Tag: Showers

Spring Arrives in the Red River Valley

Brad Leave a comment

There will be no mistaking it this week: spring has arrived!

Temperatures will remain above normal through the coming week as a westerly flow aloft continues to spread mild Pacific air eastwards across the Prairies. With a rapidly eroding snow pack in the Red River Valley, it will also become easier and easier to reach warmer temperatures as the surface albedo decreases.1

It won’t all be sunshine, however. Today’s weather will be driven by a weak mid-level disturbance rolling through. It will bring fairly cloudy conditions through much of the day and a chance of rain or freezing rain in the morning.2 Winds will remain fairly light as temperatures climb to a high near 5 or 6°C. Clouds will remain fairly cloudy tonight as well with temperatures dropping to a low near -2°C.

The RDPS model shows a narrow band of showers over the Red River Valley this morning.

Tuesday will be a bit nicer, with some of the cloud breaking up to give a mix of sun and cloud to Winnipeg. Temperatures will climb to a high near 8 or 9°C with light northeasterly winds. Temperatures will drop to a low near 0°C under mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday night. There will be a slight chance of some rain overnight as a warm front pushes through, but that will depend on whether or not it ends up strong enough to support any showers.

Wednesday will bring some more cloud to the region, but temperatures will climb to a high near 10 or 11°C. Winds will be out of the south near 20 km/h. Skies will break up a bit overnight with temperatures dropping to a low near 2°C.

Long Range

Temperatures will continue to be mild with daytime highs near the 10°C mark throughout the remainder of the week and into the weekend. There will be a few chances for some showers throughout the second half of the week and into the weekend, but they seem to mainly be during nighttime. For the most part, it looks like beautiful weather ahead.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 3°C while the seasonal overnight low is -7°C.

  1. Albedo is a measurement of how much energy a surface reflects instead of absorbs. Snow has a very high albedo—up to 85-90%—which means a majority of energy from the sun is reflected back upwards. Bare ground only reflects around 10-15% of the incoming energy, absorbing the other 85%. This allows temperatures to climb much higher over bare ground compared to snow-covered ground. ↩
  2. What the precipitation falls as will depend precisely on the surface temperature at the time. ↩

Friday’s Disturbance Leads To Cooler Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will push into Winnipeg & the Red River Valley this weekend behind a low pressure system that will bring rain to portions of Southern Manitoba on Friday.

Today will bring a low pressure system, talked about in Wednesday’s forecast, through the province. In that post, we discussed how there was uncertainty in the track of the low, and that it seemed like much of the rain associated with it would fall across the Interlake. With the system imminent now, it’s become readily apparent that it will indeed primarily affect areas to the north of Winnipeg, at least for much of the day today.

Today will be a cloudy one across Winnipeg & the Red River Valley with light winds and temperatures climbing to a high near 12°C. Late this afternoon, winds will pick up out of the northwest to around 30 km/h, bringing with them a chance of some rain as a cold front sweeps southwards across the province. No significant accumulations are expected in Winnipeg, unlike the further north where 15-25 mm are possible along a west-east line running from Swan River eastwards across the Northern Interlake and Berens River.

With the gusty northerly winds and light showers tonight will come dropping temperatures. Lows should sit near 2°C tonight with winds tapering off towards Saturday morning. With the cooler temperatures and northwesterly winds, there may also be more persistent shower activity in the lee of Lakes Manitoba & Winnipeg as a result of weak lake-effect precipitation.

Light shower activity is expected across Southern Manitoba on Friday night.
Light shower activity is expected across Southern Manitoba on Friday night.

Saturday will be a mainly cloudy day with light winds and a much cooler, more seasonal high near 6°C. Expect continued cloud cover on Saturday night with lows near 1°C.

Sunday will start off cloudy but will likely bring an occasional sunny break in the afternoon. Temperatures will continue seasonal with a high near 8 or 9°C, but the wind will be more noticeable as it picks up out of the south to around 30 km/h once again. There’s a slight chance that it could end up even slightly windier than that, with sustained winds near 40 km/h, but at this point guidance suggests winds will be closer to the 30 km/h mark.

Expect a low on Sunday night near 5°C under partly cloudy skies.

