Tag: Snow

Major Winter Storm Brewing, Heavy Snow On The Way

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Winnipeg is on track to see an unsettled weekend culminate in a major winter storm as a Colorado Low spreads heavy snow into Manitoba on Sunday night. But the big question remains: how much?

Those hoping that we could escape winter without a major storm this year, brace yourself. It all kicks off today with cloud building through southern Manitoba as a complex storm system begins organizing over the western United States. Temperatures in Winnipeg will be mild with a high near -2°C. Winds will remain light out of the northeast. As some warmer air lifts northwards through the Dakotas towards Manitoba in the evening, it will begin bringing the chance of snow to the region. Temperatures should remain steady near -3°C on Friday night.

The uncertainty begins to ramp up on Saturday with models providing a variety of possible solutions. The general agreement as of writing is that snow will spread across southern Manitoba through the day on Saturday, with more organized snowfall developing on Saturday night. Amounts with this first batch of snow will be limited, with general amounts of 2 to 4 cm forecast on Saturday night. Temperatures will be quite mild on Saturday with a high near +1°C, which means that if precipitation moves into the Red River Valley through the day, some if it may fall as rain. Winds will be out of the east-northeast at 20 to 30 km/h.

NAM forecast simulated reflectivity with precipitation type valid 00Z Sunday March 4, 2018
Snow will be possible across much of southern Manitoba on Saturday as a line of snow lifts northwards.

Mild temperatures will continue Sunday with highs once again near 0°C. There will be a slight chance of flurries or drizzle through the day as a Colorado Low begins lifting northwards. Winds will continue out of the north near 30 km/h. The main event is forecast to begin on Sunday evening as heavy snow moves into the province from the south. Unfortunately, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty associated with this, including:

  • Where will the heaviest bands of snow set up?
  • How quickly will this system move?
  • Exactly how intense will the snowfall be?

For Sunday night, it looks like the main threat areas are the Red River Valley west towards the Saskatchewan border. There’s a lot of uncertainty with how fast the snow will push northwards, but reaching the Trans-Canada corridor by Monday morning looks likely. The snow will be heavy with the potential for 10 to 20 cm overnight. Winnipeg may escape much of this, instead receiving most of the heavy snow on Monday.

GFS 24 hour snowfall accumulation (at 10:1 SLR) valid 06Z Tuesday March 6, 2018
One potential snowfall outcome has up to 30 cm of snow in the Red River Valley from Sunday night through Monday. But it’s just 🎯 at this point…

The heavy snow will continue through Monday and then is forecast to taper off Tuesday evening. Storm-total snowfall from Saturday through Monday will likely fall into the 15 to 25 cm range, but there is a small chance of seeing amounts as high as 30 to 40 cm if a worst-case scenario occurs. Either way, it will easily claim the title as worst winter storm so far this year.

Travel Impacts

There will be 3 primary travel impacts from the worst of this storm:

  1. Deteriorating road conditions as snow accumulates.
  2. Reduced visibility in snow and blowing snow.
  3. Snow drifts developing on roadways.

These three elements will be out in full force Sunday night into Monday, and will likely make travel extremely difficult if not impossible. If you currently have travel plans for Sunday night or Monday, it would be a good idea to make a contingency plan and prepare for delays.

Weekend Update

It cannot be understated that the predictability associated with this system is low at this point. We’ll be posting an update or two through the next couple days leading up to the event with updated forecast information, so stay tuned.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -5°C while the seasonal overnight low is -15°C.

Early Taste of Spring Continues, Winter Storm Looms on Horizon

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Winnipeg will see March will kick off the same way February ends: with high temperatures near 0°C bringing an early taste of spring to the region.

The mild weather Winnipeg has seen over the past couple days isn’t going anywhere. A mild Pacific flow will continue through the rest of the work week, bringing near-freezing highs to the region. Tonight and Thursday night will both see overnight lows near -10°C.

GDPS 2m Temperature Anomaly valid 00Z Friday March 2, 2018
Much of Manitoba will see above-normal temperatures on Thursday, shown here by the areas shaded red

Winnipeg will see plenty of sun as well. A few clouds will move through the Red River Valley today, but then mainly sunny skies will be in place through Thursday and much of Friday. Some cloud will begin moving into the region late Friday ahead of a low pressure complex organizing in the United States. The cloud cover will keep Friday night’s low warmer, only dipping down to around -3°C.

Long Range Outlook – Winter Storm Brewing

The weather will turn more unsettled for the weekend as a series of low pressure systems move through the region. Mild temperatures will continue in Winnipeg, but cloudy skies will persist through the weekend into the first half of next week.

