We’ll move into a slightly quieter pattern after a low pressure disturbance moves through central Manitoba. This system is currently moving through western Saskatchewan and will produce a dangerous outbreak of severe thunderstorms along the Highway 11 corridor between Saskatoon and Regina today with torrential rain, hail possibly bigger than baseballs and a very real threat for an isolated tornado or two. The severe weather threat will be mostly confined to Saskatchewan today unlike Saturday when the substantial severe storm threat was expected to push into SW Manitoba.

Today & Tonight

Monday

30°C
Clearing then mainly sunny.

Monday Night

20°C
Cloudy periods with a chance of showers.

We’ll see a beautiful day toaday in the Red River Valley with sunny skies dominating after a few isolated showers move out of the area this morning. We’ll see temperatures climb to around 30°C this afternoon before some clouds move in in the evening ahead of the storms moving out of Saskatchewan. There will be a slight chance of showers tonight through the Red River Valley along the tail end of a thunderstorm complex that will be moving through the Interlake. As the low pushes across central Manitoba, the Red River Valley will move into the warm sector of this system, bringing much warmer, more humid air into the region. Thanks to this, we’ll see overnight lows quite a bit warmer than the past couple nights. We’ll eventually drop to around 20°C with noticable humidity.

Severe thunderstorms will move into western Manitoba this evening along a dryline pushing eastwards out of Saskatchewan. Storms are expected to stay well north of the Trans-Canada Highway, moving more through the Dauphin & Minnedosa areas then pushing eastwards into the Interlake overnight as an MCS capable of producing large hail and strong damaging winds. The storms will have trouble moving southwards thanks to a layer of dry air in place over the Red River Valley that will likely either kill or substantially weaken any weather that tries to push our way.

Tuesday & Wednesday

Tuesday

27°C / 15°C
Clearing then mainly sunny.

Wednesday

27°C / 15°C
Sunny with cloudy periods.

We’ll see more stable weather for Tuesday & Wednesday as a surface ridge begins working it’s way into the province. A fairly light northwesterly wind will kick in on Tuesday morning which will slowly push out much of the humidity in place over us making this feel quite a bit more comfortable outside. Wednesday will bring more sun than cloud with daytime highs pretty much the same as Tuesday. There will be a slight chance of light showers near the International Border through the period but no significant accumulations are expected.

Unsettled weather will mark the start of the week as multiple disturbances move through Southern Manitoba in quick succession. A weak trough will push across the Red River Valley late this afternoon and through the early evening associated with a low pressure system moving through Northern Manitoba. That will quickly be followed up by a disturbance moving out of North Dakota through Southern Manitoba as well.

Today

Monday

28°C
Mainly sunny.

Monday Night

18°C
Increasing cloud. Rain with thunderstorms likely overnight.

Most of the day will be pleasant today as mainly sunny skies dominate and the temperature climbs to around 28°C. Clouds will develop a little later in the day as the trough line approaches and we’ll see a slight risk of a thunderstorm in the evening. At the same time as our slight risk of a thunderstorm, a more organized area of thunderstorms will be developing in North Dakota supported by an upper-level disturbance. This area of storms looks to expand into an area of rain with a few embedded thunderstorms as it moves northeastwards into Southern Manitoba and will likely bring rain with a decent chance of some storms through the overnight period to the Red River Valley. The rain could be quite heavy at times, with accumulations potentially reaching the 2” (50mm) mark. There’s still a little disagreement in the models regarding the development of this system, so we’ll be sure to keep an eye out in case it looks like this rain won’t develop. With how things look now, it seems likely that the rain would reach Winnipeg late overnight and move off by mid-day on Tuesday.

Tuesday

Tuesday

23°C / 13°C
Showers tapering off by the afternoon then clearing.

We’ll see a cloudy start to the day with showers likely as long as the convection in North Dakota develops as expected. They could still be quite heavy at times in the morning, so we’ll probably be off to a very wet start to the day. Things should taper off as the main support for the rain pushes into Northern Ontario by the early afternoon hours and then we’ll see sunshine work it’s way out. A few hours of afternoon sunshine should help push our temperature up to around 23°C by late afternoon. On Tuesday night we’ll see mainly clear skies with temperatures dipping to 13°C as we move into a slightly cooler air mass.

Wednesday

Wednesday

28°C / 15°C
Sunny.

Wednesday will mark the turnaround back into a hot weather regime. Sunny skies will dominate as we climb to a high of 28°C with fairly light winds. The sunny, warm weather will be thanks to a upper-level ridge building into the Prairies. We’ll drop to a low around 15°C on Wednesday night under clear skies.

Rest of the Week

The rest of the week will be increasingly hot as a southerly flow redevelops over the eastern Prairies and begins bringing Gulf moisture northwards into the region again. This will be marked by daytime highs near 30°C and increasingly humid air building into the Red River Valley. We’ll have more details on Wednesday, but at this point it looks like the second half of the week and the weekend will be marked by hot, humid sunny weather with a low risk of seeing any stormy weather.