Long Range

Guidance continues to be fairly consistent in a low pressure system moving through the province on Monday that will bring a soaking rain to much of Southern Manitoba. It’s a bit early for exact numbers, but general amounts 10-25 mm have been consistently produced by guidance over the past several days. After that system moves through, an upper ridge will build into the southern Prairies and…

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid November 4, 2016 to November 11, 2016
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid November 4, 2016 to November 11, 2016

Dry weather with an extremely high likelihood of above-seasonal temperatures will be on the way for Southern Manitoba, alongside much of North America, through the second half of next week. So hang tight, it looks like we have some beautiful November weather ahead!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 6°C while the seasonal overnight low is -4°C.

Cloudy, But Mild

Scott Leave a comment

This week will start out on the grey side, with more clouds than sun on most days. However, temperatures will remain mild with values at or above seasonal norms.

Mild but cloudy conditions are expected in southern Manitoba today.
Mild but cloudy conditions are expected in southern Manitoba today.

This Week

Today will be a fairly typical late October day in southern Manitoba. Skies will remain mainly cloudy in most areas as a low cloud deck remains suck along the eastern edge of a surface ridge. Temperatures will be near seasonal values, with highs in the mid to upper single digits. Winds will be light from the east. There is a slight chance of a shower or flurry, but not significant accumulations are expected.

Tuesday will see temperatures warm slightly over today, but skies will remain grey. An approaching system will ensure continued cloudiness over southern Manitoba, but a stiff southeasterly flow will allow temperatures to climb up near 10C in most areas. That southeasterly flow will be gusting up to 50 km/h by the afternoon, making these slightly-above seasonal temperatures seem a bit chilly. Shower activity is possible during the day, with a better chance of rain Tuesday night into Wednesday as that system moves closer.

Wednesday will remain mainly cloudy with a continued chance of showers as a weak low pressure system slowly passes by. Temperatures will remain mild, near 10C, with gusty south winds of 20-30 km/h.

Long Range

Long range models show generally seasonal to above-seasonal temperatures as we move through the end of October. Our normal high for this time of year is 7C, suggesting that temperatures in the upper single digits or low double digits will be most common through month’s end. These warm conditions will likely spill into early November, but it remains to be seen whether or not November will see an early start to winter, or if we’ll have to wait a bit longer for the white stuff to come for good.

Cloudy & Cool Days Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg will be stuck in a fairly cloudy and cool second half to the work week as a broad upper-level trough remains entrenched over the region.

Cool & Relatively Dreary

While this morning may bring a few smiles with some sunshine, more cloud will quickly be moving back into Winnipeg, turning skies grey and leaving cool, fall-like weather in the wake. By early this afternoon, skies should be completely clouded up once again with temperatures topping out near 6°C. Winds will be out of the west-northwest at around 20-25 km/h with some gusts in the 30-40 km/h range.

Skies will remain fairly cloudy overnight with northwesterly winds continuing and temperatures dipping down to around 1°C.

Thursday morning will bring more cloudy skies with a slight chance of some shower or flurry activity as a weak band of lake-effect precipitation moves off of Lake Manitoba. It should dissipate by midday, and we’ll be left with cloudy skies that gradually begin to break up late in the afternoon, calm winds, and a high near 7°C.

Thursday night will bring a low once again near 1°C under partly cloudy skies.

Showers Possible Friday

A warm front moving across the Prairies on Friday will bring the chance of showers to the region alongside a shift to a warmer weather pattern.

A warm front will push eastwards across the Red River Valley on Friday.
A warm front will push eastwards across the Red River Valley on Friday.

By midday the chance for showers move into Winnipeg with winds picking up out of the south to 30-40 km/h. It doesn’t look like rainfall totals will be much to speak of (less than 2mm), but there may be just enough to make the ground wet.

The warmest air will remain to our south, however, so daytime highs will sit near 9°C. Friday night will bring a low near 2°C under partly cloudy skies.

Long Range

The weekend is looking slightly warmer with highs near 10°C and overnight lows continuing in the 1-2°C range. Skies will likely be mixed through the weekend and there may be another chance for some light shower activity on Saturday afternoon.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 9°C while the seasonal overnight low is -2°C.