Tag: Snow

Seasonal Spring Weekend Ahead

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After Wednesday’s winter reminder, typical spring weather will return to the region for the region. A potential major spring storm looms next week.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday April 10, 2022
Mild spring temperatures are likely across southern Manitoba on Sunday.

The main weather feature today will be a ridge of high pressure moving over the region. It will bring an end to the strong northerly winds seen the past few days with sunny skies today.

The ridge will shift off to the east on Saturday with a stronger low developing behind it in the western Prairies. This will spread some cloud cover into the region with strengthening southerly winds. As this low crosses the Prairies, it will bring seasonal highs and slightly mild lows to the Winnipeg area.

On Sunday, cloudy skies will likely give way to some late-day showers as a trough of low pressure moves into the region. Sunday has the potential to produce slightly speedier snow melt as warmer weather arrives dew point temperatures climb above freezing through the day. The Winnipeg area could see daytime highs close to 10 °C despite the cloudy skies.

Most of the rain showers will lift out of the Dakotas and push northeastwards across the region. There is some uncertainty with the track right now and Winnipeg may end up missing out on the rain if things shift eastwards slightly.

Long Range Outlook

Monday and Tuesday will bring pleasant spring weather to the region. Through the second half of next week, however, the potential for a significant storm is brewing.

Most weather models have a potent Colorado Low forming on Tuesday that moves into Minnesota by Thursday evening. As it moves northeast, forecasts show large area of moderate to heavy precipitation. The moisture for this would be fed by extensive thunderstorm activity along the system’s frontal wave in the southeast flank. There is still notable uncertainty, but indications are that it’s highly likely southern Manitoba will be impacted by this storm.

ECMWF 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 06Z Friday April 15, 2022
The ECMWF places Manitoba’s Red River Valley under the heaviest axis of precipitation from this storm system.
GFS 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 06Z Thursday April 14, 2022
The GFS model produces notable precipitation over the Red River Valley, but over a smaller area and brings the system through earlier and faster.
GDPS 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 00Z Friday April 14, 2022
The Canadian GDPS model has a solution between the GFS and ECMWF: a bit slower than one with a precipitation envelope that looks closer to the other.

This would likely take the form of an initial wave of snow or mixed precipitation on Wednesday, followed by moderate to heavy snow on Thursday. In this situation, all the precipitation would taper off for Friday. In this outcome, the region would see significant snowfall with at least 10–20 cm of heavy snow likely.

Some other models keep the system a bit weaker and more progressive; in those cases, the region would see significantly less precipitation with impact over a shorter period of time.

Be ready for the chance of a large spring storm in the future; we’ll be keeping an eye on the forecasts as they develop and have more details early next week!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 8 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -4 °C.

Unsettled Weather Moving In

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Winnipeg will see several days of cloudy, unsettled conditions as an upper low moves through the region.

RPDS 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 12Z Wednesday April 6, 2022
The Canadian weather models keep all of today’s rain south of Winnipeg.

An upper low moving across the Prairies will drive the weather in the Red River Valley over the coming days. It will support a complex of low pressure systems that amalgamate into a larger single low that stalls out over NW Ontario. As this evolution of the system occurs, it will bring several waves of precipitation to the Winnipeg area.

The first wave of precipitation will move into the region today. Rain will spread northwards out of the Dakotas midday into the Red River Valley and last through the afternoon.

How far north the rain pushes will be a bit of question. It looks likely that much of it will remain just south of Winnipeg, but a brief period of rain is certainly possible through the early afternoon. Some snow will likely mix in with the rain in the evening with periods of a wintery mix lasting through the night. The precipitation will ease on Wednesday morning.

More rain will push in from the east in the afternoon. This wave of precipitation will affect the entire Red River Valley this time, Winnipeg included. The rain should become mixed with snow late in the day, then change over completely to snow overnight. A few flurries will taper off on Thursday morning, but skies will likely stay cloudy through much of the day.

RDPS 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 18Z Thursday April 7, 2022
A mix of rain and snow will fall across much of south-central and southeastern Manitoba Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Daytime highs over the next few days will hover around 3 or 4 °C with temperatures back to around freezing overnight. The wind will be quite noticeable over the coming days, though, making for chilly conditions. Moderate easterly winds will shift north overnight, then pick up to strong northwesterlies later Wednesday. These strong northwest winds of 40–50 km/h will persist through Thursday. The wind will finally begin to ease on Thursday night into Friday.

