pleasant in the afternoon as we climb to a high around 28°C before a weak upper-level cold front pushes into the Red River Valley. As it sweeps through in the evening, there will be a chance of some showers or thunderstorms pushing into the Red River Valley alongside it. Most regions in the RRV will see a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the evening and overnight hours. Things will move out overnight as we drop to a low around 18°C.

Friday

Friday will be a beautiful day with mainly sunny skies and a high around 27°C. The humidity will drop off through the day as we heat up and are able to mix some of the remaining moisture near the surface out. There’s little threat of precipitation until the evening and overnight hours as low-pressure system pushes into Southern Manitoba, where thunderstorms will be possible with this system along a trough that will push through the Red River Valley. Depending on how things set up, there may be a slight risk of a severe thunderstorm with this system, so we’ll be sure to keep an eye on how things are setting up.

The Long Weekend

A preliminary look ahead through the long weekend looks beautiful. Skies should clear on Saturday morning and after that, it looks like nothing but sun, sun and more sun all the way through Monday. Highs look to be in the mid-to-upper 20’s, generally between 25–28°C with overnight lows dipping down to around the 12–13°C mark thanks to significantly less humidity in the air mass behind Friday night’s low pressure system.