Southern Manitoba will see the spring melt continue for a few more days, but cooler conditions are on the way for the weekend.
A low pressure system moving through the northern Prairies will bring very mild temperatures to the snow-free portions of the southern Prairies on Wednesday.
Mainly cloudy skies will linger behind the system exiting the region today as the moisture added to the air by the recent rain and melting snow keep things damp. A few sunny breaks will be possible over the next couple days, but organized clearing won’t arrive until Wednesday evening.
The region will see freeze-thaw cycles over the coming days with highs several degrees above freezing and lows below. This will further the — quite honestly, shocking in its rapidity — deterioration of Winnipeg roadways. If you value your tires, avoid those potholes!
Fog patches will also be possible overnight through the next several nights.
Some clearing will move into the region mid-week, but more cloud will arrive later on Thursday as another low pressure system crosses the northern Prairies. Thursday will be the warmest day over the next few with a high climbing above 5 °C, but a cold front will sweep through on Thursday night. It will usher in moderate northwesterly winds along with some more rain showers or flurries Thursday night into early Friday morning.
By Friday morning, colder temperatures will return to the province with a moderate northwest wind across Manitoba.
Once that system exits the northern Prairies, a lobe of the Polar Vortex will shift southwards into southern Nunavut. As it does so, cooler air will also push into the Prairies. This won’t result in any sort of deep freeze, but highs will dip down below zero for the weekend.
Long Range Outlook
The spring melt will resume next week as highs climb back up above freezing again. It’s likely that the region will see a lot more cloud as the pattern turns more unstable again, and more rain or snow may be possible in the first half of the week.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 1 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -9 °C.
Springtime is on the way to southern Manitoba, but will also bring a wintry mix of precipitation on Tuesday evening.
A mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow will move east across southern Manitoba on Tuesday night.
The the polar vortex retreating into the High Arctic, milder Pacific air has begun to flood across the Prairies. Temperatures climbed above freezing across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan yesterday, and will continue into southern Manitoba today.
Temperatures will warm across southern Manitoba today, but the snowpack will limit highs to within a couple degrees above freezing. An approaching low pressure system will provide more cloud to the region today, followed by precipitation this evening.
Southern Manitoba will see a wintery mix of precipitation tonight. Rain is likely along and south of the Trans-Canada Highway corridor. North of that, freezing rain will fall through the Parkland and southern Interlake areas. And north of that, snow will cross through Swan River and the northern Interlake. Precipitation types will also mix along the boundaries, making for a bit of a mess in some areas.
In Winnipeg, 3–5 mm of rain seems most likely. When combined with the above-zero temperatures, this will work towards beginning to chip away at the snowpack in the area.
The precipitation will move out of the region early Wednesday, leaving behind cloudy skies, light winds, and temperatures hovering a degree or two above freezing. A cool front will sweep through on Wednesday evening bringing a few flurries to the region.
Temperatures will struggle to climb much above 0 °C over the deep snowpack over the south-central and southeastern Prairies.
Mixed to cloudy skies will stick around for the rest of the work week. Daytime highs will climb a couple degrees above freezing while overnight lows dip below.
Long Range Outlook
Warm weather will continue through the weekend with highs above freezing and variable cloudiness. This week should provide conditions favourable for a gradual snowmelt with dew point temperatures largely staying below the freezing mark and temperatures largely hovering just a bit above freezing.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -1 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -11 °C.
The winter that seemingly never ends continues in southern Manitoba, but more snow may actually mark a shift towards spring-like conditions.
Another low pressure system will bring a swath of 5 cm of snow across Southern Manitoba on Saturday.
Long-suffering Winnipeggers, buried under feet of snow and frozen to the core by a second half of winter largely marked by below seasonal temperatures frequently plummeting below -30 °C, have plenty of reason to look at the forecast with suspicion. Hopes for spring have been dashed several times already this year as long-range warmth is crushed by yet another Arctic High descending from the north.
But…
Major Change is afoot. The polar vortex, anchored near Baffin Island the past while, will soon shunt northeastwards over Greenland. As it leaves, it will take the cold trough responsible for the persistent cold in our region with it. This will allow a moderating westerly flow to develop over the Prairies. As a result, the region should see a return to much closer to seasonal temperatures in the coming week. There’s a good amount of confidence with this larger-scale pattern change, too!
