Mild Start of Week but Change is Coming

The temperatures look to remain above average for the start of this week as the storm track remains well to our north, and the cold Arctic air remains locked up to our north….for now.

Although today will be fairly warm, with a high near -5°C, the wind will be a factor in making it feel cooler than it actually is. Sustained southerly winds could reach 40km/h, with gusts in the 60km/h range tomorrow, in the afternoon and evening. The overnight low will be a fairly mild one, with temperatures only dipping to around -12°C.

RDPS Forecast Winds for Monday Afternoon
The RDPS forecast shows a core of strong outflow winds running across the Northern Plains and through the Red River Valley into Manitoba on Monday afternoon.

Tomorrow looks to be more of the same temperature-wise, with temperatures reaching -6°C. The strong winds should ease up early in the morning – only reaching 10-15km/h on Tuesday. Skies should remain partly cloudy throughout the day, but overnight cloud cover will increase, associated with a system to our south.

On Wednesday cloud cover is expected to persist and even a few flakes are possible in the morning and early afternoon, but amounts won’t be significant. The high looks to be slightly cooler than previous days at around -8°C. North-easterly winds will be in place through the day but they won’t be very strong; only around 10km/h or so.

Long Range

Long range models are hinting at a possible snow event at the end of this week. Right now models show the bulk of the snow staying to the southeast of Winnipeg, into northwestern Ontario though. Unfortunately, cold Arctic air will be advected into our region behind this system, resulting in normal to below normal temperatures by the weekend.

Warm Monday, then Arctic Air Returns

We’ll see warm weather to start the week before arctic air quickly returns for Tuesday.

Today will be significantly warmer than the weather of the past several days
Today will be significantly warmer than the weather of the past several days

Monday

Monday
-1°C / -16°C
Flurries

Today will be the warmest day of the week and the warmest day we’ve seen in awhile. Temperatures will be around the freezing mark by late in the day as a milder western flow moves across southern Manitoba. That westerly flow will be quite brisk as winds reach 40km/h gusting to 60km/h. We’ll also see some light flurries during the day, although accumulations will be small.

Tuesday

Tuesday
-14°C / -26°C
Mainly Sunny

Tuesday will be a cooler, but less windy day. High temperatures will be in the mid minus teens with a breezy north-west wind. Skies should be fairly sunny, so overall conditions won’t be too bad.

Wednesday

Wednesday
-19°C / -30°C
Mix of sun and cloud

Wednesday will see temperatures drop further as another arctic high builds in from the north. High temperatures will be around the -20C mark, with variable skies. There will be a slight chance of flurries due to some low-level instability, but they will be very hit and miss.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to look very cold. A series of high pressure system will continue to drop down from the north, bringing continued bursts of arctic air. On a happier note, meteorological winter is almost over, so we can only go up from here!

Above-Normal Temperatures to Start the Week

More above-normal weather is in store to start the week – what’s not to like!

Temperatures on Monday will be near normal in Southern Manitoba
Temperatures on Monday will be near normal in Southern Manitoba

Monday

Monday
11°C / 3°C
Mainly Sunny

Today will see near normal temperatures in southern Manitoba. Highs will be around or just above 10C with mainly sunny skies. Winds will be light, making for pleasant conditions overall.

Tuesday

Tuesday
17°C / 8°C
Mainly Sunny

Tuesday will see above-normal conditions return to southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper teens with skies remaining mainly sunny. A strong south-east wind will be in place throughout the day, putting a bit of an edge on what would otherwise be a very nice day.

Wednesday

Wednesday
16°C / 8°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of showers

Warm weather will continue on Wednesday, with temperatures remaining in the mid teens. A weak low pressure system is expected to pass through southern Manitoba during the day, possibly producing some showers in its vicinity. This system will also likely bring in some heavier cloud cover, so Wednesday probably won’t be as sunny as Monday and Tuesday.

Long Range

Long range modelling suggests that above-normal weather [1] will continue through the end of October. That doesn’t mean that every single day will be warmer than normal, but the majority should be. Enjoy the pleasant end to October!


  1. Normal highs for the last stretch of October sit around 9°C.  ↩

Beautiful End to the Long Weekend

The Thanksgiving long weekend will end on a nice note, with mild temperatures and sunny skies for holiday Monday.

Holiday Monday will be pleasant in southern Manitoba
Holiday Monday will be pleasant in southern Manitoba

Monday

Monday
16°C / 4°C
Mainly sunny

Today will be very nice in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be in the mid teens with light winds and sunny skies. This pleasant weather is the result of a ridge of high pressure building over the Prairies, which will continue to bring mild conditions to Manitoba for much of the week.

Tuesday

Tuesday
17°C / 7°C
Increasing cloudiness

Tuesday will be another nice day in southern Manitoba as temperatures climb into the upper teens. A gusty south wind will develop by late in the day, but otherwise it should remain quite pleasant. There will be an increase in cloudiness through the day, as some upper-level cloud cover begins to spill into Manitoba from the west.

Wednesday

Wednesday
19°C / 10°C
A few clouds

Wednesday will see a continuation of the warm weather from Monday and Tuesday. However, there will also be a very stiff south wind, making it feel a bit chillier than it would otherwise be. Temperatures will nonetheless be in the upper teens or near 20C, which is of course well above normal for this time of year.

Long Range

A cold front is currently forecast to pass through southern Manitoba on Thursday, ushering in cooler conditions to end the week. However, models have been strongly hinting at a return to above-normal weather by next week, a trend that may last through the end of the month.