More Cold Weather on the Way

While you may have fond memories of the 20°C weather we were having at this time last year, spring-like weather looks to be a long way off as a low pressure system deepening in Alberta will usher below-seasonal temperatures into the Prairies in it’s wake as it moves through our region tomorrow.

12hr. precipitation totals from the GDPS

12hr. precipitation accumulations from the GDPS for Thursday night as snow moves across southern Manitoba.
Wednesday

Increasing cloudiness.
-7°C / -10°C

The warm front associated with this system will move towards the Red River Valley this afternoon bringing with it increasing cloud cover and a breezy southerly wind. By late this afternoon the Red River Valley will be mainly cloudy with a southerly wind at around 30km/h and we’ll have climbed to a temperature of about –7°C. There will be a slight chance for some light flurries in Winnipeg and areas south this evening with the passage of the warm front, but meager moisture along the front combined with very dry air being advected into the RRV from the ridge of high pressure to our east will likely mean that most of the snow developed by the front will evaporate in the dry air before it hits the ground. If any organized snow does manage to develop, amounts will be insignificant as the snow will be light and short-lived. Temperatures will only drop to about –10°C under cloudy skies tonight as we sit in the warm sector before the cold front sweeps through.

Thursday & Friday

Thursday

Increasing cloud with evening flurries. 1-4cm expected.
-5°C / -15°C
Friday

Clearing.
-12°C / -22°C

Skies will briefly clear out on Thursday morning before more clouds move in midday in advance of the approaching cold front. Temperatures will climb up to around –5°C with light winds. The cold front associated with this system will begin to push it’s way through the Red River Valley in the evening and will bring some snow along with it. The snow should start a little later on Thursday evening and let up early Friday morning. Accumulations will not be very significant with only 2–4cm expected to be maximum amounts across the RRV. There’s a slight chance that some areas close to the U.S. border such as Morden, Gretna, Altona and Emerson, may see closer to 5cm as the bulk of the snowfall associated with this front is expected to fall in North Dakota and the slightly higher amounts may brush the extreme southern Red River Valley.

On Friday, we’ll see clearing skies as an Arctic ridge begins working into the Prairies. Temperatures will be quite cool for mid-March with daytime highs only hitting –12 or –13*°C, a whole 6–8°C below seasonal.

Weekend at a Glance

Saturday will be a near carbon-copy of Friday with sunny skies and a cool daytime high of around –11°C. Current indications for Sunday show a strong potential for a potent Alberta Clipper system to race along the U.S. border and spread snow through the Red River Valley by Sunday afternoon. It’s fairly early to focus too much on details, but forecasts currently indicate that 5–10cm of snow is quite possible from Winnipeg & the Trans-Canada highway south throug the RRV to the border. We’ll have more details on this system in our post later this week.

Fairly Normal Start to the Week

This week will start out with fairly typical conditions for this time of year. No significant weather is expected.

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GEM-Regional predicted precipitation on Monday

Monday

Monday
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Flurries
-4°C / -7°C

Monday will be a cloudy day, with a good chance of flurries. These flurries will be fairly disorganized in nature, but could amount to a couple of centimetres in many areas. Models do suggest that some localized areas could see close to 5cm by the time this area of snow completely dissipates on Tuesday morning. However, confidence is very low in terms of predicting which areas might be in for these slightly heavier amounts. As such, I’ll just suggest that any location in Southern Manitoba does stand a small chance of seeing close to 5cm if heavier periods of snow get stuck over the area. Temperatures on Monday will be in the low to mid minus single digits in most of Southern Manitoba. Parts of western Manitoba may get up around the freezing mark as the wind there will switch to westerly, giving a downslope flow.

Tuesday and Wedensday

Tuesday
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Mix of Sun and Cloud. Chance of Flurries.
-8°C / -15°C
Wednesday
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Mainly Sunny
-4°C / -7°C

Tuesday is a bit of a tricky forecast, albeit in a non-threatening kind of way. It looks like we may get stuck in low-level cloud and possible light flurries through the day. Alternatively, skies may clear and it could be a fairly bright and non-snowy kind of day. In either case, high temperatures will be in the mid or upper minus single digits with a breezy north-westerly wind.

