Tag: Snow

Mild Tuesday Snow Gives Way to Cold, Wind, and Blowing Snow

Brad Leave a comment

A low pressure system moving through southern Manitoba will bring snow and mild temperatures to the Red River Valley. In its wake, colder temperatures and strong winds will surge into the region.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 15Z Wednesday December 4, 2024
Strong winds will develop across the Red River Valley late Tuesday into Wednesday, likely producing widespread blowing snow across the region.

Apologies for the late forecast, life has been busy!

Snow spread across much of southern Manitoba this morning as a low pressure system pushed a warm front into the region. A burst of moderate to heavy snow has moved through the region this morning, and now milder temperatures will spread across the region with daytime highs of -5 to 0 °C across southern Manitoba. As the warm air moves in, stiff southerly winds will shift to lighter westerlies.

A cold front will sweep through later today, ushering in some light snow and a major shift in the weather. Temperatures will plummet into the minus teens tonight as northwesterly winds strengthen into the 40 to 50 km/h range with gusts of 60 to 80 km/h. It’s likely that lake-effect snow will develop off the lee of Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg, producing a band of flurries that could last well into Wednesday.

The colder temperatures, new snow, and strong winds will likely produce widespread blowing snow across the region, though limited snowpack inside of Winnipeg could reduce the overall amount of blowing snow within city limits. Of particular concern will be the Trans-Canada Highway corridor between Winnipeg and Portage la Prairie where strong winds, existing snow, and lake-effect snow could combine to produce white out conditions and potential highway closures heading through Wednesday.

With those strong northwest winds, temperatures will only recover a couple degrees on Wednesday before dropping down to a low in the -20 to -25 °C range on Wednesday night. Wind chilled values will likely hover in the -25 to -30 range all day then closer to -30 overnight as the wind dies off.

A ridge of high pressure over the province on Thursday should bring partly cloudy skies to the region, light winds, and highs in the mid-minus teens.

Long Range Outlook

Another notable pattern shift will occur late this week as a strong low pressure system is forecast to track across the southern Arctic. This system will send warmer air sweeping across the Prairies, sending daytime highs back towards the 0 °C mark on the Weekend. More snow looks possible eon Sunday as a cold front pushes through the region, then it looks like a return to near-seasonal conditions for much of next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -7 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -16 °C.

Cooler, Cloudy Weather Ahead for Winnipeg

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The Winnipeg area will stay smothered in cloud cover this week as temperatures gradually cool.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday November 28, 2024
While temperatures will drop in southern Manitoba this week, the region will avoid the bitter cold that will move through the western Prairies.

The Winnipeg area will be stuck under a blanket of cloud cover this week thanks to a stagnant flow over the region. Winds will stay light over the next few days as a weak ridge of high pressure stalls over southern Manitoba.

While an occasional sunny break may be possible, it looks like skies will stay mostly cloudy to overcast for the next several days.

Daytime highs will hover around -6 °C over the next couple days with overnight lows close to -10 °C. With temperatures in this range, flurries will be possible over the next couple days as well.

A cold front will slide through the area on Thursday, bringing breezy northwest winds and cooler temperatures. Winds should climb up to 30 gusting 50 km/h on Thursday as colder air pushes in. Temperatures will struggle to break -10 °C and then head down into the mid-minus teens on Thursday night. The cooler temperatures will make flurries less likely, but with the push of colder air there will be a chance that some lake-effect snow streams off Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the end of the week, skies will likely stay mixed to mostly cloudy right through the weekend. Some sunshine is possible, but will more likely be through breaks in the cloud and any widespread clearing.

Temperatures will hold relatively steady with highs in the -15 to -10 °C range and overnight lows in the -20 to -15 °C range. Now that the city has snow on the ground, it will be much easier for temperatures to drop overnight, especially under any clearing that could develop.

Winds will gradually ease and there could still be some more flurries, but with the likelihood dropping along with the temperature.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -5 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -13 °C.

#awm/snow #awm/benign_weather #MBwx #Winnipeg

Snow Moves Across Southern Manitoba This Weekend

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Winnipeg likely won’t escape snow a second time; a low pressure system moving through the province will spread accumulating snow across southern Manitoba this weekend.

RDPS Total Accumulated Snowfall Forecast valid 00Z November 22, 2024 to 06Z November 25, 2024 at 10:1 SLR.
A disturbance crossing the Prairies this weekend will bring heavy snow to Saskatchewan and accumulating snow to southern Manitoba.

Unfortunately, those missing the sun won’t find much relief in the days ahead. Cloud cover will continue to smother the Winnipeg area in the days ahead with only limited opportunities for the sun to shine through.

For today, skies will stay cloudy as a weak disturbance tracks by north of the region. Temperatures will climb to a high in the -5 to 0 °C range with light southwesterly winds. There is a chance of flurries in Winnipeg; the main snow associated with this system will pass through the Interlake, but the Winnipeg area could get clipped by the southern edge. A couple centimetres are possible in the southern Interlake with less than a centimetre likely in the northern Red River Valley.

