Tag: Snow

Flurries Usher in Arctic Chill, Seasonal Temperatures Return for the Weekend

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A few flurries today will mark the arrival of another shot of colder temperatures as an approaching upper-level trough keeps Arctic air entrenched over the region. Improvement is on the horizon, with near-seasonal temperatures moving back into the region on the weekend.

Today will bring cloudy skies and flurries to much of the Red River Valley as colder Arctic air slumps southwards in the wake of a cold front that moved through on Tuesday evening. The flurries will be relatively light with little accumulations, however a light northerly flow and very cool temperatures aloft will support some lake-effect snow off of Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg through the day and into the evening.

During the day, the snow from Lake Manitoba will primarily affect regions south of the lake between Oakville and Austin, including Portage la Prairie. Heading into the evening, winds shift more to the west-northwest, and while the snow will weaken with less favourable fetch, it’s likely that light snow coming off the lake will shift eastwards towards Winnipeg.

Lake Winnipeg will primarily see moderate flurries off the North Basin moving through the Narrows and adjacent areas and eastwards into Berens River for much of the next 24 hours. The South Basin will produce some lighter snow that will spread southwards off the lake, shifting southeast towards Pinawa and then eastwards towards Bisset as winds swing around in the evening.

RDPS Forecast 24hr. QPF valid 12Z Thursday November 9, 2017
Flurries are expected across much of southern Manitoba, with enhanced snow in the lee of the lakes

The widespread snow will exit the province by late Wednesday afternoon with lake-effect flurries from Lake Manitoba and the south basin of Lake Winnipeg persisting into Thursday morning.

Temperatures will climb to a high near -8°C with light northwesterly winds. Winnipeg will see a continued chance of flurries on Thursday night with a low near -18°C.1

Thursday will be a very cool day with high temperatures across the Red River Valley climbing to just-10 or -9°C. Winds will remain light with the only clouds in the region those that move off of the lakes. Skies should be clear heading into Thursday night with temperatures plummeting to a low near -20°C.2 Cloud will begin to move into the region late Thursday night/early Friday morning ahead of a warm front approaching the region.

GDPS Forecast 24hr. Snowfall at 10:1 SLR valid 12Z Saturday November 11, 2017
Accumulating snow is expected across portions of southern Manitoba on Friday

Friday will bring a weather system that will trigger a change in the large-scale weather pattern, shunting the cold air out of the region and sending Winnipeg back towards seasonal temperatures. Expect cloudy skies with light snow building into the region as the warm front moves through. Temperatures will climb to a high near -6°C, but breezy southerly winds strengthening to 40 gusting 60 km/h will make it feel much cooler as wind chill values dip to around -15. Friday night will continue cloudy with a slight chance of light snow as temperatures remain steady around -6°C. Winds will gradually taper off by Saturday morning.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the weekend, it looks like Winnipeg will move into a variably cloudy and dry pattern, with temperatures returning towards seasonal values. Saturday and Sunday both look to bring highs in the -2 to -4°C range, then highs are expected to climb to the freezing mark for the start of next week. Overnight lows will be follow suit, climbing back into the -8 to -4°C range.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently +1°C while the seasonal overnight low is -7°C.

  1. Further to the south in the Red River Valley, away from the lakes, temperatures could drop into the -20 to -22°C range overnight. ↩
  2. Again, overnight lows could drop even colder further south of Winnipeg in the Red River Valley, into the -22 to -25°C range. ↩

Cool With Light Snow Mid-Week

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Arctic air will continue to build southward over the eastern Prairies in the coming days, bringing below-seasonal temperatures, variable cloudiness, and on Wednesday, some light snow.

Cloud will build into Winnipeg from the northwest later today as a cold front slumps southwards out of northern Manitoba, possibly bringing the occasional snowflake, but nothing that resembles accumulating snow. Temperatures remain cool with a high near -6°C, almost 9°C below seasonal for this time of year. Winds will continue out of the west at around 15 to 20 km/h through the day today. Skies should clear out overnight as temperatures head to a chilly low near -17°C. Winds will remain out of the west at 10 to 15 km/h.

Tuesday will see morning sun transition to mixed skies as another disturbance approaches from the northern Prairies. Temperatures will be similar to Monday with highs near -6°C again, but Tuesday night will be considerably warmer with lows near -9°C courtesy overcast skies that will move into the region. Winds will shift from west to northwest on Tuesday night, setting the stage for cooler air to move in on Wednesday.

Some light snow is expected across much of southern Manitoba on Wednesday

Expect cloudy skies on Wednesday with some light snow and a cool high near -8C. Those northwesterly winds will likely fire up the lake-effect snow once again, enhancing the flurries to the south of Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg.

Expect the clouds to persist much of Wednesday night with temperatures dropping to a low near -16°C.

Long Range Outlook

The remainder of the week will continue to bring mixed skies with the occasional chance for flurries. By Saturday, temperatures should begin to climb back towards the freezing mark, with near-seasonal temperatures expected to start next week!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 1°C while the seasonal overnight low is -7°C.

