Springtime Low to Bring Cooler Weather This Weekend

A low pressure system tracking through western and central Manitoba will bring unsettled weather, cooler temperatures and windy conditions to the Red River Valley this weekend…but not before one more beautiful day.

Forecast surface temperatures

Forecast surface temperatures for mid-afternoon today.

Conditions will be fairly uniform across the Red River Valley today with plenty of sunshine, highs near 20°C and a stiff southerly wind blowing at 40 to 50km/h. It’s a fitting end to another simply beautiful, and above normal with regards to the temperature, week. Tonight, a low pressure system will eject out of southeast Saskatchewan across Parkland Manitoba and into the Interlake. Associated with this low is a very strong 40kt low-level jet (LLJ), however a lack of moisture and unimpressive mid-level lapse rates should erase any concerns (or hopes) of nocturnal convection.

A cold front will sweep across the Red River Valley on Saturday morning, bringing a chance of showers to most regions; indications are that areas east of the Red River will see a greater chance of a shower or two than areas west. After the passage of the cold front, the entire RRV will be left with a fairly strong westerly wind and cloudy skies.

Accumulated Precipitation

Total accumulated precipitation from 00Z Friday to 00Z Monday. This shows the relative lack of precipitation over SW Manitoba and the RRV; a stark contrast to the copious amounts of precipitation that are forecast over Eastern Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba.

The wrap-around precipitation will begin to move into the RRV on Saturday night, coincident with colder air diving southwards on the backside of the low. Current indications are that the precipitation will fall as snow and that the northern half of the RRV has a much greater chance of seeing flurries than the southern half. The low continues to lift NE through the day Sunday, pulling the wrap-around northwards with it and out of the RRV. It will be a struggle between the main area of lift pulling north and remnant moisture and instability in the cooler air left in the RRV. Most areas in the RRV will likely see a little bit of snow on Sunday, however the only areas that might accumulate a cm or two would be north of Morris.

All in all, we’re being spared with this system, as large amounts of precipitation are forecast from the Moose Jaw/Regina, SK region along a line NE to Swan River and The Pas. The GEMGLB is currently painting up to 75mm of precipitation, which if that were to all fall as snow would likely end up as 1-2 feet of the white stuff. We’ll see how much actually falls, though, as the GEMGLB can have problems with convective feedback in situations where embedded elevated convection is a possibility along a warm front. Anyone planning to travel to Saskatchewan today or on the weekend should make sure they check road conditions and weather forecasts for cities/towns along their route before they leave.

After that things clear out for the start of next week and our temperatures rebound back into the low teens by midweek. Things are looking like we’ll have continued sun and warm temperatures into next weekend as well.

Unsettled March Weather Continues

Southern Manitoba played host to almost all the different kinds of weather out there, with many locations seeing almost any combination of thunderstorms, hail, rain, drizzle, snow and blowing snow. A system that brought heavy snowfall to Western Manitoba and the Interlake region as well as thunderstorms and rain to the Red River Valley and Southeast Manitoba has trundled off into Ontario; we’re not out of the woods yet, though, as another system is set to quickly make it’s way into the province by tomorrow morning.

Hail Accumulation

Photo of accumulated small hail at a downspout exit. Winnipeg was hit with hail from this size up to as large as dimes as a thunderstorm pushed through the city at around 2:30AM on Tuesday morning.

For today, we’ll see cloudy skies with a chance of a few remnant flurries this morning. We’ll see a daytime highs of only 2°C or 3°C through the RRV. Another low pressure system is already on it’s way to Manitoba, however, with the parent upper trough making landfall on the Oregon coast last night. This trough will advect eastwards and rotate northwards into the Central Prairies, bringing with it a warm front that will bisect the Prairies and slowly push eastwards.

This warm front is expected to push through the Winnipeg and the Red River Valley through the day on Thursday. Current indications are that we’ll be far enough south that we won’t have to worry about snow, that should be reserved for areas a bit further north in the Interlake region. We’ll see rain push in tomorrow morning around mid-morning and clear out by early evening. Rainfall totals currently look to be fairly uniform through the Red River Valley with totals around 10-15mm, however it does look like there’s a good chance for some enhanced convective areas which will result in fairly heavy showers interspersed through the general area of rain.We’ll enjoy warmer temperatures through the rest of the week, with the warm air pushing through bringing our daytime highs up to around 10°C.

