Tag: Snow

Cool Temperatures Short-Lived With Seasonal Conditions Set To Return

Brad Leave a comment

The unseasonably cold temperatures and downright unpleasant winds that have characterized the conditions behind a Colorado Low moving through Ontario will be short-lived as seasonal temperatures push eastwards into Manitoba for the second half of the week.

It will be a cold day in Winnipeg today as an Arctic ridge pushes into southern Manitoba. Those nasty northwesterly winds will persist through this morning, but finally begin to diminish through the afternoon. Temperatures will reach a high of only -11°C or so, well below the seasonal -8°C. There will be some cloud about in the morning, but by the afternoon skies should clear out leaving Winnipeg with plenty of sunshine. Winds will taper off tonight as the Arctic ridge moves over the region and temperatures dip to a very chilly low near -18°C. Cloud cover will begin working into the region late overnight from the north as weak upper-level disturbance slumps southwards into Manitoba.

Thursday will bring mainly cloudy skies to Winnipeg and the Red River Valley with temperatures climbing to a more seasonal high near -7°C. No organized snow is expected with this system, but temperature profiles seem close enough to just right that patches of non-accumulating light snow may be possible. Winds will be light through the day as well, making for a relatively pleasant early-December day. Cloudy skies will remain over the area on Thursday night as temperatures head to a low near -11°C.

A warm front will push through Winnipeg early Thursday morning, bringing seasonal temperatures back to the region.

Friday will bring more cloud to Winnipeg as yet another upper-level disturbance dives southwards over the Prairies. It will nudge the warmer air slightly further east, pushing daytime highs in the Red River Valley up to around -5°C. As it moves through, there will be a good chance for some light snow, but it isn’t expected to accumulate much at this point. Winds will remain relatively light until a cold front swings through in the evening, after which they’ll pick up out of the north-northwest to around 30 gusting 50 km/h. Temperatures will dip to a low near -13°C on Friday night.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will continue above-seasonal through the weekend, with a chance of a potent push of warm air on Sunday that may bring near-freezing temperatures and some light snow, then the cold air collapses southwards once again, temperatures back to seasonal to below-seasonal for the start of next week. Light snow is possible on Sunday and several days next week, but no significant storms or accumulations are on the horizon.

Enjoy the return to more seasonal temperatures; they should – combined with calmer winds – make it much easier to get out and enjoy the winter weather!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -8°C while the seasonal overnight low is -17°C.

Colorado Low Brings Snow, Wind, and Colder Temperatures

Brad Leave a comment

Southern Manitoba will be under the influence of a potent Colorado Low moving out of Minnesota into northwestern Ontario, bringing snow, strong winds, and colder temperatures to the region.

It’s been a bit of a path to get here, but Winnipeg will finally see some snow today, only 12 hours later than originally expected. Snow will blossom across the region early this morning — briefly mixed with freezing rain early this morning — and slowly push eastwards through the day, tapering off to light snow this evening. Snowfall totals will vary significantly across the Red River Valley, with as little as 2 or 3 cm expected over the western edge of the valley, and nearly 10 cm over the southeastern corner. Here in Winnipeg, 3-5 cm is most likely by the evening.

A Colorado Low will bring anywhere from 2 to 15 *cm* of snow to southern Manitoba today.

As the snow pushes eastwards this afternoon, it will be replaced by strong northwesterly winds of 40 to 50 km/h with gusts up to 70 km/h. These winds will combine with the fresh snow to produce areas of poor visibility in blowing snow. If you must travel this evening, be sure to check highway conditions, carry a survival kit, and give yourself plenty of extra time.

The strong winds will continue through Monday night and much of Tuesday.

These strong northwesterly winds will usher in a much cooler air mass and will seem a bit of a shock given the mild temperatures that have been in place the past weeks. Temperatures in Winnipeg will drop from -3°C this morning to around -7°C this evening, then continue towards a low near -12°C tonight. Temperatures will struggle to recover on Tuesday with a high of only around -10°C. As the strong winds begin to ease on Tuesday evening, temperatures will head towards an overnight low near -5°C.

GDPS Forecast Surface Temperature valid 06Z Thursday December 7, 2017
Wednesday night will bring very cool temperatures to the Red River Valley with overnight lows approaching -20°C

On Wednesday, the cloud cover should finally clear out of the region as temperatures head to a high near -11°C. Winds will continue out of the northwest at 20 to 30 km/h. An Arctic ridge will then move in on Wednesday night, turning winds light and sending overnight lows down to around -18°C.

Long Range Outlook

The remainder of the week will continue with sesaonal to below-seasonaltemperatures, with more cloud pushing back into the region. The coming weekend looks to bring variable cloud and near-seasonal temperatures before colder temperatures return next week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -8°C while the seasonal overnight low is -17°C.

