Tag: Thunderstorms

Beautiful Summer Weather Continues

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There will be plenty of sunshine over the next few days as near-seasonal warmth remains in place over southern Manitoba. After a risk of thunderstorms this evening, conditions will settle and Winnipeg will round out the work week under plenty of sunshine.

Today will be a beautiful day in Winnipeg; this morning will start off still a bit muggy as some remnant humidity from yesterday remains trapped near the surface, but things should dry out quite quickly as the temperature rises through the morning. With a more comfortable humidity level, Winnipeg’s high of 29°C under mainly sunny skies will make for a great summer day.

The Red River Valley will see some increasing cloud cover late in the day as a disturbance slides along the international border and drags a cold front southwards. This will likely trigger thunderstorms, however the extent is still uncertain. The chances are best close to the U.S. border, and then diminish heading northwards. North of the Trans-Canada Highway, it appears there will be just a very small chance of seeing anything. Temperatures will then drop to a low near 17°C with any remaining cloud clearing out overnight.

The RDPS is forecasting thunderstorms to roll across southern Manitoba on Wednesday night.

Temperatures will drop back closer to seasonal on Thursday as slightly cooler air moves into the region behind a cold front that will pass through early in the day. Winds will pick up out of the northwest to around 30 gusting 50 km/h as temperatures climb to high of 25°C under sunny skies with just a few afternoon clouds.

The wind will taper off in the evening as temperatures dip down to a low near 12°C with just a few clouds lingering through the night.

A cold front will move through Southern Manitoba on Wednesday night, slumping south of the border by Thursday morning.

Friday will be another beautiful day with temperatures once again climbing to a seasonal 25 or 26°C. Winds will be much lighter than Thursday, and skies will be partly cloudy to mixed for much of the day. All in all still a very pleasant summer day. Expect lows to dip down into the mid-teens on Friday night.

Heat Builds in Through Weekend

Warmer weather will build back into the region this weekend with temperatures climbing back into the upper 20’s or perhaps even the low 30’s.

An upper-level ridge (blue squiggle) will build into the Prairies early next week.

This warm weather will be the result of an upper-level ridge building into the Prairies. This feature will remain established over the Prairies for much of next week, giving Winnipeg and the Red River Valley above normal temperatures through much of next week. Conditions look generally dry, but we may see one or two chances of thunderstorms through the week. Summer has arrived!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

Stormy Tuesday Brings The Heat

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The heat will be cranking up over the Prairies this week, and Winnipeg will see increasing warmth through the start of the week. A potentially stormy Tuesday will be a marked turning point as hot and muggy weather moves into the region. Heading into the second half of the week, conditions will be more settled but the heat sticks around for the foreseeable future.

A major pattern shift is underway that will bring a prolonged period of heat to much of western North America. Winnipeg will begin feeling the impact today as temperatures climb towards a high of 27°C under mixed skies. Winds will pick up out of the south-southeast to around 20 km/h in the afternoon as low pressure system begins approaching the province from Saskatchewan. The humidity will remain relatively comfortable today, though, with dew point temperatures expected to remain around 13 or 14°C.1

Winds will continue out of the south-southeast tonight with temperatures remaining warm overnight; the expected low is just 17°C as a warm front pushes across the Red River Valley.

The RDPS shows an organized line of thunderstorms developing on Tuesday afternoon.

Summer will arrive in all forms for Winnipeg on Tuesday. Now in what’s known as the warm sector, the humidity will rise quite quickly on Tuesday morning with dew points reaching around 18-19°C. Temperatures will climb towards a high of 29°C which will feel closer to the mid-30’s with the humidity factored in. For the afternoon, attention will turn towards the potential for severe thunderstorms as a cold front pushes southeastwards into the Red River Valley.

Going over the MIST ingredients:

  • Moisture: Plenty of moisture available with dew points in the upper teens being fed into any storms that develop. Moisture also seems to be relatively deep, so dramatic reductions due to mixing are unlikely.
  • Instability: MLCAPE values climb towards the 2000 J/kg mark with marginal capping. The low-level inversion will erode with the injection of 850 mb cooling while 700 mb temperatures remain below the 10°C threshold.
  • Shear: Surface – 6km bulk shear values peak around 30 kt which would be ample for storm organization.
  • Trigger: Two primary foci for convection: a pre-frontal trough that moves through midday, and then a cold front that pushes into the region mid- to late-afternoon.

These thunderstorms may be severe with the primary threats being large hail and localized flooding due to intense downpours. Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms as well. At this point, it seems like a tornado threat is unlikely, but we’ll keep an eye on things as they develop.

After the cold front slides through, winds will shift out of the northwest at around 15-25 km/h and the humidity will begin to ease as drier air moves into the region. Temperature will still remain warm, though, with overnight lows dropping only to around the 17°C mark once again.

Wednesday will be another hot day with temperatures climbing to around the 28°C mark with partly cloudy skies in the morning. The humidity will be much more comfortable than on Tuesday thanks to drier air that works in through the day and drops dew points back down to the low teens for the afternoon. Expect a low near 17 or 18°C on Wednesday night with a slight chance of another shower or thunderstorm as a weak disturbance slides through the region.

