Tag: Snow

Near-Seasonal Temperatures With a Bit of Light Snow on the Way

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Seasonal March warmth will stick around in Wininpeg this week, but a passing low pressure system will clip the province tonight and bring some fresh snow to the region.

ECMWF 24-hr. Snow Accumulation Forecast valid 18Z Wednesday March 22, 2023
Southern Manitoba will be clipped by a passing low pressure system on Tuesday night; accumulating snow will fall through most of the Red River Valley and southeastern corner of the province.

An upper ridge over the west coast that has maintained downstream roughing over the eastern Prairies has been the driver behind the cooler temperatures across southern Manitoba over the last several days. Fortunately for us, this feature has begun to collapse and will allow milder air to push eastwards across the Prairies.

Before that happens, though, a compact low pressure system will impact the region tonight. It will spread snow through North Dakota today, then into Southern Manitoba and Minnesota tonight. Much of the heaviest accumulations will remain south of the border, but accumulating snow will still fall across the region. Winnipeg will likely see 2–4 cm of snow by Wednesday morning while amounts increase into the 5–10 cm range to the southeast. The heaviest swath of snow, likely 10–15 cm will from eastern North Dakota into the Kenora, ON region.

Fortunately, winds will stay fairly light through the event, snow blowing snow won’t be too big an issue overnight into tomorrow.

Aside from tonight’s snow, the weather will be quite pleasant with sunny to mixed skies and light winds through much of the week. Daytime highs will hover just on the cold side of freezing, while overnight lows will have a bit more variability. Tuesday night will likely be the coldest night of the week as clear skies combine with the fresh snow cover to drive lows into the -15 to -20 °C range. Other nights this week will likely see low near -10 °C as warmer air begins moving into the region.

Long Range Outlook

A low pressure system passing to the north will bring some cloud and a chance of flurries to the region on Friday into Saturday, then sunshine should return to end the weekend and kick off next week. Temperatures may cool slightly on the back-side of that system, but near-seasonal temperatures should return by mid-week.

And like we’ve mentioned before, daytime highs will vary depending where you find yourself in Winnipeg; more urban parts of the city, especially those close to the downtown core, will likely find plenty of melting and highs near or even a touch above freezing in the coming days as more of the dark surfaces are exposed and able to absorb heat from the strengthening spring sun.

Enjoy the beautiful weather ahead!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is +1 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -9 °C.

Snow Finally Arrives in Winnipeg

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After a few dud events over the region snow is finally on its way to the Red River Valley, but exact amounts are still uncertain.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 18Z Saturday March 11, 2023
A stubborn Arctic High will remain entrenched over northern Manitoba as the next disturbance brings moderate easterly winds to the Red River Valley.

It’s been a complex weather situation over the Red River Valley over the past few days. The snow we earlier this week did develop as expected, and in fact, over the past few days was visible on RADAR as it streamed northwards over the region. But a stubborn Arctic High entrenched over northern Manitoba complicated things substantially.

This high was pumping copious amounts of cool, dry air into the northerly flow over the region which was pushed underneath the snow lifting northwards. This dry air ended up evaporating most of the snow before it managed to reach the surface. As a result, we saw little to no snow through the region over the past few days despite it falling a few thousand feet above ground.

This setup continues today, with cloudy skies and a slight chance of flurries. Temperatures will reach a high near -2 °C this afternoon, the d up down into the -5 to -10 °C range tonight.

The third system we talked about in our last forecast is now developing in the west and will begin bringing snow to Saskatchewan tonight and then spread across Manitoba on Saturday. The snow will begin in Winnipeg mid- to late-morning on Saturday and persist to the evening before beginning to ease. Moderate easterly winds up to 40 gusting 60 km/h will accompany the snow, producing blowing snow across the region in the afternoon.

There is still some uncertainty with snowfall totals. Like with the previous systems, weather models have struggled to fully capture the impact of the Arctic High entrenched over the Northern Prairies. As a result, model runs have been slowly shifting the expected track of this system further south over the past few days, reducing the amount of snow over many parts of the Prairies. But the models do seem to be stabilizing their tracks, and it looks reasonable at this point that Winnipeg will likely see 5 to 10 cm of snow with this system.

ECMWF Accumulated Snowfall Forecast valid 00Z Friday March 10, 2023 to 18Z Sunday March 12, 2023
The ECMWF snowfall forecasts have begun to stabilize with 5 to 10 cm of snow for Winnipeg and higher amounts to the south and west.

Further south, snowfall totals could rise quickly, especially along the western escarpment where snow will be enhanced by the persistent easterly winds. Heading southwards through the Red River Valley, accumulations will likely increase into the 10 to 20 cm range. The higher snowfall amounts coupled with the strong winds could result in very poor travel conditions, particularly near the International Border, on Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will hover around -6 °C on Saturday, then dip down close to -10 °C on Saturday night.

Some light snow will linger through Saturday night and then taper off on Sunday. Temperatures will linger in the -5 to -10 °C range through the day under cloudy skies, then dip to a low in the -15 to -20 °C range overnight as skies clear.

Long Range Outlook

In the wake of this system, skies should clear as cooler air floods into the region. Seasonably cool temperatures will move into the region to start the week with highs generally in the -5 to -10 °C range.

