Tag: Snow

Wintery Mix on Wednesday Sets Stage for Prolonged Cold Snap

Brad Leave a comment

A cold, wet and windy Wednesday in Winnipeg will give way to…more cloudy and cold conditions.

Winnipeg is in for a cold, wet day today. A rapidly strengthening low pressure system tracking through Minnesota has spread rain across southern Manitoba this morning. The rain will further organize and intensify this afternoon, bolstered by an upper-level trough moving into the region. The complicating factor today will be a cold front that surges southeastwards this afternoon. Behind it, temperatures will fall to around +2°C with strong northwesterly winds of 40 gusting 60 km/h. Given the significantly cooler temperatures, it seems quite likely that the rain will change over to snow behind the front. The precipitation will taper off in the evening.

There are two possible outcomes today: either the rain holds out for much of the day and it doesn’t change over to snow until late in the afternoon, or it changes over to snow once the heavier precipitation moves in for the afternoon. In the case of the former, Winnipeg would likely see around 10 mm of rain and possibly a couple cm of snow that sticks to grassy surfaces. In the case of the latter, Winnipeg could see near 5 cm of wet snow that leaves grassy areas covered and roads slushy.

Southern Manitoba will see a swath of 10-15 mm of liquid-equivalent precipitation today; some of that will likely fall as snow.
Southern Manitoba will see a swath of 10-15 mm of liquid-equivalent precipitation today; some of that will likely fall as snow.

The gusty northwesterly winds will persist into the evening before diminishing overnight as a ridge of high pressure moves in. Skies will clear through the evening but a few clouds will likely stream off of Lake Manitoba for a portion of the night. Winnipeg will see a low temperature near -5°C.

On Thursday, Winnipeg will see just a few clouds with light winds for much of the day. Temperatures will rebound slightly with a high near 6°C. Heading into the evening, skies will cloud over ahead of the next low pressure system moving into the Northern Plains. Temperatures will dip to a low near 0°C. Through the second half of the night, it’s likely that some light rain or snow will push northwards into the Red River Valley.

Friday will bring another cloudy day with periods of light rain or snow. Light northeasterly winds will keep temperatures cool. Winnipeg will see a high near +4°C. Accumulations won’t be too much with under 5 mm forecast for the Red River Valley right now. Most of the precipitation will taper off in the evening, but skies will remain mostly cloudy through the night. A few flurries will be possible overnight off of Lake Manitoba. Winnipeg will see a low near 0°C.

Long Range Outlook

Unfortunately, the long-range forecast still stinks. Plenty of cloud will persist while the chance for rain potentially intermingled with some soggy snow returns Sunday night into Monday. High temperatures will continue way below normal in the mid- to low single digits right through the end of next week. Nothing to say but terrible weather for this time of year.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 14°C while the seasonal overnight low is +3°C.

Cool, Cloudy Conditions Here For A While

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Winnipeg will continue to see cool temperatures and variable cloudiness with no major pattern change in sight.

The shift to late October weather isn’t going anywhere, all thanks to a prominent “Rex Block” over the eastern Pacific. This feature has built a potent upper ridge over the Pacific which results in a large upper trough downstream: over the Prairies. This has, and will continue to, allow Arctic air to spill southwards and remain in place longer than we typically see at this time of year.

That said, today will be a cold one in Winnipeg. Breezy northwesterly winds of 20 to 30 km/h behind a cold front that moved through overnight will keep temperatures cool. With a high of just +4°C, Winnipeg will remain over 10°C below seasonal today. Skies will be mostly cloudy; a few sunny breaks are possible, but plenty of stratus cloud will remain in the region and streaming off of the lakes.

Lake-effect snow and/or rain showers will stream off of Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg today.
Lake-effect snow and/or rain showers will stream off of Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg today.

Through the morning, Lake Manitoba will be producing a narrow band of snow that will drift southeastwards off the lake. There’s a chance that Winnipeg may see a bit of rain or snow from this band a bit later in the morning. The lake-effect precipitation should taper off midday as the winds shift a bit more westerly.

Skies will clear tonight as a ridge of high pressure moves across the province. Winnipeg will see its first hard freeze of the season with temperatures dropping below zero this evening and reaching around -4 or -5°C by Saturday morning.

Saturday will bring slightly warmer temperatures back to Winnipeg as the Arctic ridge slides off to the east. Temperatures will climb to a high near 9°C with mixed skies developing for the afternoon. Winds will remain light at 10 to 20 km/h. A trough of low pressure moving through in the evening will bring a chance of rain showers to the city. Skies swill slowly clear through the night as temperatures drop to a low near +1°C.

The Red River Valley will see its first widespread, major freeze of the year on Friday night into Saturday morning.
The Red River Valley will see its first widespread, major freeze of the year on Friday night into Saturday morning.

Winnipeg will see some sunshine Sunday morning, but more cloud will move in for the afternoon. Temperatures will only climb to around 6°C. Skies will remain cloudy on Sunday night with temperatures dipping to a low near 0°C.

Long Range Outlook

Unfortunately, little change is on the horizon. Next week looks set to bring variable cloudiness alongside a couple chances for some rain. Daytime highs are forecast to remain 10°C or less all through next week with overnight lows near or just below freezing.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 15°C while the seasonal overnight low is 4°C.

