Tag: Thunderstorms

Warm Weather Ahead With Chances of Thunderstorms

Brad

Although the worst heat has broken over the region, Winnipeg will see a warm week ahead with several chances of thunderstorms.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday June 23, 2022
Hot weather will return to southern Manitoba on Thursday, but humidity levels should be more comfortable than this past weekend.

The upper ridge that brought sweltering heat this past weekend has pushed off to the east, taking the uncomfortable weather with it. In its wake, a shortwave is now lifting through the region and will bring unsettled conditions today.

While the Parkland and Interlake regions see frequent showers and/or thunderstorms today, Winnipeg and the Red River Valley will have two main chances. First, there will be a chance of showers or thunderstorms early this morning as a shortwave moves into the area. Skies will stay on the cloudier side through the day with another chance for showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. Scattered showers or thunderstorms may be possible in between, but most of the activity should be either in the morning or later in the afternoon.

Temperatures will be much cooler today given the cloud cover with a high in the low 20s for Winnipeg. Humidity levels will also be a lot more comfortable in the mid-teens.

Skies will clear out overnight for Wednesday as a new large-scale weather pattern sets up over the Prairies. Over the next few days, a westerly flow will stay in place over the southern Prairies bringing seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures and comfortable humidity levels. Both Wednesday and Thursday should bring mainly sunny skies as the heat returns to the region; highs will climb into mid-20s on Wednesday then into the low 30s on Thursday. Overnight lows will sit in the upper teens both nights. There’s also a small chance of a shower or thunderstorm on Wednesday evening.

Long Range Outlook

The next weather system will be an upper trough will digging into the Prairies at the end of the week. It will bring more cloud to the region for Friday with another chance of showers or thunderstorms. The weekend should bring partly cloudy conditions to the region with highs in the low to mid-20s and lows in the low teens.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 12 °C.

Weather Turning Unsettled This Weekend

Brad

Winnipeg will see another day of sunny and mild conditions before cloudier, unsettled weather moves into the region.

RDPS 2m Dew Point Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Monday June 13, 2022
Humid conditions will push into southern Manitoba by the end of the weekend with dew point values climbing into the upper teens.

Today is Winnipeg’s last day under the influence of the upper ridge over the Prairies. After a mostly sunny start to the day, temperatures will climb into the mid-20s for the afternoon. Skies will cloud over through the day as a warm front approaches from the west.

A few showers may be possible this evening, but the activity will weaken though the night. The warm front will stall southwest of the region on Saturday and continue to bring cloud to the region. A few showers may linger across the region early Saturday, but should taper off as the morning progresses.

From Sunday onwards, the upper ridge will slump southwards, allowing multiple disturbances to ride over it across the southern Prairies. While cloud will keep daytime highs in the low to mid-20s, southerly winds will raise dew points into the upper teens. This will give the region the first stretch of humid conditions this summer. Another chance of showers or thunderstorms will develop across the region on Saturday night into Sunday morning. That activity will clear out on Sunday morning, leaving behind mixed to cloudy skies for the rest of the day.

Long Range Outlook

Generally unsettled conditions will persist through the first half of next week as several disturbances roll through the region. A few periods of showers or thunderstorms will again be possible on Monday and Tuesday. Conditions will begin to improve on Wednesday with some sunshine returning the region, but there may be enough lingering instability for a few late-day showers.

Heading into the second half of next week, there’s strong indications that even warmer weather will begin moving into the region. Daytime highs may climb into the upper 20s by the end of next week.

With humid and warmer weather on the horizon, it’s a great time to check to make sure you have some fans in your home and that, if you have it, your air conditioning unit is working correctly. Heat stress is becoming more common in western Canada summers; ensuring that everything works before the warm weather arrives will help protect you. If there are any issues, you’ll likely find what you need easier and cheaper before the heat arrives. If you live alone, think about having someone you might check in with daily this summer during periods of extreme heat, especially if you don’t have access to air conditioning.

It looks like the shift into summer has finally begun; enjoy it! Especially after the winter we just had to endure!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.

After A Mostly Dry Week, An Unsettled Pattern Returns

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Conditions will turn unsettled over southern Manitoba as a deep upper trough develops over western North America this weekend.

RDPS 500 mb Wind & Height Forecast valid 00Z Monday May 30, 2022
A deep upper trough will develop over western North America in the coming days, sending Manitoba into a wet and unsettled stretch of weather.

