Calmer Weather Ahead

Winnipeg will see variable cloudiness and near-seasonal temperatures through the remainder of the work week.

Winnipeg will see pleasant days ahead despite slightly below-seasonal temperatures. The city will see variable cloudiness today and tomorrow as the last remaining cloud from Monday’s storm system drifts eastwards through the region. No snow is expected. Winnipeg should see high temperatures near -5 or -4°C and overnight lows dipping as cold as -15°C.

GDPS Forecast 2m Temperatures and 10m Wind Speeds valid 00Z March 10, 2018
A low pressure system will be just west of the Manitoba border by Friday evening

Friday may start with a bit of sunshine, but cloud is forecast to begin moving in early in the day as a low pressure system approaches from Saskatchewan. Winds will pick up out of the southeast to around 20 to 30 km/h. Temperatures will reach a seasonal -3°C for a high, then dip down to about -6°C overnight under cloudy skies. The chance for light snow will increase after midnight as the low moves into Manitoba.

Long Range Outlook

Saturday morning will likely bring a bit of light snow to the region with accumulations of 2 to 3 cm possible. The snow will taper off as the low pressure system passes and winds switch to northwesterly. Mild temperatures will remain in place for Saturday, the near-seasonal temperatures return for Sunday.

Next week is looking fairly dry with a fair amount of sunshine. Temperatures should return to slightly above-seasonal values, with several days above-0°C days possible!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -3°C while the seasonal overnight low is -13°C.

Snow Tapering Off As Winnipeg Digs Out

Snow will gradually taper off today as Winnipeg digs out of the biggest snow storm of the 2017/18 winter season.

The long-advertised winter storm has finally moved into the Red River Valley, bringing a variety of winter weather with it. Everything started off yesterday evening as rain and ice pellets moved into Manitoba from North Dakota. As the precipitation intensified, the rain switched over to heavy snow. In some places, notably near Letellier and west of Winnipeg, people got to experience the rare1 phenomenon known as thundersnow. Heavy snow set up along a southeast to northwest band that remained stationary for much of the night. Winnipeg found itself right under that band, and so far has seen as much as 15 to 20 cm of snow, with snow still falling in some parts of the city.

This storm has had significant impact on southern Manitoba. Through Sunday evening, many area highways began to close as the snow piled up and conditions became quite treacherous. As of 6:15 this morning, most major highways still remain closed. Additionally, the wet, heavy snow has resulted in power bumps or outages throughout Winnipeg and the Red River Valley. Manitoba Hydro’s power outage map shows a rather extensive area where the overnight snow has impacted the power grid.

XWL Base Reflectivity RADAR Imagery valid 6:00 AM CST
Woodlands RADAR shows the main band of snow running northwest-southeast with Winnipeg right on the southern edge.

Periods of snow will continue today as it streams northwestwards through the region. At times where Winnipeg may find itself outside the bands of snow moving through, there will be a slight chance of freezing drizzle. In Winnipeg, the snow should taper off by mid-to-late afternoon as drier air begins moving westwards from Ontario. The snow will continue over the western Red River Valley well into the evening, so travellers will still need to give themselves time and drive carefully if heading west once the highways re-open.

Temperatures will continue to be mild today with a high near 0°C. Winds will continue out of the east around 30 gusting to 50 km/h for the rest of the day. The chance for snow will taper off this evening, as will the winds. The clouds will begin to break up sometime after midnight as temperatures head to a low near -12°C.

Tuesday will bring mixed skies with some gradual clearing towards sunnier conditions in the afternoon. Temperatures will be near-seasonal with a high near -5°C. The winds will be lighter too at about 15 km/h out of the northeast. More clouds will move in overnight as the inverted trough that has been anchored near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border begins shifting eastwards. Expect a low near -14°C on Tuesday night.

Wednesday will bring the inverted trough back through Winnipeg, bringing mostly cloudy skies and a chance of flurries as it moves through. Temperatures will remain similar to Tuesday with a high near -5°C and low overnight near -13°C. Winds will be light as the trough moves through.

Long Range Outlook

The remainder of the work week will bring variable cloudiness with temperatures climbing back towards 0°C for the weekend. A disturbance moving through at the end of the week may bring another batch of snow to Winnipeg. Forecasts currently show the possibility of 2-5 cm Friday night into Saturday morning. After that moves through, the weather looks fairly quiet with mild temperatures.

Dig out, enjoy the winter wonderland, and get ready for slush and puddles by the end of the week!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -4°C while the seasonal overnight low is -14°C.

  1. Particularly rare on the Canadian Prairies!

Major Winter Storm Brewing, Heavy Snow On The Way

Winnipeg is on track to see an unsettled weekend culminate in a major winter storm as a Colorado Low spreads heavy snow into Manitoba on Sunday night. But the big question remains: how much?

