Tag: Snow

Cooler, Cloudy Weather Ahead for Winnipeg

Brad Leave a comment

The Winnipeg area will stay smothered in cloud cover this week as temperatures gradually cool.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday November 28, 2024
While temperatures will drop in southern Manitoba this week, the region will avoid the bitter cold that will move through the western Prairies.

The Winnipeg area will be stuck under a blanket of cloud cover this week thanks to a stagnant flow over the region. Winds will stay light over the next few days as a weak ridge of high pressure stalls over southern Manitoba.

While an occasional sunny break may be possible, it looks like skies will stay mostly cloudy to overcast for the next several days.

Daytime highs will hover around -6 °C over the next couple days with overnight lows close to -10 °C. With temperatures in this range, flurries will be possible over the next couple days as well.

A cold front will slide through the area on Thursday, bringing breezy northwest winds and cooler temperatures. Winds should climb up to 30 gusting 50 km/h on Thursday as colder air pushes in. Temperatures will struggle to break -10 °C and then head down into the mid-minus teens on Thursday night. The cooler temperatures will make flurries less likely, but with the push of colder air there will be a chance that some lake-effect snow streams off Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the end of the week, skies will likely stay mixed to mostly cloudy right through the weekend. Some sunshine is possible, but will more likely be through breaks in the cloud and any widespread clearing.

Temperatures will hold relatively steady with highs in the -15 to -10 °C range and overnight lows in the -20 to -15 °C range. Now that the city has snow on the ground, it will be much easier for temperatures to drop overnight, especially under any clearing that could develop.

Winds will gradually ease and there could still be some more flurries, but with the likelihood dropping along with the temperature.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -5 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -13 °C.

#awm/snow #awm/benign_weather #MBwx #Winnipeg

Snow Moves Across Southern Manitoba This Weekend

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Winnipeg likely won’t escape snow a second time; a low pressure system moving through the province will spread accumulating snow across southern Manitoba this weekend.

RDPS Total Accumulated Snowfall Forecast valid 00Z November 22, 2024 to 06Z November 25, 2024 at 10:1 SLR.
A disturbance crossing the Prairies this weekend will bring heavy snow to Saskatchewan and accumulating snow to southern Manitoba.

Unfortunately, those missing the sun won’t find much relief in the days ahead. Cloud cover will continue to smother the Winnipeg area in the days ahead with only limited opportunities for the sun to shine through.

For today, skies will stay cloudy as a weak disturbance tracks by north of the region. Temperatures will climb to a high in the -5 to 0 °C range with light southwesterly winds. There is a chance of flurries in Winnipeg; the main snow associated with this system will pass through the Interlake, but the Winnipeg area could get clipped by the southern edge. A couple centimetres are possible in the southern Interlake with less than a centimetre likely in the northern Red River Valley.

The cloud cover may break up a little bit overnight as light northwest winds move into the region. Temperatures will dip down into the -10 to -5 °C range by Saturday morning.

A ridge of high pressure will move across the region on Saturday. Some sunny breaks are possible, but the next low moving towards the area will spread more cloud into the Red River Valley later in the day. Winds will be light with a high around -5 °C. Some light snow could push into the area in the second half of the night.

An upper disturbance will track across the southern Prairies on Sunday and support an inverted trough that will build into Manitoba. This will spread a large area of snow across Saskatchewan on Saturday and Manitoba on Sunday. The heaviest snow will fall in Saskatchewan, where as much as 15 to 25 cm will fall across central and eastern portions of the province. In manitoba, the Parkland and Interlake will likely see 10 to 25 cm of snow, while areas along the Trans-Canada Highway corridor receive 5 to 10 cm. Amounts will diminish into the 2 to 5 cm range further south towards the international border. In Winnipeg, over 5 cm is likely to fall by Sunday evening.

Aside from the snow, temperatures will climb to a high just over -5 °C with light northeast winds. Temperatures will dip down into the -10 to -5 °C range overnight with a continued chance of flurries overnight.

Long Range Outlook

Winnipeg will get a break from the snow on Monday morning, but some more snow is likely to develop Monday afternoon as northerly winds move into the region. In addition to general light snow, areas in the lee of Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba will likely see some lake-effect snow through the afternoon hours.

The cloud cover will start to break up on Monday night, leading into the return of some sun for the middle of next week. The return of some sunshine will be driven by colder air that will continue to filter into the region all week. Daytime highs are likely to fall into the -15 to -10 °C range with overnight lows dipping into the -20 to -15 °C range, bringing the first real push of wintery air into the region this year.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -4 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -12 °C.

Cool, Wet Weather Ahead for Winnipeg

Brad Leave a comment

A slow-moving low pressure system will bring wet weather to southern Manitoba as rain showers transition to snow mid-week.