The weather will change over the next few days as an upper low off the west coast moves onshore. As it moves into British Columbia, an upper trough will dig southwards over the Rockies. As it does, it will turn a relatively benign pattern over the Prairies into something much more unsettled.

After a beautiful Friday with temperatures climbing into the mid-20s, cloud will push into the Red River Valley this evening. A shortwave tracking eastwards along the U.S. border will support area of showers or thunderstorms through the night. They will develop this afternoon in southern Saskatchewan and drift into southwest Manitoba tonight. The showers will reach Winnipeg through the second half of the night, but also be weakening as they approach. It’s unlikely that there’s enough “oomph” left by morning for there to be any thunderstorms; the Winnipeg area will see a few showers taper off early Saturday.

Skies will stay cloudy most of Saturday with a few sunny breaks possible in the afternoon. Temperatures will climb to around 20 °C, perhaps warmer if a bit more sun is able to peek out. More cloud will push in on Saturday evening as temperatures dip into the low teens.

The next disturbance will begin lifting northwards through the Dakotas on Saturday night. A broad area of showers and/or thunderstorms will develop across North Dakota on Saturday night and lift northwards. They’ll move into Manitoba early Sunday, and continue northwards through the day. Much of southern Manitoba will see showery conditions through Sunday with increasing humidity as the day progresses. While rainfall will be highly variable, it’s likely that much of the southern Manitoba will see 10–25 mm of rain through Sunday. Locally, depending on the strength of the convection, rainfall totals could reach 25–50 mm.

Temperatures will stay mild, though, with highs near 20 °C and a low on Sunday night in the mid-teens. Cloudy weather will continue on Monday with a chance for a few showers. Another disturbance is forecast to move through on Monday night which may bring more showers and thunderstorms to the region. With humid air in place, rainfall could be quite heavy. This will be a concern given the flood concerns that continue in parts of the province.

Long Range Outlook

Some more showers are possible Tuesday into Wednesday as yet another disturbance moves through the region. Cooler weather with with isolated to scattered showers will move in mid-week. The weather will finally stabilize for the end of the work week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.

More Unsettled Weather Ahead For Winnipeg

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Southern Manitoba will see a mix of weather this week with more rain on Thursday.

NAM 24hr. Accumulated Precipitation Forecast valid 12Z Friday May 13, 2022
Southern Manitoba will see another soaking on Thursday with a widespread 15–30 mm of rain across many areas and some locally higher accumulations.

The region will get a bit of a chance to dry out today, a welcome change after the 15–25 mm of rain seen across most of the region yesterday. Sunnier skies will send highs near 20 °C, but it will be windy this afternoon. Southwest winds will pick up into the 40–50 km/h range this afternoon.

The winds will taper off this evening as a ridge moves across the region. Lows will dip into the upper single digits. More cloud will push into the region early Wednesday morning as a push of warmer air begins moving in aloft from the Dakotas.

Wednesday will bring cloudy skies to the region with a chance of showers a warm front slowly continues northwards towards southern Manitoba. Temperatures should climb into the upper teens with northeast winds picking up to 20–30 km/h through the afternoon. A few sunny breaks might materialize later in the day, but skies will cloud back over in the evening.

The next storm system to impact the region will begin its approach on Thursday night. It will spread showers and thunderstorms into the Dakotas as it moves northwards, reaching the Manitoba border by Thursday morning. A broad area of rain will move through the region on Thursday, bringing another 15–30 mm of rain to the Red River Valley. A few embedded thunderstorms will be possible and could result in locally higher rainfall accumulations. A more organized thunderstorm threat will develop late in the day, but will highly likely be for southeastern Manitoba into MN/ND. The rain will taper off by Thursday evening with just a few lingering showers hanging around until Friday morning. Temperatures will sit in the mid-teens on Thursday with breezy northeast winds.

Some sunshine will poke through later on Friday with temperatures climbing back towards the 20 °C mark. Moderate southwesterlies will develop through the day, climbing into the 40–50 km/h range.

Long Range Outlook

Cooler temperatures will build into the region for the weekend in the wake of this next storm system. Highs will fall into the 10–15 °C range with mixed skies over the weekend. Warmer weather will begin building back into the region near the middle of next week. Fortunately, it doesn’t look like any frost is in the forecast; overnight lows should drop only to the mid-single digits.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 18 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 4 °C.