The Red River Valley will bask once again in above-normal temperatures as another shot of warm air pushes up from the south. We’ll have mixed skies and a somewhat stiff southerly wind accompanying the warmer temperatures, but it should still be fairly pleasant for mid-November nonetheless.

Today

Friday

7°C / -1°C
A mixed sky; mild and windy.

We’ll see mixed skies develop today with some patchy fog throughout the Red River Valley this morning which means, especially when combined with some ice on the roads, drivers – especially highway driving – should take care if travelling through the earlier hours of the morning. Winds will increase to 30–50km/h out of the south by midday as the warmer air pushes in. Temperatures will climb to around 6–7°C, perhaps a degree higher if the clouds break up sooner than later, for a daytime high some 10°C above normal! More cloud will roll in tonight as another disturbance begins pushing into Central Manitoba. A band of snow will set up through the Parkland region eastwards through the northern Interlake, but here in the Red River Valley we’ll just see increasing cloud through the night as we drop to a low of only around –1°C.

The Weekend

Saturday

4°C / -3°C
Cloudy & mild.

Saturday will bring more mild weather despite having mostly cloudy skies through the day. Precipitation is unlikely for us; at this point it appears that everything or to our east. If the entire setup ends up a little further west, we might see a very slight risk of a shower, but as I said, I think that’s quite unlikely. Other than that, Saturday will be quite an uneventful day here in Winnipeg. Winds will be light as we sit in the middle of a large surface trough stationed over the area.

Sunday

↘ -5°C / -12°C
A mix of sun and cloud.

Sunday will see cooler air to our NW finally pushing back into the region. Our temperature will drop to near –5°C through the morning hours and then remain there for the rest of the day. Sunday night will see the true return of the Arctic air as temperatures dip all the way into the minus teens. Winds will be out of the northwest at 20–30km/h. No precipitation is expected. Or is it?

While most models are pushing the system that will be in the area the next few days off to our east as it intensifies on Sunday, the NAM has hinted at it not pushing off quite so quickly. In one of its solution, the system intensifies further west, developing an area of heavy snow right on top of the Red River Valley. If this solution panned out, that would mean easily 10–20cm of snow by the end of Sunday. At this point, though, I don’t quite have enough faith in the NAM to say it’s likely. There’s overwhelming consensus throughout every other Canadian and European model that things will move off to the east, to the point where this solution of the NAM can’t be looked at as anything more than an anomaly.

Sometimes these interesting little anomalies end up being the right answer though, so we’ll definitely be keeping an eye on things and providing updates if things trend towards a snowier solution on Sunday.