Fall Starts By Putting Summer to Shame

The first week of fall[1] will start off with weather that will seemingly put this summer to shame. Very warm weather is on the way with potentially record-breaking highs across Southern Manitoba on Thursday!

Wednesday
25°C / 14°C
Cloudy; clearing for a sunny afternoon

Thursday
31°C / 16°C
Mainly sunny; increasing humidity

Friday
30°C / 16°C
Mainly sunny & hot

A prominent upper-level ridge in place over the Prairies has pushed the polar jet stream far northwards and allowed warm air to spread into the Southern Prairies from the United States. As a result, significantly warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the remainder of the week in Winnipeg.

Today will start off fairly cloudy thanks to some stratus cloud that spread northwards ahead of a dissipating trough of low pressure. The cloud should clear out for the afternoon and we’ll see temperatures climb to around 24 or 25°C. The temperature will dip to around 14°C tonight under mainly clear skies.

Thursday and Friday will both bring highs just at or over the 30°C mark under mainly sunny skies. South to southeasterly winds will begin tapping into some moisture from the Central Plains of the US and we’ll see the humidity gradually rise for the latter half of the week. Dewpoint values will climb into the mid-to-upper teens, which when combined with highs near 30°C, it will feel more like the mid-to-upper 30’s. The overnight lows both nights will be in the mid-teens.

Record-Breaking Potential

We have a slight chance of breaking daily record high temperatures on both Thursday and Friday. For Thursday, September 25th the daily record high temperature is 31.1°C set in 1950. For Friday, September 26th the daily record high temperature is 31.7°C set in 1957. Both days will see temperatures climbing to or just above the 30°C mark, and if maximum heating is realized, we may get the bump we need to break one of these records!

DateHigh Temperature (2014)Record High
September 2527.7°C31.1°C (1950)
September 2630°C (Forecast)31.7°C (1952)

Cooler Weekend

The weekend is looking great, despite a cool-down that’s in store. Daytime highs will dip around 5°C or so for the weekend with both days seeing highs in the mid–20’s. Fortunately this still puts us around 8°C above normal for the time of year, so there will be little to complain about. We’ll likely see a bit more cloud that we do through the second half of the week, but all in all it will be a gorgeous weekend!


  1. …sort of. Meteorological fall started at the beginning of September, but fall as most people consider it began on September 22nd after the autumnal equinox.  ↩

Above-Normal Weather! Yes!

Above-normal weather is in store for us this week, it’s about time!

Warm weather is in store this week
Warm weather is in store this week

Monday

Monday
24°C / 11°C
Mainly sunny

Today will be one of the warmest days we’ve seen in some time, with temperatures climbing into the low to mid twenties. Skies will be mainly sunny and winds will be breezy and from the south-west. It will be a very pleasant fall day, perfect for catching up on those outdoor chores that you may have been ignoring lately.

Tuesday

Tuesday
24°C / 13°C
Mainly sunny

Tuesday will not be much different from Monday. Temperatures will once again be in the low to mid twenties with mainly sunny skies. The wind will be gusty from the south, but it will still be a nice day. Unfortunately, that gusty wind will mean there will be a few leaves to start raking up, but that’s hardly reason to start complaining.

Wednesday

Wednesday
23°C / 14°C
Mix of sun and cloud

Another good day is in store for Wednesday. Temperatures will again be in the low to mid twenties. Skies will likely range from mainly sunny to a mix of sun and cloud. There will also be a gusty south wind, just like Tuesday.

Long Range

Long range models continue to show above-normal weather for the foreseeable future. In fact, we may see temperatures climb even higher by late this week into the weekend. This may be our last taste of summer weather, so enjoy it!

A Sunny Reprieve

After being inundated with disturbance after disturbance and many areas in the province seeing a fresh 10-20cm of snow, a ridge of high pressure is building into the region and will bring a benign break from the snow at the cost of slightly cooler temperatures.

Friday
-10°C / -22°C
Clearing early & breezy.

Saturday
-9°C / ⇑ -7°C
Mainly sunny.

Sunday
+1°C / -5°C ⇑
Partly cloudy.

Skies will clear early this morning as breezing northwesterly winds – at 30-40km/h – draw in cooler air to the Red River Valley. Here in Winnipeg we’ll see a high around -9°C. Temperatures will drop into the -20’s tonight as we sit under that ridge of high pressure mentioned above. Saturday will bring mainly sunny skies with a high near -8°C and winds around 15-20km/h shifting to be out of the southwest.

Saturday night will drop to only around -10°C early in the night and then warm up to around -7°C as warmer air starts pushing into Manitoba from the west. We’ll enjoy a warm day with cloudy periods on Sunday as temperatures climb above the freezing mark to +1°C. Temperatures will fall only around -5°C thanks to cloudy skies overnight.

Those cloudy skies Sunday night will be the result of low pressure system pushing across the Prairies. It will bring the potential for some shower or flurry activity to Winnipeg on Monday, however the bulk of precipitation looks to remain further north.

Overall, a nice weekend ahead! Get out there and enjoy it!

Cold Weather is Going Nowhere Fast!

More cold weather is in store for this week – I bet that’s just what you were hoping to hear!

Wind Chill Values on Monday Morning

Monday

Monday

Increasing Cloudiness Late
-21°C / -26°C

Today will be another frigid day in Southern Manitoba. Morning temperatures will be close to the -30C mark, with the wind chill making it feel closer to -40 in many areas. Afternoon temperatures won’t moderate much, with highs only reaching into the low minus twenties. There will remain a bit of a breeze through the afternoon hours, generating a wind chill that will make it feel worse than the temperature alone would indicate.

Tuesday

Tuesday

Mainly Sunny
-20°C / -30°C

Tuesday morning will be a bit warmer than Monday morning, as some cloud cover helps to keep the temperature from bottoming out. However, it won’t be a warm day in general, as the temperature hovers near -20C and the wind chill makes it feel more like the minus thirties.

Wednesday

Wednesday

Mainly Sunny
-22°C / -25°C

Guess what, Wednesday will be cold too! Wednesday morning could be one of the coldest of the week, as temperatures drop to around or below -30C. Wind chill values on Wednesday morning will be -40 or colder, making it feel even worse. You may want to ensure your block heat is working and you’ve got an extension cord in your car, this week is not going to get much better from here…

Long Range

There is no immediate end to this cold snap in sight. Models hint that we may see a bit of a warm-up around December 15, but that is far from a certainty. At least that model forecast offers a bit of hope that we may see a break from this cold weather at some point.