But, before we get that far, there’s the weekend weather to consider. This morning sees the region in the wake of yet another Alberta Clipper, complete with cold conditions, strong northwesterly winds, and another closure of Winnipeg’s Perimeter Highway. These conditions will last into the afternoon before winds begin to ease. The day will bring a few afternoon clouds, but it’ll stay cool with a high in the mid-minus teens. Tonight will be clear and cold with a low near -25 °C.
Another low pressure system will begin moving from northern Alberta towards the Manitoba Lakes on Saturday. As its warm front approaches the region in the morning, it will bring increasing cloud as southerly winds strengthen. Blowing snow will develop over the region midday, then conditions will deteriorate mid-afternoon as snow moves into the region. Travel conditions will likely be poor between noon and 9 PM on Saturday. The snow will taper off overnight with 3–5 cm likely through most of the Red River Valley.
This system will, in addition to the wind and snow, bring warmer temperatures into the region. Temperatures will climb to the warm side of -10 °C by Saturday evening. Temperatures will continue to warm into the 0 to -5 °C range through the evening hours. The region will see a low a bit below -10 °C by Sunday morning.
Sunday marks the beginning of daylight savings time, so don’t forget to spring your clocks forward and hour!
Sunshine returns to the region on Sunday with easing northwest winds and a high in the -5 to -10 °C range. Temperatures will cool to the mid-minus teens on Sunday night with light winds a partly cloudy skies.
Long Range Outlook
Next week will mark the transition towards warmer weather, but how warm it gets will be limited by the immense snowpack over southern Manitoba. Temperatures will climb into the -5 to -10 °C range on Monday, followed by a warm frontal passage on Monday night. This will mark the start of a push of milder Pacific air into the region.
A surge of much warmer, spring-like temperatures will begin building across the Prairies on Monday.
Forecast daytime highs for Tuesday through Saturday all sit above freezing; anywhere from 2 to 4 °C above zero. Those temperatures might be tricky to reach without a strong wind keeping the lower atmosphere well-mixed. More likely, the region will see temperatures up to a couple degrees above 0°C. Temperatures warmer than that will be tied to areas with less snow or more exposed concrete (e.g. downtown Winnipeg may see slightly warmer temperatures).
The warmer temperatures will begin melting the snow pack over the region. With dew point values staying at or below freezing, no unusually rapid melt is expected. The warm air combined with the widespread snowpack should result in quite a bit of cloud cover through the week. More sun is possible if southwest or westerly winds develop, helping mix drier air into the Red River Valley.
While we’ve seen plenty of broken spring promises so far this year, it looks like a near-certainty that southern Manitoba will finally see some relief from the cold begin next week.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -2 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -12 °C.
Although temperatures will sit below seasonal normals over the coming days, the warming March sun and relief from the bitterly cold temperatures of January and February will make it feel comparatively pleasant outside.
With the coldest temperatures bottled back up in northern Manitoba, the stronger March sunshine will make it feel comparatively pleasant over southern regions.
It will be a beautiful day in the Red River Valley today with plenty of sunshine, light winds, and a high near -10 °C. A cold front will slump southwards tonight, bringing some cloud and another batch of light snow to the region. A couple centimetres of snow are possible overnight, followed by clearing skies for Wednesday morning.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler mid-week behind the cold front. Both Wednesday and Thursday will bring highs in the -10 to -15 °C range, but Wednesday night will be cold with lows approaching -30 °C. Lows will moderate towards -20 °C on Thursday evening as more cloud cover moves into the region ahead of a push of warmer air.
Winnipeg and area will see cloudier skies for the end of the week and the weekend. Highs will warm into the -5 to -10 °C range with overnight lows in the mid-minus teens. A bit of snow is possible over the weekend, with anywhere from 2–5 cm falling in a couple waves as disturbances pass to the north and south.
Long Range Outlook
Conditions look more settled next week with highs in the -5 to -10 °C range and lows in the -15 to -20 °C range. The region will see variable cloudiness and, although cool, it will continue to feel better and better as the sun gains strength.
Prolonged periods of cool(-ish) conditions and sunshine in March will help alleviate some of the flooding risk the region faces given substantial snow pack over the region. The strengthening sun can sublimate water out of the snow on ground, reducing it’s overall load and easing meltwater quantities. This may be a helpful couple weeks when it comes to the flood risk the region faces.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -5 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -15 °C.