Another disturbance will move into the region mid-week and could bring some more accumulating snow to the area along with warmer seasonal temperatures.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -2 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -12 °C.

Snowier Weather on the Way

Brad Leave a comment

After an extended period of benign weather, it looks like its going to get busier over southern Manitoba. A trio of disturbances are poised to bring snow to the region back-to-back-to-back over the next few days.

GDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 12Z Thursday March 9, 2023
An inverted trough is forecast to develop and linger over the Red River Valley, bringing a prolonged period of light snowfall.

Before it all begins, though, Winnipeg will see a cool but pleasant day. Temperatures will climb close to the -10 °C mark with increasing cloud cover through the day. Winds won’t be too bad, either, persisting out of the northeast near 20 km/h. The region will see cloudy skies tonight with a low in the mid-minus teens.

The action begins tomorrow in what is, at the end of the day, a bit of a complicated setup.

The simplest explanation of what’s going to happen over the next few days is this. The complex evolution of a multi-circulation vortex over western Canada will result in the development of an inverted trough over southern Manitoba on Wednesday. This feature will bring light snow northwards out of the U.S. into the region through the day. The inverted trough will linger over the region while another disturbance passing through the U.S. pushes more moisture northwards on Thursday. As it moves into the trough, more light snow will fall over southern Manitoba into Friday. Following that, a clipper system will develop over southern Alberta on Saturday morning and race eastwards across the southern Prairies. This will bring another organized band of snow — perhaps the heaviest of them all — to the Red River Valley on Sunday.

Between each of these features, lingering flurries or light snow will likely persist across the region.

Snowfall totals by Sunday night will be highly variable across the region with amounts of 10 to 25 cm possible in Winnipeg across the three events. Localized accumulations could end up being higher, though, and of most concern will be areas near the western escarpment of the Red River Valley. The persistent upslope flow on the western side of the inverted trough will enhance snowfall near the escarpment. In those areas, there is the potential for as much as 20 to 40 cm of snow over the next several days.

The snow won’t all fall at once; it will be through multiple events — maybe none of which are particularly bad. But the prolonged nature of the event will mean that it will slowly pile up across the region.

Temperatures will be pleasant, though as daytime highs warm up into the near-seasonal -5 to 0 °C range with overnight lows of -5 to -10 °C.

This is a complex weather setup consisting of multiple events over several days. The forecast may change. One of the biggest uncertainties will be how well the inverted trough is able to establish with a strong Arctic High over the northern Prairies and how much dry air will be ingested from it and diminish snowfall amounts. But be sure to keep an eye on the updated ECCC forecasts and for any alerts that may be issued such as special weather statements or snowfall warnings in the coming days.

Long Range Outlook

Near-seasonal temperatures will continue next week with a bit of sun likely showing up to start the week. Some more flurries look possible mid-week as temperatures nudge warmer.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -3 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -13 °C.

Milder Weather Returns for the Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg will see milder weather return today and near-seasonal conditions this weekend. Conditions will turn next week, though, as bitterly cold Arctic air descends into the Prairies.

RDPS Forecast 2m Temperature valid 21Z Friday February 17, 2022
Relatively mild conditions will move into the Red River Valley today with daytime highs near the freezing mark.

A low pressure system crossing the northern Prairies has brought a stiff southerly wind and warming temperatures to southern Manitoba today. With southerlies up near 40 gusting 60 km/h, temperatures rose through the night and will continue through the morning. The city should see a high near the freezing mark this afternoon as winds ease and turn westerly-northwest.

The region will see mixed skies today and there’s a slight chance of some light snow. Most of the precipitation will likely stay well north of Winnipeg, but some scattered areas of light snow might hang on along the trough as it moves through. Even if any precipitation does make it into the Red River Valley, no notable accumulation is likely.

A lingering chance of flurries will linger into the night as temperatures dip into the -10 to -15 °C range. The cloud cover should break up a bit overnight with easing winds.

On Saturday, more cloud will move back into the region as another weak low pushes into the region. There will be a slight chance of flurries through the day as temperatures rebound back to a high near -5 °C.

A band of light snow will likely work its way across the region on Saturday evening as a cold front sweeps into the region. A couple centimetres is possible as northerly winds pick up through the night. Temperatures will dip into the -10 to -15 °C range by Sunday morning.

To wrap out the weekend, northerly winds will continue as colder air pushes into the region. Some sun should reappear on Sunday with a below-seasonal high near -12 °C or so. More cloud will push into the region on Sunday night as another low approaches the region. Temperatures will be a bit cooler, though, with a low near -20 °C. Some light snow will push towards the region for Monday morning.

Long Range Outlook

Winnipeg will likely see some light snow to start off next week. The high temperature will climb back to around -10 °C, but a cold front sweeping through later in the day will usher in northerly winds that bring a substantial change to the region.

Skies will clear as the system leaves on Monday night, and much colder weather will move into the region in its wake. Lows will dip into the -25 to -30 °C on Monday night. Heading into the rest of the week, daytime highs will drop to close to -20 °C with some -30 °C lows possible much of the week. 

Temperatures will begin to moderate slightly on Friday, with a more marked push towards seasonal values beginning next weekend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -8 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -18 °C.