The warm, mostly sunny weather of the past few days will give way to more unsettled conditions as a low pressure system anchors itself in Central Saskatchewan allowing a trough to sit over Southern Manitoba as a second low works it’s way across the Northern Plains of the United States. Showers will try to get going across Southern Manitoba but their coverage will be heavily limited by a lack of upper-level support over the region.
Today
24°C / 12°C
Sunny with cloudy periods. Chance of showers or a thunderstorm in the afternoon.
We’ll start off with some lingering clouds this morning with a chance of a few scattered showers as the remnants of a weak cold front wash out over the Red River Valley. We’ll then see a bit of short-lived clearing before skies cloud up this afternoon once we get warm enough to get some convection going. There will be enough instability around to produce a few afternoon showers or perhaps even a weak thunderstorm or two. Lifted Index values will be sitting at only –1 or –2°C which represents only marginal instability and CAPEs agree with values only around 500–750J/kg.
With little forcing in the area, the most favourable area for showers or thunderstorms will be near subtle convergence features; in our case, that will mean near either the western escarpment of the Red River Valley or any lake breeze convergence lines that form to the north and northwest of the city. At the moment it’s looking like the most potential for a thunderstorm sits west of Winnipeg in the Red River Valley, but there’s certainly a chance we may see an afternoon thunderstorm here in the city. Aside from the potential showers & thunderstorms, it will actually be a fairly pleasant day. Winds will be fairly light through the day and we’ll be climb to a high near 24°C. Skies will clear tonight as we head to a low of around 12°C.
Saturday & Sunday
23°C / 12°C
Increasing cloudiness then a few showers or rain.
24°C / 12·C
Mix of sun and clouds. Showers likely southwest of Winnipeg.
After a sunny start, skies will cloud over on Saturday as a trough connecting a low pressure system in central Saskatchewan and a low pressure system pushing into the Dakotas. There will some showers ahead of the trough line that will push through the Red River Valley in the afternoon. Rainfall amounts won’t be anything significant, but a localized 5–10mm can’t be ruled out. We’ll see a high near 23°C and an overnight low once again sitting near 12°C under clearing skies. Sunday will be a mix of sun and clouds with showers likely south and west of the Red River Valley. The high for the day will be around 24°C with an overnight low into Monday morning of about 12°C once again.
