A large-scale pattern shift begins today that will bring warmer weather back to the region, but alongside the reprieve from the unseasonably cool temperatures comes a shift towards several days of unsettled weather.

Today will be a quiet day across the Red River Valley with sunny skies and a high near 15°C. Winds will be light as a ridge of high pressure moves across the region. Tonight will also bring fairly clear skies and a low near 4°C.

Warmer air will begin working into the region on Saturday, bringing with it partly cloudy skies as temperatures climb to a high near 19°C. Winds will pick up out of the east to around 30 km/h as a warm front sets up along the US border. Skies will remain partly cloudy overnight as temperatures dip to a low near 9°C with continued easterly winds at 20-30 km/h.

Sunday will be the turning point for Winnipeg as the first disturbance moves through the region. Winds will continue out of the southeast near 30 km/h until a cold front moves through sometime mid-day into the afternoon. This cold front will support an area of showers or thunderstorms as it moves through the region. As the front moves across southern Manitoba, skies will cloud up as temperatures climb to a high near 20°C.

Once the front passes, temperatures will cool a bit as the winds taper off. Expect a low near 6°C on Sunday night with partly cloudy skies.

Long Range

The forecast through the first half of next week shows several disturbances moving through the region, however exactly where and how much rain falls with them is still very uncertain.

Expect plenty of cloud, particularly into the middle of the week. Temperatures will be mild both Monday and Tuesday, however a brief cool-down will likely happen mid-week with highs dropping into the low teens.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 19°C while the seasonal overnight low is 5°C.

Unsettled Monday, Then A Return to Calmer Conditions

Today will be rather unsettled across the Red River Valley as a trough of low pressure moving through the regions supports scattered showers and thunderstorms. After it passes, though, an omega block begins to develop, bringing more settled weather to the region.

Today’s main weather will be two rounds of showers that move through the Red River Valley. The first round will be early this morning, a continuation of showers and thunderstorms that developed in Saskatchewan last night and have pushed eastwards overnight. There is a chance we’ll also see some embedded thunderstorms with this band as it moves through. General morning rainfall will be around 5-10mm in many areas, but due to the convective nature of the precipitation there will be significant variability, with some areas potentially seeing nothing and others seeing higher amounts.

The second wave of showers will develop in the afternoon as a second low pressure centre moves through the region. This band will likely be more focused that the morning activity and primarily impact areas south of the bulk of the morning activity.

Aside from the rain, conditions will be fairly cloudy, although there may be an odd sunny break between the two batches of showers. Temperatures will be mild with a high near 19°C, but winds will be breezy out of the southeast at around 30 km/h. Temperatures will dip down to around 8°C tonight with clearing skies and winds flipping around to the northwest at 10-20 km/h.

Tuesday and Wednesday with both be much sunnier days with north to northwesterly winds. Tuesday will bring a high near 18 or 19°C with temperatures then dropping to a low near 7°C. Wednesday has quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the daytime high. The developing omega block will be pumping warmth across the western Prairies towards Manitoba, but an upper-level low will be moving westwards from Eastern Canada, pushing cooler temperatures into Manitoba from the east and northeast.

This will create a fairly sharp temperature difference somewhere across the southern part of the province, and with a relatively quick change from 19-20°C in the warm air to around 5°C in the cold air. Winnipeg looks to lie in the middle of this zone, with a high likely near 14°C, but a minor shift of this boundary to the north or south would substantially change the expected high temperature.

Long Range

The weather will continue fairly quiet through the remainder of the week with the cooler temperatures mid-week giving way to highs back near 19-20°C for Winnipeg by Friday. The weekend looks mild, but a chance for showers returns to the region on Sunday.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 18°C while the seasonal overnight low is 4°C.