Forecast Update: Snowy Saturday Ahead

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Environment Canada has issued a heavy snowfall warning for Winnipeg:

Southern Manitoba Wnaring Map – 4:00PM Friday November 3, 2017
Environment and Climate Change Canada has issued a snowfall warning for all of Southern Manitoba

Snowfall, with total amounts of 10 to 15 cm is expected.

Moderate to heavy snow will spread into southern Manitoba Friday night into Saturday morning. Approximately 10 to 15 centimetres is expected by the time snow begins to ease Saturday evening, with locally higher amounts where terrain features may enhance snowfall intensity.

Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions. Prepare for quickly changing and deteriorating travel conditions. Rapidly accumulating snow could make travel difficult over some locations. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. If visibility is reduced while driving, slow down, watch for tail lights ahead, and be prepared to stop.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an e-mail to ec.storm.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #MBstorm.

As we mentioned in our forecast this morning, this system has been one that forecast models have had a trouble getting a handle on, however this morning’s 12Z runs have moved towards a consensus (save for the GFS, which seems like a bit of a southern-biased outlier for Saskatchewan).

That said, it looks very likely that not only Winnipeg, but the entirety of southern Manitoba will see a blanket of snow tomorrow as this incoming system produces 10 to 15 cm of snow in most places. Some areas, like the far southwest corner, may end up just hitting the 10 cm mark, while upslope-enhanced areas such as the Riding Mountains may see closer to 15 to 25 cm of snow.

The RDPS shows a wide swath of 10 to 13 cm of snow by Saturday evening

With daytime highs near 0°C in Winnipeg, it will also likely be a fairly heavy snow — good for snowmen! – and by the time all is said and done, it’s likely that there is around 10 to 13 cm of new snow on non-road surfaces. Assuming the roads are treated properly, expect a slushy mess that freezes on Saturday night into Sunday.

Highway conditions will likely deteriorate fairly quickly Saturday morning as well, so if you need to travel be sure to give yourself extra time, drive safely, and carry an emergency car kit.

The snow will taper off on Saturday evening, followed by gusty westerly winds developing overnight into Sunday morning. These breezy winds of around 30 gusting to 50 km/hmay produce local areas of blowing snow, so again drive with care.

You can refer back to our Friday morning forecast for details on the remainder of the weekend.

After A Failed First Attempt, Winter Arrives Saturday

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg may have managed to dodge the snow on Wednesday, but another disturbance moving through Saturday will blanket the city in snow, then be followed up by the first winter-like cold snap of the season.

Today will be a fairly benign day in Winnipeg as the disturbance that will bring snow to the region tomorrow develops over Montana and Saskatchewan. Before that arrives, the region will see a mix of sun and cloud with temperatures climbing back to a high near -2°C and light winds.

Clouds thicken up tonight as the inverted trough1 that will bring snow to the region advances across Saskatchewan. Expect temperatures to dip to a low near -5°C early before climbing back towards around -3°C by morning with winds picking up out of the east to around 20 km/h. Some light snow may move into the Red River Valley late overnight, but if this system ends up a bit slower then the snow may hold off until Saturday morning.

NAM Forecast Precipitation valid 12Z Saturday November 4 to 06Z Sunday November 5, 2017
Moderate snow will spread into the Red River Valley Saturday morning and persist through the day

Saturday will bring snow to much of southern Manitoba as an inverted trough moves across the province. The snow will spread from southwest of northeast through the day, with the heaviest snow in the Red River Valley expected midday into the afternoon. The snow will taper off from west to east, beginning in the late afternoon over the southwest, then through the evening in the Red River Valley, and after midnight in the southeast. Between 5 and 10 cm of snow will likely accumulate across much of southern Manitoba, with the chance for localized pockets of slightly higher amounts, by the time the snow tapers off.2

RDPS Forecast 2m Temperature valid 00Z Sunday November 5, 2017
Temperatures will climb to or just above the freezing mark across muhc of south-central and southeastern Manitoba on Saturday afternoon

Aside from the snow, Saturday will bring more mild temperatures to Winnipeg with highs climbing to or just above 0°C. Winds will gradually ease through the day, but then pick up to 20 to 30 km/h out of the northwest overnight, making some blowing snow possible in open areas. Temperatures will dip down to a low near -4°C on Saturday night.

Sunday will bring mainly cloudy skies to Winnipeg, but temperatures will barely recover from the overnight low, reaching a high of just -2 or -3°C as northwesterly winds usher cooler air into the region ahead of an approaching Arctic high. Sunday night will be quite cool with lows sinking to near -13°C as skies clear out.

Long Range Outlook

In the wake of Saturday’s disturbance, cooler temperatures will flood into the Prairies as a persistent northwesterly flow aloft taps into Arctic air. Temperatures will remain well below-normal for much of next week, save for a brief reprieve in the latter half of the week when another low pressure system moves through, but then the cold temperatures surge back into the region. So bundle up and get your winter clothes out, you’ll be needing them!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 3°C while the seasonal overnight low is -6°C.

  1. An inverted trough is a trough of low pressure that extends northwards from a low pressure system. ↩
  2. While model agreement is increasing, there’s still a fair amount of uncertainty with this system and we may update our snowfall forecast later today if needed. ↩