Although temperatures will remain well below normal, we’ll see a pleasant weekend ahead when compared to the weather we’ve had as of late.

Friday

4°C / -14°C
Sunny.

Saturday

2°C / -4°C
Increasing cloudiness in the afternoon.

Sunday

2°C / -3·C
Cloudy; rain or snow beginning midday.

The next two days will be fairly nice despite the cool air that remains entrenched over the province. Both Friday and Saturday will provide plenty of sunshine and daytime highs climbing a few degrees above zero. We should see substantial snow-melt here in Winnipeg over the next two days thanks to that increasingly strong April sun. We’ll see a cooler night tonight as winds lighten up allowing us to radiate more heat away than the past couple nights. Temperatures will likely drop into the minus teens tonight while cloud cover will keep us substantially warmer on Saturday night.

Stormy Sunday

For Sunday, an Alberta Clipper will make it’s way across Southern Manitoba and while many aspects of the system look to be relatively innocuous, it looks poised to pack a punch precipitation-wise. Snow will push into the Red River Valley midday, but the afternoon brings a particular challenge. Warm air will be advected northwards in the southeast flow ahead of this system, slowly warming the lower-levels of the atmosphere. Some indications are that preciptiation will switch over to rain in the afternoon, especially for the central Red River Valley and areas eastwards. It’s a very challenging problem and the phase of the precipitaiton will make a significant impact: around 10mm of liquid-equivalent precipitation and if it ends up falling as snow, that could quickly amount to another 6-10cm of the stuff. It’s almost a certainty that areas east of the Red River Valley will see mainly rain and areas west of the Red River Valley will see mainly snow.

At this point I think we’ll end up seeing a mix here in Winnipeg, with predominantly snow in heavier areas of precipitation. I’m not going to wager too much on accumulations right now; it’s likely that much of the snow will melt on contact with the ground as temperatures will likely remain just over the freezing mark. The system will move off overnight leaving clearing skies on Monday morning.

After a stormy start to the week over the entire Red River Valley, conditions will begin to settle down.

Monday

Monday

Snow ending
-1°C / -6°C

The snow will gradually taper off over Southern Manitoba today, with many places seeing close to 5cm in total. Wind speeds will remain high, with values of 30 to 40km/h gusting up to 50-60km/h from the north. Temperatures today will be around or just below zero in Southern Manitoba, but of course the wind will make it feel a bit cooler than that.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Tuesday

Chance of Flurries
-1°C / -7°C

Wednesday

Chance of Flurries
1°C / -8°C

Tuesday will be a benign day weather-wise, with high temperatures generally just below zero in Southern Manitoba. The wind will be relatively light and from the north, making for a fairly comfortable day.

Wednesday will be a bit warmer than Tuesday, but otherwise there won’t be an significant changes in conditions. The wind will again be light and from the north, with only a slight chance of flurries.

Long Range

The long range forecast is beginning to show some glimmers of hope. Models are beginning to show signs of a pattern change towards normal or just above normal conditions as we move towards the end of April. Unfortunately, that means we’re likely stuck with well below normal weather at least through this week…but hopefully that will change in the not too distant future.