Light Snow Gives Way to Cool But Pleasant Conditions

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Snow moving through the region today will give way to more sunshine, but below-seasonal temperatures remain.

Winnipeg will see another day with high temperatures above the freezing mark with cloud cover spreads eastwards into the Red River Valley. Winds will remain light, which should help make a relatively pleasant day. Skies in Winnipeg will become cloudy by late afternoon with light snow spreading into the region this evening. This system will bring 2 to 4 cm of snow to the city1, but higher amounts will fall to the west and southwest. 4 to 8 cm of snow is likely through Parkland and southwestern Manitoba, extending into the southwestern Red River Valley. The snow will ease to a few flurries overnight as temperatures dip to a low near -6°C.

24hr. RDPS Snow Accumulation (at 10:1 SLR) valid 12Z Thursday April 12, 2018
A swath of snow will fall across southwestern and south-central Manitoba Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

Any remaining flurries will taper off on Thursday morning as skies gradually clear. Temperatures will be similar to Wednesday with a high near +1°C, but northerly winds of 15 to 25 km/h will be more prominent in the afternoon. While Winnipeg will have more sun than cloud by the afternoon, the southern Red River Valley will likely have to wait until evening to see the cloud cover move out. Winds remain out of the north at 10 to 20 km/h on Thursday night as temperatures dip to a low near -11°C.

Friday will bring mainly sunny skies to Winnipeg as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the north. Winds will continue out of the north at 20 to 30 km/h. Temperatures will continue to be cool with a high near +1°C. Winds will ease on Friday night as temperatures dip to a low near -12°C.2

Long Range Outlook

The weekend is actually looking quite pleasant with plenty of sunshine and daytime highs climbing back into the mid-single digits.3 Winds look to remain light out of the east.

The next chance for precipitation looks to come mid-week with increasing cloud as a Colorado Low develops over the Northern Plains. On the bright side, it looks like a gradual trend towards seasonal temperatures through the course of the week!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 9°C while the seasonal overnight low is -3°C.

  1. Amounts could end up a bit less due to snow melting on contact with the ground early in the event. ↩
  2. With the incoming ridge of high pressure, it’s possible that temperatures could reach even a few degrees colder if the conditions are right. ↩
  3. It has to be noted, though that this is still well below seasonal normals. ↩

Temperatures Climb Above Freezing But More Snow Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

Temperatures will finally climb above 0°C this week, but sadly more snow is on the way.

Winnipeg will see temperatures finally climb above the freezing mark today as the high climbs to around 0 or +1°C under sunny skies. Once the sun burns off the morning chill, it will actually be a fairly nice day with light winds as a ridge of high pressure moves across the province. A bit of cloud cover will begin moving into the region tonight as temperatures dip to a low near -7°C.

Tuesday will bring mixed to mostly cloudy skies as thicker cloud cover builds into the province ahead of the next low tracking across the Prairies. Temperatures will reach the closest to seasonal they’ve been since March 28th with a high near +4°C expected. Unfortunately, this will still be a fair amount below the seasonal high of 8°C. Winds will pick up out of the west to around 15 to 25 km/h in the afternoon. Skies will become overcast Tuesday evening with temperatures falling to a low near -4°C.

12hr. Accumulated Snowfall GDPS/GFS/NAM Comparison valid 00/06Z Thursday April 12, 2018
Comparisons of 12 hour accumulated snowfall across Southern Manitoba through the day Friday

A weak low passing through Saskatchewan into North Dakota will spread a narrow swath of snow southeastwards across the Canadian Prairies. It will spread snow across Manitoba through Wednesday, however where the snow exactly falls is a bit in question and depends precisely on the track the low ends up tacking. In general, it looks like this low will produce a swath of snow from western Manitoba into North Dakota. Around 5 to 10 cm of snow looks likely along the centre of the swath with amounts quickly tapering off into the 2 to 4 cm range to the north and south. Isolated pockets of higher amounts are possible under the heaviest band.

Winnipeg will likely end up under or just north of this band. It looks like 2 cm would be a likely low-end forecast for Winnipeg, with 3 to 6 cm looking likely through the day. That said, with temperatures near or just above freezing, some of that snow may melt, shaving a bit off the measurements.

The snow will taper off in the afternoon/evening, with winds picking up out of the north-northeast to around 20 to 30 km/h. Temperatures will head to a low near -6°C under cloudy skies on Wednesday night.

Long Range Outlook

Attention then turns to Friday, where weather models are picking up on the development of a potent storm in the United States but have strongly diverging opinions on where it will go. There may be a good chance that it remains south of the border as a strong deformation zone develops south of the 49th as the cooler outflow from the northern Prairies is pinned against the developing Wyoming/Colorado low.

GDPS 24hr. Snowfall Accumulation Forecast valid 00Z Saturday April 14, 2018
While the location is uncertain, there is good agreement of Friday’s storm system producing upwards of 25 cm of snow along its heaviest swath

Earlier model runs had this system pushing into southern Manitoba, which is something we’ll definitely keep an eye on. It will be a very potent storm, likely producing significant snowfall with totals of more than 25 cm across its heaviest bands, so wherever it ends up will have to deal with a return of treacherous winter travel conditions. We’ll be keeping an eye on things as they develop and have updates later in the week!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 8°C while the seasonal overnight low is -3°C.