Tag: Snow

Cold and Calm

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This week will start out cold and fairly benign. Our next chance for snow will come midweek.

Warmer air will be advected into Southern Manitoba on Tuesday night

Warmer air will be advected (moved in via wind) into Southern Manitoba on Tuesday night

After another cold morning on Monday, temperatures will warm up a bit during the day. Highs on Monday afternoon should be in the low to mid minus teens, a significant improvement from Sunday’s minus twenties, but still chilly. The wind will be a bit breezy from the south on Monday, but wind chills values won’t be significantly colder than the air temperature (except in open areas). A weak low pressure system will pass through Southern Manitoba on Monday night, bringing some cloud cover along with it. As a result, temperatures on Monday night will be warmer than those on Monday morning as the cloud prevents heat from escaping from the surface. Unfortunately, temperatures won’t increase much on Tuesday, as we only see temperatures rise a few degrees from the morning lows. Our next little warm-up will begin Tuesday night as an approaching low develops a southerly flow over Southern Manitoba allowing temperatures to rise overnight.

As the low moves into (or just south of) Manitoba on Wednesday, it will bring our next chance for snow. At this point models suggest we may see as much as 5 to 10cm from this system, or perhaps as little as 2cm. Additionally, there are indications that we may see another weak system pass by on Thursday, bringing another small bought of snow. At this point it is too early to say how much snow to expect from these systems, but 5 to 10cm in total for both looks like a good initial “guess”. More information about the potential for snow will be available as the week progresses.

Another Shot of Snow on the Way

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More snow is on the way for Southern Manitoba this weekend as a low pressure system moves across the Dakotas.

NAM Precipitation Accumulations for Saturday

NAM liquid-equivalent precipitation accumulations for Saturday afternoon/evening.

It will be a cool day across the Red River Valley today as any left over cloud moves out, allowing our temperatures to slowly drop to around -16°C by this afternoon. Temperatures will dip down to around -21°C tonight before some cloud associated with the approaching low pressure system moves in.

Snow will spread into southwest Manitoba tonight and reach the Red River Valley tomorrow morning. It will last through much of the day before tapering off in the evening. One of the main challenges with this system is it’s complex nature: the feature pushing across Southern Manitoba is known as an inverted trough. These complicated features are notorious for being difficult to forecast the snowfall intensities they’ll produce.

In general, it looks like the heaviest snowfalls will be along and south of the Trans-Canada Highway, including Winnipeg, with an average of 5-10cm. There are some hints within the model outputs that some areas may see as much as 10-15cm, however it’s a little hard to say that with confidence since there is absolutely no developed reflection of how this system is taking shape right now. The area that is most likely to potentially exceed 10cm of snowfall is in extreme SE Saskatchewan into SW Manitoba, west of the RRV and south of the TCH. At this point, it looks likely that Winnipeg will see 5-8cm of snow tomorrow.

Skies will clear across Southern Manitoba tomorrow night, bringing another cold night to the Red River Valley with overnight lows dipping to -20°C. Sunday will be mainly sunny with a high of about -15°C.

Unsettled Weather Ahead

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A warm but unsettled few days are ahead as mild Pacific air surges across Southern Manitoba.

850mb Temperatures valid this evening

850mb temperatures from the NAM valid for early this evening.

Snow will taper off early this morning with a lingering chance of a stray flurry or two sticking around through much of the day across the northern half of the Red River Valley. Southerly winds will pick up through the day to 30-40*km/h as the warm front alluded to in Wednesday’s post pushes into the Valley. Temperatures will warm up quickly as the front passes with temperatures climbing to around -4 or -3°C, a few degrees warmer than the seasonal normal of about -6°C. Temperatures will remain steady through the night as that south wind continues to keep us in the warm air.

Another disturbance will pass through the northern Red River Valley tonight, however there’s some uncertainty to the areas that precipitation will fall. It currently looks like most, or all, of the precipitation will fall north of Winnipeg, focused in the Interlake region. There’s a slight chance that it will fall a bit further south, clipping Winnipeg and other areas in the northern half of the Red River Valley. If any areas in the Red River Valley are affected by this disturbance, they’ll almost certainly have to deal with freezing rain as there will a massive AFL (Above Freezing Level) just off the surface where temperatures will be nearly +10. With precipitation falling through it, the AFL will cool to 2-3°C, which is still more than warm enough to melt any snow that will be falling into it. Potentail freezing rain accumulations will be light but not insignificant at 1-2mm. Just to reiterate, the risk area for freezing rain will likely be confined to the northern half of the Red River Vally.

In addition to the weather from this disturbance, there will be the potential for freezing drizzle through the entire RRV as warm, moist air overruns our cold snowpack.

Saturday and Sunday will be cloudy days with beautifully warm temperatures for this time of the year. Daytime highs will sit right around 0°C. There will be a slight chance of non-accumulating flurries Saturday night into Sunday, otherwise no significant weather is expected. As winds lighten up, there will be the potential for fog patches through the valley in the overnight hours.

A storm system looks to move into the area on Monday morning, bringing rain or snow in the morning and snow in the afternoon. There’s still uncertainty in the track of the system and how much of the precipitation will impact the Red River Valley, so we’ll be sure to provide an update or two in the comments below through the weekend. The one thing that is certain is that this system will mark a return to more seasonal temperatures as cooler air sweeps over Southern Manitoba in it’s wake.

Warmer Weather and a Bit of Snow on The Way

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Arctic ridging will keep our temperatures low over the next couple days but rest assured, warmer weather is on the way.

12hr. QPF for Thurday Night

12hr. precipitation amounts for Thursday night. A band of snow will pass through Southern Manitoba with greatest accumulations through the Interlake region and amounts diminishing towards the U.S. border.

We’ll see another cooler than normal day today as a weak low passing through Central/Eastern Manitoba pulls more cold air southwards and allows re-enforcement of the Arctic ridge in place over the Prairies. We’ll see temperatures climb to about -10°C under a mix of sun and clouds today as breezy winds develop out of the south to 30km/h. This will make it feel a lot closer to -20 out there. There may be a slight chance of a very light flurry over Winnipeg and the Eastern Red River Valley this afternoon, however the chances are slim and if it does happen, there won’t be any significant accumulations.

Temperatures will dip towards the -18 to -20°C mark tonight under partly cloudy skies. Tomorrow we’ll see another day with highs near -10°C with a mix of sun and clouds. A warm front will push through on Thursday night, bringing with it some light snow to the Red River Valley. Lightest accumulations will be in the Southern Red River Valley with greater amounts in the Northern Red River Valley into the Interlake; in general, 2-4cm accumulations are likely. Areas south of Morris may, however, end up with little to no snowfall if the area of snow stays just a little tighter to the system centre as it passes through.

For Friday into the weekend we’ll see an unsettled pattern with bouts of light snow possible through much of the time. We’ll be under cloudy skies, but comparatively balmy temperatures will be in place with daytime highs generally around -1 to -3°C.