Winnipeg will see summer warmth continue through the first half of the week followed by a return to more seasonal temperatures.
Winnipeg will see mainly sunny skies today courtesy a ridge that extends south through Manitoba from a high near the 60th parallel. With light winds, temperatures will climb to a high near 29 °C this afternoon. Along with the warmth, humidity levels will stay comfortable and make for a beautiful afternoon. Temperatures will dip to a low near 15 °C tonight with clear skies.
On Tuesday, temperatures will again climb to a high near 29 °C but a warm front will spread cloud into the region through the day. There will be a chance of scattered showers as the warm front passes midday, and again as a cold front sweeps southeast on Tuesday night. After the warm front pushes through, winds will increase out of the southeast to 30–40 km/h for the afternoon. The winds will ease after midnight, then pick up out of the northwest with the cold front early Wednesday morning.
Winnipeg will see another warm day on Tuesday before cooler, more seasonal temperatures move in for the second half of the week.
With both the warm and cold fronts, there will be a chance of a thunderstorms. The environment will not likely support a widespread severe weather threat, but isolated severe thunderstorms may be possible. If any severe thunderstorms develop, the primary threat associated with them would be large hail and damaging wind gusts. For any thunderstorms at night, the primary threat will be hail.
On Wednesday, northwest winds will persist at 20–30 km/h through the day and usher in more seasonal temperatures. Skies will be on the cloudier side through the morning, but should clear out for the afternoon. Winnipeg will see a high near 25 °C in the afternoon and a low near 13 °C on Wednesday night.
Long Range Outlook
A cooler air mass will move into the region for the second half of the week. Winnipeg will see highs cool to the low 20s and lows to the mid- to low teens. Skies will be variably cloudy through the second half of the week with another chance for showers or thunderstorms later Thursday.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23°C while the seasonal overnight low is 10°C.
The warm temperatures will continue in Winnipeg right through the weekend, but a couple disturbances moving through will bring several chances of showers or thunderstorms to the region.
Temperatures will soar back into the low 30s in Winnipeg today with slightly humid conditions. Mainly sunny skies this morning will give way to increasing cloud this afternoon as a disturbance approaches the region this afternoon. By mid-afternoon, the Red River Valley will begin to see a chance of thunderstorms spreading eastwards. Today’s storms could produce severe weather across the region; the main threats will be torrential rainfall and large hail, but isolated severe wind events will also be possible. While a tornado is possible today, it will not be a primary threat.
Most forecasts show a line of thunderstorms entering the Red River Valley by 6 PM.
Showers or thunderstorms will continue to be possible into the night, although the chance is significantly less after midnight. Temperatures will dip to a low near 18°C.
Severe Weather Setup
Friday will pose a notable severe weather threat over southern Manitoba. The triggering weather feature will be a trough of low pressure pushing eastwards through the region. The thermodynamic environment will be favourable for severe weather. Surface dew points in the 17–18 °C range will support MLCAPE values near 2000 J/kg. There is a bit of uncertainty with the moisture depth, but mid-level drying between 700 and 500 mb will also support storm development.
Dynamics are a little less favourable, though, with a disjointed veering hodograph with relatively light winds. Bulk shear (0–6 km) values are forecast to sit around 25 knots, marginally supportive for severe storms. Thunderstorms will struggle with weak mid-level winds, though, and will have to rely on broader synoptic support to get organized.
Precipitable water is forecast to sit in the 30–40 mm range, high enough o support torrential rainfall. Fortunately, storm motion is forecast to be 25 to 40 km/h. Thunderstorms won’t likely be sitting over any one location for too long.
Most forecast soundings show a moderately unstable environment by late Friday.
All this combines to produce a primary threat of damaging hail, supported by large MLCAPE values, marginal shear, and the potential for a favourable dry layer in the mid-levels. Torrential rainfall is also a threat but thunderstorms will likely be moving quickly enough that any one location won’t see problematic accumulations.
Damaging wind gusts will be a secondary threat, but will only be possible if thunderstorms are able to organize enough to produce upscale growth into some sort of MCS. In that case, wind profiles would support the potential development of bow echoes and the associated damaging winds. Lastly, a tornado is possible but would require extensive local-scale modification to the dynamics by a strong thunderstorm. The synoptic support resembles something that could support tornadoes, but a lot of the details aren’t entirely right. That said, be sure to keep watch for any alerts issued by Environment and Climate Change Canada later today for any potential severe weather.