Forecast Update: Complicated System To Bring Snow, Lead to Windier, Colder Conditions

Brad Leave a comment

As we mentioned in Friday’s forecast post, a major change in the weather is on the way as a potent low pressure system develops in the United States. What Winnipeg can expect to see has become more clear over the past 24 hours, and it looks like the city will see a fresh coat of snow before strong northwesterly winds plunge temperatures well below the values seen over the past week.

Winnipeg will see skies cloud over through the day today, thickening up as the low pressure system in the American Plains spreads cloud northeastwards. Temperatures will reach a high near -1 or 0°C with light winds.

Heading into the evening, snow will spread eastwards across southern Manitoba, slowly intensifying as it pushes towards the Ontario border. For Winnipeg and the Red River Valley, snow will begin in earnest sometime late in the evening and persist for around 6 hours before easing so light snow or flurries. Snowfall amounts will likely end up between 4 and 8 cm…assuming nothing goes to awry with the forecast. To that end, there’s a little bit of disagreement in how the models handle the precipitation; some support it all as a single blob that moves through the region, but others have some along a narrow secondary band that dies out towards the Red River Valley, and more associated with the low pressure system as it lifts northwards out of the United States. Should that second outcome occur, Winnipeg would likely see less snow overall. The other potential problem, particularly for areas close to the US border, is that slightly above-zero temperatures may end up resulting in part of the precipitation falling as rain, which would also [obviously] lead to reduced snowfall amounts.

Monday will bring strengthening northwesterly winds to Winnipeg as colder air begins pushing into the region on the back-side of the low. By Monday afternoon, Winnipeg will see winds of 40-50 km/h out the northwest as temperatures fall towards -6°C. The strong winds will combine with the fresh snow, and possibly some still falling light snow, to produce areas blowing snow.

Much cooler weather is on the way for the remainder of the week, with daytime highs falling into the -10 to -15°C range. We’ll have more details on the upcoming week bring and earlier at the usual time on Monday morning! And stay tuned to our Facebook and Twitter feeds this evening for updates as this system finally begins taking shape!

Another Mild and Windy Day Gives Way to More Cloud And Unsettled Conditions

Brad 1 Comment

Mild weather will remain in place for Winnipeg and the Red River Valley, but a pair of low pressure systems will bring plenty of cloud, wind, and some wet weather over the next few days. Better to make the best of it, though, as it’s increasingly looking like Winnipeg may plunge into the winter deep freeze by the end of next week!

Today will bring cloudy skies to Winnipeg as a low pressure system moves into the province from Saskatchewan. Ahead of the low, strong southerly winds of 40-50 km/h with gusts up to 60-70 km/h will develop in the Red River Valley. The winds will increase through the morning, peak midday, then begin to subside through the afternoon. Temperatures will climb to a high near +3°C once the winds ease, but by late afternoon the chance for snow will pick up as a trough swings through the Red River Valley. There’s a chance that early on, precipitation may fall as rain showers instead of snow, but with wet bulb temperatures expected to remain below 0°C, it should switch over to snow as soon as it strengthens to any moderate intensity. The snow will taper off late in the evening, leaving behind a soggy mess as much of it melts on contact. Temperatures will then head to a low near -3°C with northwesterly winds 40 gusting to 60 km/h picking up mid-evening and tapering off overnight.

RDPS Forecast 12hr. QPF valid 06Z Thursday November 30, 2017
A large swath of rain showers and snow will spread across southern Manitoba today

Thursday will bring cloudy skies for much of the day, although some sun might be seen late in the day as clouds begin to clear out late in the afternoon. Winds will be light and gradually shift to southerly through the day as temperatures climb to a high near +1°C. As mentioned before, skies will clear out for Thursday night, leaving Winnipeg with starry skies as temperatures head to a low near -5°C with light winds.

Friday will be another mostly cloudy day as overcast skies move back into the region through the morning. Temperatures will climb to a high near +1°C again with continued southerly winds at 10-20 km/h. Another disturbance tracking across the region will bring a mix of rain changing to snow to Winnipeg sometime in the morning and ending by mid-afternoon. W

Temperatures will dip to a low near -5°C under partly cloudy skies on Friday night.

Long Range Outlook

Mild temperatures will continue through the weekend under variable cloudiness, but a large-scale pattern change next week looks to put the wheels in motion towards an outbreak of Arctic air that would plunge much of central and eastern Canada into a period of below-normal temperatures.

GPDS Forecast 850mb Temperature Anomaly valid 12Z Friday December 8, 2017
The GDPS model is one of the growing consensus that well below-normal temperatures will be in place over the region by the end of next week

Models have growing consensus that over the coming week, a strong upper-level ridge will develop, and remain anchored, over British Columbia. In response to that ridge, a deep upper-level trough is expected to develop in response over eastern Canada, bringing a northwesterly flow to the Prairies that would set up the Arctic pipeline, allowing much colder air to spill southwards. With the growing consensus in the models, it seems like it would be prudent to enjoy the mild weather as much as possible…a more traditional Winnipeg winter may be looming on the horizon.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -6°C while the seasonal overnight low is -15°C.