After a warm weekend, which featured a beautifully Saturday and stormy Sunday, we will stick with warm to hot weather to start the week. A ridge of high pressure will gradually build into Southern Manitoba this week, allowing us to keep the warm conditions experienced on the weekend.
A ridge of high pressure is expected to build into Southern Manitoba this week
Monday will be a warm to hot day in Southern Manitoba, with high temperatures in the mid to high twenties under mainly sunny skies. Tuesday will again be warm and sunny day, with high temperatures in the low to mid twenties. An easterly flow pushing slightly cooler air into the province is the reason why Tuesday will be a bit cooler than Monday. Temperatures will climb again on Wednesday, as we reach back up into the high twenties under a south-easterly flow.
The weather through late week is, as usual, less certain. Thursday looks to remain warm but Friday into the weekend may be cooler. A low pressure system is currently forecast to cross Southern Manitoba on Friday, which will be a catalyst for cooler weather. More details will be available later in the week.
A trough will cause below-normal temperatures over Western North America (blue areas), while a ridge brings warmer weather to Central/Eastern North America (orange areas)
A quick update on the June forecast. Most long-range models are showing a ridge-trough pattern dominating North America through June. This pattern means a ridge will likely reside over Central/Eastern North America through a good part of June while a trough sits over Western North America. Southern Manitoba will be frequently caught in between these two features, causing our weather to be variable with hot spells as well as some cooler outbreaks. This pattern may also promote more chances for thunderstorms, though this is not as clear-cut.
At any rate, enjoy what will be a nice first half of the week!
A weak trough pushing across SW Manitoba today will push into the Red River Valley this evening, bringing with it some scattered showers or thundershowers. Things will clear out quickly, and we’ll be looking at temperatures in the mid-20’s for the weekend.
Total expected precipitation from teh GEMREG model this afternoon.
We’ll have a slightly more unsettled day today as a weak surface trough pushes into the Red River Valley this afternoon. Temperatures will climb up to just over the 20°C this afternoon before showers and thunderstorms develop over SW Manitoba and push eastwards into the Red River Valley. Dynamics begin to fall apart as the afternoon progresses, and any showers or thunderstorms will struggle to survive in an increasingly disorganized environment. It looks like the best chance of seeing some rain this afternoon will be through the Western Red River Valley, with diminishing chances east of the Red River. By the time the trough gets to the Whiteshell, the threat of precipitation will likely be over.
Saturday looks to be a gorgeous day as sunshine once again dominates across Southern Manitoba and highs climb to around 25°C. Things will turn a little more unsettled overnight on Saturday as an area of rain blossoms over Southern Saskatchewan and heads our way. The exact location of the rain is still uncertain, however best indications are that we’ll see a cloudy day across much of the Red River Valley, with the bulk of the rain passing north of Winnipeg through the interalke region, with only a chance of showers for Winnipeg and areas south. It will certainly be a system to keep an eye on as the weekend progresses.
This week will start out on the warm side as a high pressure ridge edges into Manitoba. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are expected to reach or exceed 20C, which will mark the first occurrence of a 20 degree reading since April 6.
A large ridge centred over Western North America will bring warm weather to Southern Manitoba on Monday and Tuesday
Highs on Monday should be around 20C in most of Southern Manitoba. Skies will range from mainly sunny to mainly cloudy, with Winnipeg and the Red River Valley tending to be on the cloudier side and Western Manitoba on the sunnier end. As such South-Western Manitoba will likely be a bit warmer than the rest of Southern Manitoba. Tuesday will feature much the same weather as Monday with temperatures once again climbing up to around the twenty degree mark over Southern Manitoba. Skies on Tuesday will mostly likely be a mixture of sun and cloud, preventing temperatures from climbing much above 20 degrees. Should Monday or Tuesday be sunnier than currently expected you can easily add a couple degrees onto the temperatures listed above.
20 degree temperatures are expected in Southern Manitoba on Monday and Tuesday
A cold front will slice through Manitoba on Wednesday, dropping our temperatures back down to normal values. Highs on Wednesday are expected to hover in the low teens in Southern Manitoba, while on Thursday temperatures will remain stuck in the single digits. A recovery in temperatures in expected to begin on Friday and stretch into the weekend.