The Weekend
Aside from the chance of an early morning shower, Saturday should be a dry day. Skies will start out fairly cloudy then gradually clear midday into the afternoon. By the evening, Winnipeg should see plenty of sunshine with temperatures in the upper 20s. The city will see a low near 16°C on Saturday night with mainly clear skies.
On Sunday, another surge of warmer air followed by a cold front will move through the region. Winnipeg should see a high back near 30 °C with partly cloudy to mixed skies. As the cold front pushes into the region in the afternoon, a chance for showers or thunderstorms will spread into the Red River Valley and persist into the evening hours. The cloud cover will break up overnight with a low near 16°C.
Long Range Outlook
Next week will bring a return to near-seasonal temperatures. Daytime highs will hover in the mid-20s with overnight lows cooling to the low teens. A zonal flow aloft will develop, meaning the region will see a fair amount of sun, but occasional disturbances bringing showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24°C while the seasonal overnight low is 11°C.
The summer heat will gradually wane over the coming days as unsettled conditions move into the region.
A large upper ridge over the Prairies will bring another day of scorching weather to southern Manitoba. With blazing sunshine, Winnipeg will see temperatures soar to a high near 34 °C. Dew point temperatures will stay in the mid- to upper teens, producing humidex values near 40 through the afternoon.
Tonight, a low pressure system will slide across the province, dragging a cold front with it to the east. That will bring some cloudiness to the city overnight as temperatures dip to a low near 16 °C. Heading through the second half of the night, Winnipeg will see a low chance of showers or thunderstorms as the low moves into the Red River Valley.
Scorching hot summer temperatures will be in place across the southern Prairies today.
On Thursday, any chance of rain will come to an end in the morning as the low moves off to the east. Temperatures will quickly rise to a high near 32 °C with partly cloudy skies for the rest of the day. The winds will shift to the north for the afternoon behind a weak cold front that moves through the area. Temperatures will dip to a low near 16 °C on Thursday night with a few clouds.
On Friday, a shortwave moving eastwards will run along a warm front draped across southern Manitoba. Skies will be mixed to cloudy with a good chance of some showers or thunderstorms through the day. Winnipeg should see a high near 26 °C, but it will be sensitive to the exact placement of the warm front and how much sun manages to poke out. If it ends up a tad on the sunnier side, temperatures could climb as high as 30 °C. Some marginally severe thunderstorms may be possible and there is the potential for some training storms resulting in locally high rainfall accumulations in bands parallel to the warm front.
The unsettled conditions will clear out on Friday evening with temperatures dipping to a low near 17 °C.
Long Range Outlook
The weekend will bring more settled conditions back to the region with seasonably warm highs in the upper 20s. On Sunday, a weak disturbance passing through may bring the chance for thundershowers back to the region.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24°C while the seasonal overnight low is 11°C.
A cold front pushing through southern Manitoba will bring unsettled conditions today, but a high pressure system will usher in beautiful summer conditions for the long weekend.
Today’s main weather-maker will be a cold front will pushing across the Red River Valley. Winnipeg will start the day with remnant cloud cover from the night’s thunderstorms. Skies will become mixed later this morning as showers and thunderstorms develop ahead of the advancing front. Temperatures should reach a high around 26 °C this afternoon with dew points climbing to a muggy 19 °C.
The unsettled weather will move through in the afternoon, then push off to the southeast in the evening. We do not any severe weather in Winnipeg, but high dew points will likely result in locally heavy rainfall. To the south and east, there’s a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms that could produce large hail alongside heavy rain.
Much of southern Manitoba is expected to see showers and/or thunderstorms today.
Northerly winds up to 30 km/h will develop this evening behind the cold front, ushering in a drier air mass. Temperatures will dip to a low near 14°C under mainly clear skies.
Behind today’s instability comes a beautiful long weekend. A sprawling area of high pressure will gradually build into the province this weekend, bringing plenty of sunshine and seasonal temperatures. The wind will continue to be breezy out of the north on Saturday, but will ease into the 15–25 km/h range for Sunday.
Long Range Outlook
There’s nothing but beautiful summer weather in the long-range forecast, with mainly sunny skies and seasonal temperatures persisting right into the middle of next week. The second half of the week may bring gradual warming with variable cloudiness.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.
