A winter storm moving into the province on Sunday will bring a mix of wintery weather to southern Manitoba.

Before the storm arrives, though, it will be a pleasant start to the weekend in Winnipeg. Temperatures will climb above freezing today as a low pressure system crosses through central Manitoba. It will drag mild Pacific air across the south, sending daytime highs into the 5 to 10 °C range through the Red River Valley.

Breezy southerly winds up to 30 gusting 50 km/h this morning will ease midday as Winnipeg moves into the warm sector of this system. The region will see mixed skies develop this afternoon, followed by more organized cloud cover as a cold front slumps into the region tonight. As the cold front moves into the region, northwest winds will pick up into the 20 to 30 km/h range and then ease overnight. Temperatures will dip to a low near -10 °C.

Saturday will bring mixed skies to the region as the next weather system to impact the region begins to take shape. Northeast winds will pick up into the 20 to 30 km/h range as a low centre begins to develop in the Northern Plains of the United States. Skies will cloud over through the day with light snow possible by the late afternoon or evening.

Temperatures will climb to a high near -5 °C by the evening and continue to rise to the freezing mark by Sunday morning. The snow will taper off overnight, leaving behind a couple centimetres, and be replaced with a risk of freezing drizzle into Sunday morning.

On Sunday, the low centre will lift out of the United States and into Southern Manitoba. This system impact the entirety of southern Manitoba and bring adverse winter storm conditions to many regions. In the sake of brevity, here’s what to expect for each weather element.

Heavy Snow

This low pressure system will spread an area of heavy snowfall across southern Saskatchewan and into southern Manitoba. Because this low will bring a surge of warm air into the Red River Valley and SE Manitoba, there is uncertainty as to how far east the heavy snow will reach.

That said, through southwest Manitoba, Parkland Manitoba, and much of the Interlake, this system will bring 15 to 35 cm of fresh snow. Amounts will taper off gradually into central Manitoba and sharply into the warm sector of above-freezing air.

Freezing Rain

This system will support a band of freezing rain that develops along its advancing flank and will likely cut across the Red River Valley and SE Manitoba. Note that this risk area could shift west or east over the coming days as the system takes shape. That said, the risk of freezing rain will begin early Sunday and persist through the day. Freezing rain across southern Manitoba will come to an end on Sunday evening as the low begins to track east and colder air sweeps into the southeast corner of the province.

Rain

To the east and south of the freezing rain band, temperatures will warm enough for any precipitation that falls to fall as rain. This will include much of SE Manitoba but could push as far west as Winnipeg and north as Lake Winnipeg. Rainfalls totals could reach as high as 5 to 10 mm, but much more of the precipitation should fall on the cold side of the system as snow.

Additionally, there are early signals that as the cold front wraps around this low, convective cells may develop along the rain band associated with it. A few rumbles of thunder and heavier rain showers can’t be ruled out close to the U.S. border late Sunday into the evening.

A Guess for Winnipeg?

In Winnipeg, it looks like a risk of freezing rain on Sunday morning will transition to light rain, and then to periods of snow in the afternoon as cooler air moves in. There is significant uncertainty with this, though, and even a 50 km shift in storm track could end up changing the forecast to 10 to 20 cm of snow. On the other hand, if the storm ends up 50 km further west, much of the Red River Valley, Winnipeg included, could be in this storm’s dry slot and see little beyond a couple waves of light snow or rain and a lot of drizzle.

Be sure to keep an eye for updated forecasts as the event draws near. If you’re in SW or Parkland Manitoba, be prepared for poor conditions on Sunday as a notable winter storm moves through the region.

Long Range Outlook

Light snow will taper off across central Manitoba on Monday. There may be a small chance of flurries in Winnipeg on Monday, but the activity should stay mainly to the north. The first half of next week will be cooler with highs in the -10 to -5 °C range.

Another low pressure system will slice its way northwards through Manitoba mid-week; it will bring another chance of mixed precipitation to the province and bring milder weather back to the Red River Valley and areas east.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -5°C while the seasonal overnight low is -15 °C.