The cloud cover may break up a little bit overnight as light northwest winds move into the region. Temperatures will dip down into the -10 to -5 °C range by Saturday morning.

A ridge of high pressure will move across the region on Saturday. Some sunny breaks are possible, but the next low moving towards the area will spread more cloud into the Red River Valley later in the day. Winds will be light with a high around -5 °C. Some light snow could push into the area in the second half of the night.

An upper disturbance will track across the southern Prairies on Sunday and support an inverted trough that will build into Manitoba. This will spread a large area of snow across Saskatchewan on Saturday and Manitoba on Sunday. The heaviest snow will fall in Saskatchewan, where as much as 15 to 25 cm will fall across central and eastern portions of the province. In manitoba, the Parkland and Interlake will likely see 10 to 25 cm of snow, while areas along the Trans-Canada Highway corridor receive 5 to 10 cm. Amounts will diminish into the 2 to 5 cm range further south towards the international border. In Winnipeg, over 5 cm is likely to fall by Sunday evening.

Aside from the snow, temperatures will climb to a high just over -5 °C with light northeast winds. Temperatures will dip down into the -10 to -5 °C range overnight with a continued chance of flurries overnight.

Long Range Outlook

Winnipeg will get a break from the snow on Monday morning, but some more snow is likely to develop Monday afternoon as northerly winds move into the region. In addition to general light snow, areas in the lee of Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba will likely see some lake-effect snow through the afternoon hours.

The cloud cover will start to break up on Monday night, leading into the return of some sun for the middle of next week. The return of some sunshine will be driven by colder air that will continue to filter into the region all week. Daytime highs are likely to fall into the -15 to -10 °C range with overnight lows dipping into the -20 to -15 °C range, bringing the first real push of wintery air into the region this year.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -4 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -12 °C.

Cool, Wet Weather Ahead for Winnipeg

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A slow-moving low pressure system will bring wet weather to southern Manitoba as rain showers transition to snow mid-week.

NAM Precipitation Type and Intensity Forecast valid 00Z Wednesday April 17, 2024
Manitoba will be under the influence of a complex weather set-up spanning from the central United States the fringes of Canada’s Arctic regions this week.

It will be a cool and wet few days in Winnipeg this week as moisture streams northwards out of the United States and brings rain showers to southern Manitoba. This is a large system that spans the Canadian Prairies and into much of the American Plains and mid-west.

The broad view of this system starts with a potent Colorado Low in the United States which is supporting a broad area of rain showers and waves of thunderstorms. This system will stream moisture northwards, where it will then be captured by an upper low over the Prairies and drawn into the northern Prairies.

The result of all this will be waves of rain showers that lift northwards out of the United States into southern Manitoba, pushing towards a feature called a deformation zone that will be aligned north-south along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. These are upper-level features that act as walls in the atmosphere; the wind does not move through them, and instead spreads out along them.

As the rain meets this feature, it will spread out into a broad area of rain over western Manitoba. This feature will gradually drift east later today and overnight as colder air slumps into the region. This precipitation will likely become mixed with snow overnight as it drifts east to the Red River Valley.

By Wednesday, it could be rain or snow falling as the band of precipitation slowly crosses the Red River Valley. Much of the precipitation should come to an end in Winnipeg later on Wednesday; by this point, the region will have seen anywhere from 10 to 30 mm of precipitation, with a chance that localized areas see even higher amounts. In Winnipeg, storm total precipitation will likely fall in the 15 to 25 mm range.

Temperatures throughout this period will fall from a high in the low teens today to high single digits on Wednesday. A cold front will sweep through on Wednesday night, drawing wrap-around snow into southern Manitoba and bringing even colder air into the region.

Daytime highs on Thursday will struggle into the low single digits with bands of wrap-around snow moving through the region. It will be a windy, cool day that comes as an unpleasant turnaround from the beautiful weather on the weekend.

A Note On Confidence

This system is large and complex, and even at this point there is notable uncertainty with how it will develop; in particular, the complex interactions of the Colorado Low and the thunderstorm activity it triggers in the United States could have knock-on effects that impact the weather here. The evolution of the moisture supply, the positioning of low-level jets, how the deformation zone evolves…these all could notably impact the when, where, and how much of these forecasts.

I’ve shared by best effort at a forecast here with full knowledge that I might think “I should have made a different decision in my forecast” by this evening. This should give you a good idea of the general weather pattern over the next few days, but I recommend keeping up to date on the latest forecasts for your area over on the MSC’s weather forecasts page.

Long Range Outlook

This system will finally start moving out of the region on Friday, leaving behind sunny skies for the weekend. Daytime highs will climb back into the low teens over the weekend, leading into a pleasant start to next week with near-seasonal temperatures and plenty of sunshine.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 11 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -2 °C.