No significant precipitation is expected this week, although some weak shower activity might form as a low pressure system and associated cold front pass through on Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Elsewhere in Weather News
Australian Rains
As Australia’s summer transitions into fall, heavy rains have pummelled its capital, Sydney, and surrounding regions resulting in flash floods throughout the area.
Rainfall map from this past week in NSW, including Sydney’s approximate location. (Source: Bureau of Met.)
Between Monday, April 16th and Wednesday, April 18th, the New South Whales (NSW) region was hit hardest from the flooding where some areas received between 150mm-200mm of rain. The flash floods were triggered by a number of towns receiving rainfall of 40mm/h over a couple hours, and the fact that the soil was saturated in those areas due to heavy rainfall that occurred over the past month.
Parking lot swamped by water. (Source: Seven Network)
Emergency crews were called to assist residents whose cars were overtaken by water and also to help those trapped in their homes as water levels rose in a matter of hours. Utility crews were also busy due to more than a thousand people losing power.
Video of car struggling to cross flooded roads. (Source: mascott1963)
Unfortunately, more rain was forecast to fall this weekend as another slow moving trough/cold front stretched across the whole region. No additional flash flooding was reported with this latest rainfall, however more rainy days are expected to hit the coast this coming week which increases the risk of further flooding in the region where another 15mm-25mm are expected through to Wednesday.
This event comes just two months after the region located north of NSW, Queensland, was hit hard by flooding (brought to you on February 27th post). Australia’s eastern coast has seen its fair share of dangerous flash flooding already this year.
Elsewhere in Weather News has been provided by Matt
A low pressure system tracking through western and central Manitoba will bring unsettled weather, cooler temperatures and windy conditions to the Red River Valley this weekend…but not before one more beautiful day.
Forecast surface temperatures for mid-afternoon today.
Conditions will be fairly uniform across the Red River Valley today with plenty of sunshine, highs near 20°C and a stiff southerly wind blowing at 40 to 50km/h. It’s a fitting end to another simply beautiful, and above normal with regards to the temperature, week. Tonight, a low pressure system will eject out of southeast Saskatchewan across Parkland Manitoba and into the Interlake. Associated with this low is a very strong 40kt low-level jet (LLJ), however a lack of moisture and unimpressive mid-level lapse rates should erase any concerns (or hopes) of nocturnal convection.
A cold front will sweep across the Red River Valley on Saturday morning, bringing a chance of showers to most regions; indications are that areas east of the Red River will see a greater chance of a shower or two than areas west. After the passage of the cold front, the entire RRV will be left with a fairly strong westerly wind and cloudy skies.
Total accumulated precipitation from 00Z Friday to 00Z Monday. This shows the relative lack of precipitation over SW Manitoba and the RRV; a stark contrast to the copious amounts of precipitation that are forecast over Eastern Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba.
The wrap-around precipitation will begin to move into the RRV on Saturday night, coincident with colder air diving southwards on the backside of the low. Current indications are that the precipitation will fall as snow and that the northern half of the RRV has a much greater chance of seeing flurries than the southern half. The low continues to lift NE through the day Sunday, pulling the wrap-around northwards with it and out of the RRV. It will be a struggle between the main area of lift pulling north and remnant moisture and instability in the cooler air left in the RRV. Most areas in the RRV will likely see a little bit of snow on Sunday, however the only areas that might accumulate a cm or two would be north of Morris.
All in all, we’re being spared with this system, as large amounts of precipitation are forecast from the Moose Jaw/Regina, SK region along a line NE to Swan River and The Pas. The GEMGLB is currently painting up to 75mm of precipitation, which if that were to all fall as snow would likely end up as 1-2 feet of the white stuff. We’ll see how much actually falls, though, as the GEMGLB can have problems with convective feedback in situations where embedded elevated convection is a possibility along a warm front. Anyone planning to travel to Saskatchewan today or on the weekend should make sure they check road conditions and weather forecasts for cities/towns along their route before they leave.
After that things clear out for the start of next week and our temperatures rebound back into the low teens by midweek. Things are looking like we’ll have continued sun and warm temperatures into next weekend as well.