There will be a couple of chances for snow – or even a rain shower – through the weekend. Come Sunday night through Monday, what may end up as the biggest storm thus far in the 2017/18 winter season moves through. While it’s too early to put much trust in any of the forecasts, some guidance suggests Winnipeg and the Red River Valley may see over 25 cm of snow with this storm system.

GDPS 850mb Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Monday March 5, 2018
A complex, slow-moving low pressure system may bring Winnipeg the biggest winter storm of the 2017/18 season on Sunday night into Monday.

For now, just keep it in mind that there is the chance for a major snow storm to start next week. If you have travel plans involving driving on Monday, consider contingency plans just in case.

Until then, enjoy the beautiful sunshine and mild temperatures!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -5°C while the seasonal overnight low is -15°C.

Windy Saturday Brings Seasonal Temperatures Back

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Winnipeg will see a mixed bag of conditions over the coming days as seasonal temperatures build back into southern Manitoba.

Winnipeg will finally move towards seasonal temperatures as the icy grip of Arctic air is shown the door by milder Pacific air spreading eastwards across the Prairies. To round out the work week, Winnipeg will see mainly sunny skies once a bit of morning cloud moves out of the region. Temperatures will climb to around -8°C, just a tad warmer than it was yesterday. Skies should remain mainly clear tonight with temperatures dipping down to around -17°C.

Warmer air will push into the region for Saturday, but it will come with those wonderful southerly winds that Winnipeg so often receives when warmer weather is on the way. Temperatures will climb to a high near -5°C, but those southerly winds will strengthen to 30 to 40 km/h with gusts up to 60 km/h by Saturday afternoon. Skies will start off sunny, but by mid- to late-afternoon, cloud will begin moving into the region from the south. The wind will taper off through the evening as skies continue to cloud over. Some light snow will move into southern Manitoba overnight, but nothing more than a skiff is expected. Besides bringing the snow, the cloudy skies will help temperatures remain a bit milder with a low near -11°C expected in Winnipeg.

RDPS Forecast 24hr. QPF valid 12Z Sunday February 25, 2018
Winnipeg will see some light snow move through the area on Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Winnipeg will see cloudy skies on Sunday with any remaining light snow tapering off in the morning. Winds will be much lighter, and temperatures will climb to a high near -4°C. Winnipeg may see some clear breaks on Sunday night, but more cloud will begin pushing in early Monday morning as another low pressure system moves into the region.

Long Range Outlook

Milder temperatures look like they’re here to stay, with seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures remaining in place for much of next week. Precipitation still looks minimal, though, with no significant snow expected in the coming week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -6°C while the seasonal overnight low is -16°C.

Arctic Chill On Monday Gives Way to Warming Trend

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After a cool Monday, Winnipeg will undergo a slow and steady climb back towards seasonal temperatures under variable cloudiness.

Today will be the coolest day of the upcoming week in Winnipeg as an Arctic ridge moves through the region, bringing high temperatures -17°C. Winds will remain light through the day, but Winnipeg will see clouds work in through the afternoon from the south as a storm moving through the Northern Plains spreads clouds well northwards of its path. Temperatures should dip to a cool low near -22°C tonight with a fair amount of cloud remaining over the city.

Cloudy skies will remain over the city on Tuesday as a weak warm front pushes into the region from the northwest. Temperatures will be quite a bit milder than Monday with highs forecast to climb to around -12°C with light northerly winds continuing. We may see a bit of non-accumulating light snow through the day as temperatures hover right in a favourable zone for spontaneous snowflake creation, but nothing particularly notable is expected. Temperatures will dip to a low near -21°C on Tuesday night under clearing skies and a light west-southwest wind.

RDPS 12hr. QPF Forecast valid 00Z Wednesday February 21, 2018
Much of the Red River Valley will see the chance for some non-accumulating light snow on Tuesday

Wednesday looks to bring the sun back to Winnipeg with just a few clouds around as another low pressure system tracks through central Manitoba. Temperatures will continue trending warmer with a high near -10°C and winds will continue out of the southwest at 10 to 20 km/h. Skies should remain mainly clear on Wednesday night with a low near -17°C

Long Range Outlook

It’s finally looking as if the persistent polar vortex near Southampton Island in Hudson Bay that has resulted in steady north-northwesterly flow over much of the Prairies – and associated cold air outbreaks – is finally going to be shifting off to the east and weakening this week.

This will allow temperatures to moderate from the well below-seasonal values Winnipeg has seen for so much of February; by the end of the week, high temperatures may climb slightly above-seasonal! The warm weather won’t be coming with much of a risk for precipitation either, so all in all, it looks like a gradual moderating trend towards seasonal to slightly above-seasonal temperatures!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -7°C while the seasonal overnight low is -17°C.