Enjoy the sun today and tomorrow because guess what, more rain is on the way.
June 3, 2011 Hand-Analysis of 12Z Sounding Data; Black lines are heights, coloured lines are θw values.
The broken record keeps on repeating in Winnipeg as rain gives way to sun gives way to rain with just enough time to mow the grass in between. With the system that brought numerous damaging storms across Southern Manitoba yesterday moving out, the upper flow aligns itself to place the Southern Prairies directly along the main storm track.
Convective outlook for June 3, 2011.
Little significant weather is expected in Southern Manitoba today, with only the slight chance of a thundershower or two over the Parkland areas, mainly in the northern Minnedosa and Dauphin regions. Sunny skies will prevail through the evening for areas in the Red River Valley and east before a few clouds move in overnight. Get out there and enjoy the beautiful weather!
24hr. cumulative precipitation valid 12Z Sunday 5 June from the 12Z 3 June GEMREG; my personal opinion is that it drags the precipitation a little too far south across the Prairies and that the streak through Southern Manitoba will likely be further north.
Things change by tomorrow evening, though. A new system currently moving into the Prairies from the Yukon Territory will arrive in the Southern Prairies by tomorrow afternoon and into the Red River Valley by tomorrow evening. This system will produce a lengthy trail of precipitation, however it’s north-to-south width looks fairly narrow. The exact position of this shortwave will determine where precisely the rain will fall, although all indications currently point to another 2-4mm of rain pushing through the Winnipeg/Gimli/Selkirk/Whiteshell areas with lesser amounts further south.
This precipitation looks to clear out by Monday morning, leaving behind general instability through the region due to an elongated surface trough hanging back from the main system.
The sun will then come out (hopefully) in full force Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning, before cloud moves back in on Tuesday afternoon ahead of yet another low pressure system.
12hr. cumulative precipitation valid 12Z Wed 8 June from the 12Z Fri 3 June GEM-GLB
This third system within a week will push in on Tuesday evening with a warm front positioned just south of the international border, draped west-to-east across North Daktoa. Some light rain with the risk of elevated thunderstorms riding over the warm front with push into our area by Tuesday evening before developing into a large area of moderate rain overnight. It looks to rain through Wednesday and most of Thursday night before tapering off on Thursday morning.
This system is still a ways off, so we’ll fire off another blog post in a couple days with some more details on that one. We’ll update Sunday’s system right in the comments here.
Do you have any stories or pictures from the storms yesterday? Feel free to leave them in the comments or fire a tweet off to our official Twitter account, @WeatherInThePeg.