Those hoping that we could escape winter without a major storm this year, brace yourself. It all kicks off today with cloud building through southern Manitoba as a complex storm system begins organizing over the western United States. Temperatures in Winnipeg will be mild with a high near -2°C. Winds will remain light out of the northeast. As some warmer air lifts northwards through the Dakotas towards Manitoba in the evening, it will begin bringing the chance of snow to the region. Temperatures should remain steady near -3°C on Friday night.

The uncertainty begins to ramp up on Saturday with models providing a variety of possible solutions. The general agreement as of writing is that snow will spread across southern Manitoba through the day on Saturday, with more organized snowfall developing on Saturday night. Amounts with this first batch of snow will be limited, with general amounts of 2 to 4 cm forecast on Saturday night. Temperatures will be quite mild on Saturday with a high near +1°C, which means that if precipitation moves into the Red River Valley through the day, some if it may fall as rain. Winds will be out of the east-northeast at 20 to 30 km/h.

NAM forecast simulated reflectivity with precipitation type valid 00Z Sunday March 4, 2018
Snow will be possible across much of southern Manitoba on Saturday as a line of snow lifts northwards.

Mild temperatures will continue Sunday with highs once again near 0°C. There will be a slight chance of flurries or drizzle through the day as a Colorado Low begins lifting northwards. Winds will continue out of the north near 30 km/h. The main event is forecast to begin on Sunday evening as heavy snow moves into the province from the south. Unfortunately, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty associated with this, including:

  • Where will the heaviest bands of snow set up?
  • How quickly will this system move?
  • Exactly how intense will the snowfall be?

For Sunday night, it looks like the main threat areas are the Red River Valley west towards the Saskatchewan border. There’s a lot of uncertainty with how fast the snow will push northwards, but reaching the Trans-Canada corridor by Monday morning looks likely. The snow will be heavy with the potential for 10 to 20 cm overnight. Winnipeg may escape much of this, instead receiving most of the heavy snow on Monday.

GFS 24 hour snowfall accumulation (at 10:1 SLR) valid 06Z Tuesday March 6, 2018
One potential snowfall outcome has up to 30 cm of snow in the Red River Valley from Sunday night through Monday. But it’s just 🎯 at this point…

The heavy snow will continue through Monday and then is forecast to taper off Tuesday evening. Storm-total snowfall from Saturday through Monday will likely fall into the 15 to 25 cm range, but there is a small chance of seeing amounts as high as 30 to 40 cm if a worst-case scenario occurs. Either way, it will easily claim the title as worst winter storm so far this year.

Travel Impacts

There will be 3 primary travel impacts from the worst of this storm:

  1. Deteriorating road conditions as snow accumulates.
  2. Reduced visibility in snow and blowing snow.
  3. Snow drifts developing on roadways.

These three elements will be out in full force Sunday night into Monday, and will likely make travel extremely difficult if not impossible. If you currently have travel plans for Sunday night or Monday, it would be a good idea to make a contingency plan and prepare for delays.

Weekend Update

It cannot be understated that the predictability associated with this system is low at this point. We’ll be posting an update or two through the next couple days leading up to the event with updated forecast information, so stay tuned.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -5°C while the seasonal overnight low is -15°C.

Early Taste of Spring Continues, Winter Storm Looms on Horizon

Winnipeg will see March will kick off the same way February ends: with high temperatures near 0°C bringing an early taste of spring to the region.

The mild weather Winnipeg has seen over the past couple days isn’t going anywhere. A mild Pacific flow will continue through the rest of the work week, bringing near-freezing highs to the region. Tonight and Thursday night will both see overnight lows near -10°C.

GDPS 2m Temperature Anomaly valid 00Z Friday March 2, 2018
Much of Manitoba will see above-normal temperatures on Thursday, shown here by the areas shaded red

Winnipeg will see plenty of sun as well. A few clouds will move through the Red River Valley today, but then mainly sunny skies will be in place through Thursday and much of Friday. Some cloud will begin moving into the region late Friday ahead of a low pressure complex organizing in the United States. The cloud cover will keep Friday night’s low warmer, only dipping down to around -3°C.

Long Range Outlook – Winter Storm Brewing

The weather will turn more unsettled for the weekend as a series of low pressure systems move through the region. Mild temperatures will continue in Winnipeg, but cloudy skies will persist through the weekend into the first half of next week.

There will be a couple of chances for snow – or even a rain shower – through the weekend. Come Sunday night through Monday, what may end up as the biggest storm thus far in the 2017/18 winter season moves through. While it’s too early to put much trust in any of the forecasts, some guidance suggests Winnipeg and the Red River Valley may see over 25 cm of snow with this storm system.

GDPS 850mb Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Monday March 5, 2018
A complex, slow-moving low pressure system may bring Winnipeg the biggest winter storm of the 2017/18 season on Sunday night into Monday.

For now, just keep it in mind that there is the chance for a major snow storm to start next week. If you have travel plans involving driving on Monday, consider contingency plans just in case.

Until then, enjoy the beautiful sunshine and mild temperatures!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -5°C while the seasonal overnight low is -15°C.