Long Range.

Looking further ahead, temperatures will cool towards seasonal to round out the work week as slightly cooler air moves in behind Wednesday night’s disturbance.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid July 10 – 17, 2017

The heat begins building back in through the weekend, and next week is looking quite warm and relatively humid as an upper ridge builds over the western Prairies, spreading above-normal temperatures across the region.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 25°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

  1. The dew point only begins having a significant impact on how hot and/or muggy it feels once it begins climbing above 15°C or so. ↩

Unsettled & Cooler…Again

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Another disturbance tracking across the Prairies will bring more wet weather to Winnipeg and keep temperatures cooler than seasonal for late June.

Today will start off with a line of showers and/or thunderstorms moving eastwards through the Red River Valley as a cold front pushes eastwards across the region. General rainfall amounts within the Red River Valley from this system will be around the 5-10 mm mark, although locally higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms. That said, it’s likely that the eastern Red River Valley sees higher amounts while the western Red River Valley trends towards lower amounts. Depending on exactly how things have evolved overnight, though, there may be sizeable gaps in the line of precipitation resulting in some areas seeing no rain at all.

The wet and stormy weather will clear out of the valley midday, and Winnipeg will be left with gradually clearing skies into the evening. Temperatures will climb to high near 22°C this afternoon with winds picking up out of the northwest to 20-30 km/h behind the cold frontal passage.

Winnipeg will be on the western edge of tomorrow’s rain, with much of it falling to the east and north of the Red River Valley.

Winnipeg should see fairly clear skies tonight with light winds as temperatures dip to a low near 13°C.

Thursday will likely begin with some sunshine, but quickly cloud up in the morning as another low pressure system begins moving into the area. Any wet weather should hold off until mid-to-late afternoon; heading towards evening it looks likely that another batch of scattered showers or thunderstorms will develop. With the wet weather holding off until later in the day, it will actually be relatively pleasant despite the cloudy skies with temperatures climbing to a high near 22°C and light winds.

Scattered showers will likely continue across the Red River Valley on Thursday night, supported by a cold low stalled over the region. Temperatures will head to a low near 14°C.

A deep upper trough with cold low embedded will be in place over Manitoba on Friday.

Friday will bring mainly cloudy skies and scattered showers or thundershowers to Winnipeg and the Red River Valley. Temperatures will be cooler as a cold low stalls over the region; daytime highs throughout the Red River Valley will be just 19-20°C. Winds will be light out of the north at 10-20 km/h.

Long Range

Canada’s 150th anniversary celebrations are looking okay at this point; cloudy skies in the morning should gradually clear through the day, although we may see a few light showers through the first half of the day. Temperatures will climb to a high near 21-22°C with winds out of the north at 10-20 km/h. For the evening celebrations, skies should be mixed or partly cloudy with temperatures somewhere in the 15-20°C range.

Sunday will be a pleasant day with partly cloudy skies and a high near 23°C. Heading into next week it looks like we’ll finally snap out of this cool spell and see some seasonal to above-seasonal temperatures build in for the week!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 25°C while the seasonal overnight low is 12°C.

Seasonal Temperatures Build Back, But Quick Return to Unsettled Conditions

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In what is quickly becoming the summer that just can’t quite get going, seasonal warmth will be ushered out of the region by unsettled conditions nearly as quickly as it arrives as another large low pressure system moves into the Prairies.

Winnipeg will see a return to more seasonal temperatures today as the weather system that had brought the cooler temperatures moves off to the east. Today will be perhaps the most pleasant of the next few as sunny skies will combine with light winds and a high near 22°C. Expect temperatures to dip down to around 10°C tonight with some cloud cover moving into the region near morning.

Tomorrow will bring slightly warmer temperatures alongside breezy southeasterly winds that pick up to around 30 gusting 50 km/h. The increasing warmth and wind is thanks to a trough of low pressure pushing eastwards across the Prairies associated with an upper low moving out of Alberta. Winnipeg will see a daytime high climb towards 24°C with mixed to cloudy skies for much of the day, although it’s likely that we’ll see a few sunny breaks in the afternoon. Temperatures will dip to a low near 15°C on Tuesday night under cloudy skies with an increasing chance of rain towards morning.

A band of showers and thunderstorms will push across southwestern Manitoba towards the Red River Valley early Wednesady morning
A band of showers and thunderstorms will push across southwestern Manitoba towards the Red River Valley early Wednesady morning

Wednesday will bring the low pressure system through Manitoba, spreading showers and/or thunderstorms throughout the region, primarily through the morning hours. After that Winnipeg will be left with cloudy skies and a slight chance of showers. Temperatures will reach a high near 19°C with cloudy skies continuing on Wednesday night as the low drops to around 14°C.

Long Range

The unsettled weather continues for the second half of the work week. Slightly cooler-than-seasonal temperatures will beg in place right through the weekend with highs generally in the low 20’s and overnight lows near 10-12°C.

It won’t be soaking wet, but Winnipeg will see a chance of showers late Thursday, much of Friday, and on Canada Day Saturday as well. None of these days look like particularly large soakings or anything of that sort, just generally unsettled conditions.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 25°C while the seasonal overnight low is 12°C.