We’re not out of the woods quite yet, though, as another low is forecast to track through the southern Interlake region bringing rain to areas along and north of the Trans-Canada Highway Friday night and Saturday morning. Current indications are that regions south of the Trans-Canada Highway will only see some scattered showers with this system.

8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook, valid for April 4 – April 11.

With a the passage of Tuesday’s weather system, North America has transitioned into a much different weather pattern that that which brought us our record-busting heat wave. With the blocking high collapsed over the SE United States, the summer-like heat will be contained further south in the Central and Southern Plains of the United States. Fortunately, the bitterly cold Arctic air that’s still omnipresent north of 60 will remain bottled up. So what does that mean for us? As the image above shows, ensemble forecasts are showing a moderate chance of above normal temperatures, however nothing nearly as certain as what was being predicted a couple weeks ago. The long-wave pattern has shifted to favor more frequent disturbances tracking through the Prairies, which should result in temperatures that may still be slightly above normal, but we’ll likely also see more precipitation than we had through much of March.

Spring at the Gates

After the blast of winter Winnipeg and the rest of Southern Manitoba recieved last week where some regions recieved upwards of 7” of snow, spring has begun its march towards Southern Manitoba. After a cooler day today, we’ll see temperatures climb into the low single digits for the rest of the week. Some weather models show suprising heat building into the province, so the big question is: just how warm is it going to get?

12hr. QPF w/Surface Analysis

GEM-REG model image valid 12Z Thursday morning. Shaded areas are 12hr. precipitation accumulation. Red lines represent warm fronts and dark blue lines represent the cold front.

Southern Manitoba will start today on the cold side of a baroclinic zone that carves across Central Saskatchewan into North Dakota. This will limit our temperatures into the low minus single digits with daytime highs through the Red River Valley reaching only -7 or -8°C with a light northwest wind.

Winds will veer to the southwest in the evening as a low pressure system track through the Central Prairies drags a warm front across Southern Manitoba. This front will have a few scattered flurries associated with it, but accumulations should be only from a skiff to a cm. After the front passes overnight, temperatures will be on the up and up for the forseeable future.

On Thursday, we should see temperatures climb to around -4°C through the RRV under sunny skies. Thursday night temperatures will drop to between -15 and -20°C on the last cold night for a while. On Friday, temperatures will climb above zero and stay there through the night as temperatures are sustained by a southerly wind supplied by a powerful low pressure system tracking along the 60th parallel. Warm temperatures combined with a south-east wind will likely result in fairly cloudy skies as moisture from the melting snow is trapped underneath all the warm air aloft.

In the long term, models continue to pump warm air over Southern Manitoba. Warm temperatures will be the name of the game as low after low tracks across the northern Prairies. Little precipitation is in the forecast over the next 10 days, and the real question is just how warm will it get? High temperatures will be highly dependent on snow cover and, thus, difficult to accurately forecast. We’ll have to see just exactly how quickly the snow cover is eroded to get a better handle on high temperatures next week.

When a substantial snowpack is in place, daytime temperatures can have extreme difficulty rising much above 0°C regardless of the temperatures even a couple hundred feet off the ground. In Winnipeg, temperatures will often top out at 2 or 3°C under light or southerly winds. Under a westerly or south-west wind, temperatures can reach as high as 6 or 7°C, even with a snowpack.

The GFS currently has all the snow melting over the RRV by the middle of next week, and subsequently is able to pump up daytime highs as high as 16°C. This seems somewhat unrealistic, given how the snowpack was substantially reinforced at the end of last week.

Snow Tapering Off Today

Today’s post will be short as I’m occupied with some family-related business.

Moderate snow pushed into the Red River Valley yesterday evening, bringing reduced visibilities and slippery conditions. Snow will continue through much of the day before tapering off.

Accumulated Precipitation From 00Z Friday to 00Z Saturday

GEM-GLB Accumulated precipitation from 00Z Friday to 00Z Saturday

Snowfall accumulations will generally be close to 5cm, however there will be a swath near the Trans-Canada highway between Brandon and Winnipeg that will likely see total amounts in the 5-10cm range. Snow should taper off by evening, and we’ll see an overnight lows throughout the RRV around -15°C.

Over the weekend, we’ll see mostly sunny skies with daytime highs near between -10° and -5°C, with overnight lows between -20°C and -15°C. The next chance for precipitation will come Monday with a passage of a warm front that will push our temperature up into the plus mid-single digits.