NAM Precipitation Type and Intensity Forecast valid 00Z Wednesday April 17, 2024
Manitoba will be under the influence of a complex weather set-up spanning from the central United States the fringes of Canada’s Arctic regions this week.

It will be a cool and wet few days in Winnipeg this week as moisture streams northwards out of the United States and brings rain showers to southern Manitoba. This is a large system that spans the Canadian Prairies and into much of the American Plains and mid-west.

The broad view of this system starts with a potent Colorado Low in the United States which is supporting a broad area of rain showers and waves of thunderstorms. This system will stream moisture northwards, where it will then be captured by an upper low over the Prairies and drawn into the northern Prairies.

The result of all this will be waves of rain showers that lift northwards out of the United States into southern Manitoba, pushing towards a feature called a deformation zone that will be aligned north-south along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. These are upper-level features that act as walls in the atmosphere; the wind does not move through them, and instead spreads out along them.

As the rain meets this feature, it will spread out into a broad area of rain over western Manitoba. This feature will gradually drift east later today and overnight as colder air slumps into the region. This precipitation will likely become mixed with snow overnight as it drifts east to the Red River Valley.

By Wednesday, it could be rain or snow falling as the band of precipitation slowly crosses the Red River Valley. Much of the precipitation should come to an end in Winnipeg later on Wednesday; by this point, the region will have seen anywhere from 10 to 30 mm of precipitation, with a chance that localized areas see even higher amounts. In Winnipeg, storm total precipitation will likely fall in the 15 to 25 mm range.

Temperatures throughout this period will fall from a high in the low teens today to high single digits on Wednesday. A cold front will sweep through on Wednesday night, drawing wrap-around snow into southern Manitoba and bringing even colder air into the region.

Daytime highs on Thursday will struggle into the low single digits with bands of wrap-around snow moving through the region. It will be a windy, cool day that comes as an unpleasant turnaround from the beautiful weather on the weekend.

A Note On Confidence

This system is large and complex, and even at this point there is notable uncertainty with how it will develop; in particular, the complex interactions of the Colorado Low and the thunderstorm activity it triggers in the United States could have knock-on effects that impact the weather here. The evolution of the moisture supply, the positioning of low-level jets, how the deformation zone evolves…these all could notably impact the when, where, and how much of these forecasts.

I’ve shared by best effort at a forecast here with full knowledge that I might think “I should have made a different decision in my forecast” by this evening. This should give you a good idea of the general weather pattern over the next few days, but I recommend keeping up to date on the latest forecasts for your area over on the MSC’s weather forecasts page.

Long Range Outlook

This system will finally start moving out of the region on Friday, leaving behind sunny skies for the weekend. Daytime highs will climb back into the low teens over the weekend, leading into a pleasant start to next week with near-seasonal temperatures and plenty of sunshine.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 11 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -2 °C.

More Snow in Southern Manitoba as Warm-Up Begins

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Winnipeg will see another burst of snow later today as warmer air begins spreading into Manitoba.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 06Z Saturday March 30, 2024
A low pressure system with an inverted trough will cross southern Manitoba on Saturday night.

Forecasts have shifted over the past few days regarding the next low pressure system moving through the province today. What earlier in the week was forecast to weaken as it moves into Manitoba is now expected to maintain its integrity. As a result, not only will skies cloud over today, light snow will spread from western Manitoba into the Red River Valley later this afternoon. Winds will pick up out of the southeast to around 20 km/h as temperatures climb to a high near +1 °C.

The snow will continue overnight before tapering off on Saturday morning. While areas in western Manitoba will see close to 10 cm of snow, amounts in the Red River Valley will be less. Winnipeg will likely see 2 to 5 cm of snow by the time it tapers off, though there is an off-chance of seeing totals in the 5 to 10 cm range. Temperatures will head down to a low near -4 °C tonight.

Skies will stay mainly cloudy on Saturday as a trough of low pressure hanging back into the region continues to weaken. Light westerly winds will develop as temperatures bounce back above freezing into the low single digits for the daytime high. Skies will begin to clear out overnight with a low in the -10 to -5 °C range.

A ridge of high pressure will begin moving into the region on Sunday, bringing partly cloudy skies and light winds. Daytime highs will again climb above freezing into the low single digits. Temperatures will dip down into the -15 to -10 °C range on Sunday night with partly cloudy skies.

Long Range Outlook

The warm-up starts in earnest early next week as an upper ridge begins building into the Prairies. This will push milder Pacific air eastwards, sending daytime highs into the 5 to 10 °C range for much of next week.

It looks dry through much of the week, though a couple passing systems could bring a chance of rain showers or light snow.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is +4 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -7 °C.