Wednesday should see sunny skies return. Unfortunately, temperatures will remain stuck just below zero, as a stiff southerly flow prevents strong mixing and maximum temperature rises. As a result, we’ll see high temperatures once again in the low to mid minus single digits.

Long Range

The long-range still doesn’t look very spring-like unfortunately. Even worse than that, models continue to hint at a stormy pattern returning to southern Manitoba towards mid-March. If you’re hoping for spring, you’d better cross your fingers that a renewed storm track through our area brings rain, rather than more snow!

Seasonal Weather Continues Through Weekend

Our streak of surprisingly seasonal weather will continue through the weekend as another push of Pacific air sweeps across the Southern Prairies.

850mb Temperatures Saturday Morning

850mb temperatures valid on Saturday morning. A warm front will be pushing across Southern Manitoba ushering in mild Pacific air and a very slight chance of a dusting of snow.
Friday

Mainly sunny.
-7°C / -14°C

We’ll see a mainly sunny day today as spend a final day under the effects of a weak ridge. Temperatures will climb to around –7°C, although depending where you are in Winnipeg, temperatures could climb locally to –5 or –4°C as more and more concrete is exposed.[1] Temperatures will dip down tonight to around –15°C before clouds begin to move in ahead of the approaching warm front.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday

Mainly cloudy.
-3°C / -7°C
Saturday

Mainly cloudy.
-2°C / -7°C

Milder Pacific air will push into the Red River Valley this weekend warming temperatures up close to the 0°C mark. Both Saturday and Sunday will be mainly cloudy and other than a very slight chance on Saturday morning of a light dusting, no snow is expected. Temperatures will only drop to around –7 or –8°C both Saturday and Sunday night.

Next Week

Models seem to indicate a system diving southwards into North Dakota but differ on what to expect from it. Current indications are that no significant snowfall will be seen over Southern Manitoba, although the GEM-GLB is painting a swath of 20+cm through our region. We’ll keep a close eye on it as the weekend progresses. Even with the passage of this system, temperatures aren’t expected to drop more than a few degrees and we should continue to see daytime highs warmer than –10°C through the week.


  1. Concrete has a lower albedo than snow-covered ground. Albedo is a measure of reflectivity of a surface; because concrete’s albedo is lower, it reflects less sunlight and warms up more. This effect is very noticeable at this time of year over forested areas where temperatures can climb as much as 10°C higher than open, snow-covered areas adjacent to them.  ↩

Elsewhere in Weather News: February 23rd, 2013

Major Snowstorm Hits US Plains

Another trough digging through the southern half of the US this past week, caused trouble for travellers and residents of the Great Plains. Moist air from the Gulf of Mexico made its way north into Kansas which fell as freezing rain and snow ahead of the warm front. In the warm sector a line of thunderstorms, some severe, formed along the trough line that plowed through part of Texas and Louisiana.

850mb analysis

850mb analysis of early Wednesday morning. Heavy snow was already falling at this time. Highest accumulations circled in pink. (Source: Twisterdata)

Highway conditions quickly deteriorated after snow started falling and 150km of I-70 had to be shut down in Kansas due to many vehicle accidents. This system also prompted the closure of schools, delayed flights at airports or even closed airports such as the Kansas City airport. This same trough is to be blamed for suspending play at the PGA in Marana, Arizona where an uncommon sight could be seen; snow – about 4cm of it, covered luscious greens with cacti nearby in the background.

Snow affecting PGA

PGA golfers leaving the course while it’s snowing. (Source: AP)

Snowfall rates of 3-5cm/h were not uncommon for several hours in Kansas and Nebraska and contributed to significant snow accumulations. Highest accumulations were just below the two foot mark (60cm) in south-central Kansas with a good part of Kansas receiving over 20cm of snowfall. Most of the Southern Plains residents welcome any type of precipitation at this time however due to a severe/extreme drought is currently in place through much of the Plains (as talked about in last week’s EIWN). Last Thursday’s storm should at least make for slight improvements in the short term drought index but for longer range improvements the Plains need to get out of a persisting dry pattern.

Recent model runs show another major snowstorm, with as much as another foot of snow, Sunday night into Monday for the US Plains.