The week will end strong with a high in the 5–10 °C range and more sunshine. Temperatures will dip below freezing both Thursday night and Friday night.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will climb back above seasonal values on Saturday with a high near 10 °C. More cloud will move into the area ahead of another major low pressure system crossing the Prairies.

This system may bring some more precipitation to the region Sunday into next week, but there’s quite a bit of uncertainty at this point. Either way, a few days of seasonably warm weather and mixed to cloudier skies will start off the new week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 7 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -5 °C.

Spring Melt Continues Across Southern Manitoba, Cooler Weekend Ahead

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Southern Manitoba will see the spring melt continue for a few more days, but cooler conditions are on the way for the weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Wednesday March 23, 2022
A low pressure system moving through the northern Prairies will bring very mild temperatures to the snow-free portions of the southern Prairies on Wednesday.

Mainly cloudy skies will linger behind the system exiting the region today as the moisture added to the air by the recent rain and melting snow keep things damp. A few sunny breaks will be possible over the next couple days, but organized clearing won’t arrive until Wednesday evening.

The region will see freeze-thaw cycles over the coming days with highs several degrees above freezing and lows below. This will further the — quite honestly, shocking in its rapidity — deterioration of Winnipeg roadways. If you value your tires, avoid those potholes!

Fog patches will also be possible overnight through the next several nights.

Some clearing will move into the region mid-week, but more cloud will arrive later on Thursday as another low pressure system crosses the northern Prairies. Thursday will be the warmest day over the next few with a high climbing above 5 °C, but a cold front will sweep through on Thursday night. It will usher in moderate northwesterly winds along with some more rain showers or flurries Thursday night into early Friday morning.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Friday March 25, 2022
By Friday morning, colder temperatures will return to the province with a moderate northwest wind across Manitoba.

Once that system exits the northern Prairies, a lobe of the Polar Vortex will shift southwards into southern Nunavut. As it does so, cooler air will also push into the Prairies. This won’t result in any sort of deep freeze, but highs will dip down below zero for the weekend.

Long Range Outlook

The spring melt will resume next week as highs climb back up above freezing again. It’s likely that the region will see a lot more cloud as the pattern turns more unstable again, and more rain or snow may be possible in the first half of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 1 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -9 °C.

Warmer Weather Moves Into Southern Manitoba

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Springtime is on the way to southern Manitoba, but will also bring a wintry mix of precipitation on Tuesday evening.

RDPS Forecast Precipitation Type valid 06Z Wednesday March 16, 2022
A mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow will move east across southern Manitoba on Tuesday night.

The the polar vortex retreating into the High Arctic, milder Pacific air has begun to flood across the Prairies. Temperatures climbed above freezing across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan yesterday, and will continue into southern Manitoba today.

Temperatures will warm across southern Manitoba today, but the snowpack will limit highs to within a couple degrees above freezing. An approaching low pressure system will provide more cloud to the region today, followed by precipitation this evening.

Southern Manitoba will see a wintery mix of precipitation tonight. Rain is likely along and south of the Trans-Canada Highway corridor. North of that, freezing rain will fall through the Parkland and southern Interlake areas. And north of that, snow will cross through Swan River and the northern Interlake. Precipitation types will also mix along the boundaries, making for a bit of a mess in some areas.

In Winnipeg, 3–5 mm of rain seems most likely. When combined with the above-zero temperatures, this will work towards beginning to chip away at the snowpack in the area.

The precipitation will move out of the region early Wednesday, leaving behind cloudy skies, light winds, and temperatures hovering a degree or two above freezing. A cool front will sweep through on Wednesday evening bringing a few flurries to the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday March 17, 2022
Temperatures will struggle to climb much above 0 °C over the deep snowpack over the south-central and southeastern Prairies.

Mixed to cloudy skies will stick around for the rest of the work week. Daytime highs will climb a couple degrees above freezing while overnight lows dip below.

Long Range Outlook

Warm weather will continue through the weekend with highs above freezing and variable cloudiness. This week should provide conditions favourable for a gradual snowmelt with dew point temperatures largely staying below the freezing mark and temperatures largely hovering just a bit above freezing.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -1 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -11 °C.