Tag: warm

Another Warm (but Snowy?) Week

Brad Leave a comment

Southern Manitoba’s non-winter just keeps rolling along. Our record warm January will end just as it started – unusually mild. Although there may be an unwelcome surprise to end the month as well…

GEM Temperature forecast - Tuesday, January 31, 2012

GEM Temperature Forecast – Tuesday, January 31, 2012

The last few days of January are expected to feature high temperatures near zero degrees. Monday and Tuesday should be near to or slightly above zero in much of Southern Manitoba. Wednesday is not in January, but it is also expected to be quite warm with highs close to zero.

Surface Pressure Map - Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Surface Pressure Map – Tuesday, January 31, 2012

This warm weather may come at a cost though. During the late hours of Sunday night and early hours of Monday morning snow was falling in many parts of Southern Manitoba. Overnight accumulations were generally light, mainly 2 to 4cm or less. However, the bigger concern for snow will come Monday night and Tuesday. An Alberta Clipper type system is forecast to emerge from the Rockies on Monday. This system will then quickly dive southward on Monday night. Currently the potential for snow with this system is very uncertain. Weather models are predicting anywhere from 0cm to 15cm. As a result, it is very tricky to pin down a more precise snowfall range at this time. As a rough guideline, I will suggest that most parts of Southern Manitoba will see 3 to 6cm of snow with this system. However, bear in mind that we have low confidence in this forecast. The map above shows the expected location of the low pressure system on Tuesday morning (6am). As the exact track and intensity of this system becomes clearer we will provide further updates.

Climate Prediction Center Outlook

Climate Prediction Center Outlook – February 4-8

On a different note, long range modelling shows warm weather persisting through the first 7-10 days of February. The Climate Prediction Centre outlook, seen above, indicates that much of the United States and Southern Canada will be warmer than normal to begin the next month. Many people have been asking where winter has gone…your guess is as good as mine.

Elsewhere in Weather News

Iggy Thrashes Indonesia, Spawns Tornadoes

Tropical Cyclone Iggy has spawned over the eastern Indian Ocean and has brought with it powerful thunderstorms and tornadoes. As the rain season is peaking in Indonesia, chances of a tropical storm increase greatly and could potentially bring with it powerful tornadoes affecting the region.

Infrared Satellite image of Indonesia

Iggy bringing storms to Indonesia on January 26th. IR – cloud tops satellite picture. (Source: NASA and Earthsky).

In total, 22 Indonesian districts experienced damage from the tornadoes, several with significant devastation including Java and Bali, the hardest hit areas. Unfortunately, the tornadoes damaged more than a thousand houses, killed as many as seven people and injured fifty more as it knocked down trees and overturned boats by the shoreline.

Iggy is forecast to move to the south-east, sliding by Australia’s western coast and bringing with it heavy rains, strong winds and possibly more tornadoes. As very warm waters lie to its south-east, Iggy will also strengthen as it moves towards Australia, with the possibility of the cyclone reaching category 2 (winds of 150k/h near the core) by the time it’s all said and done.

Strong Cold Front Pushes through Dixie Alley, US

As the southern states continue to get beat down, yet another powerful system has pushed through the Dixie Alley bringing with it… yes you guessed right, more tornadic supercells! Most of the tornadoes were concentrated in the Mississippi, Arkansas and Alabama regions; where on the evening of January 22nd, optimal conditions were in place for long-tracked supercells. In total, about 30 tornadoes and more than 150 cases of high wind gusts were reported during this unusually strong system that spanned from Chicago to the Gulf of Mexico. The system then moved on to Georgia where a couple tornadoes were again reported from the same system the next morning.

RADAR image of severe storms in the Southern US

Time lapse (Sun, Jan. 22, 7pm thru 7am) RADAR imagery where rotation was detected. (Source SPC, G. Carbin)

The region finally caught a break from the parade of storm systems passing through this past weekend with a ridge of high pressure that built itself behind the front. Calm weather in the region is expected to last at least until Wednesday evening, where there is another system on the horizon.

Elsewhere in Weather News has been provided by Matt

A Mixed Bag On The Way

Brad Leave a comment

Today will bring warm temperatures along with a bit of light rain or snow as a Pacific system tracks through the Interlake towards Hudson Bay. Temperatures will climb above 0°C today before they gradually cool down by the end of the week to more seasonal values.

Probability of Snowfall >= 2cm

Probability of 12 hour snowfall accumulation exceeding 2cm, valid overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.

A low pressure system tracking across the extreme Southern Prairies will arc northwards through Southern Manitoba today, lifting northwards through the Interlake region then exiting towards Hudson Bay. This system will intensify as it pushes into Manitoba and precipitation should blossom as it approaches the RRV. Two challenges exist with this system:

  1. When exactly will the precipitation develop/intensify?
  2. How far north with the system be?
  3. What will the phase of the precipitation be, snow or rain?

We’ll likely see some precipitation early this afternoon in the form of snow as the warm front pushes through the RRV. The Western RRV has a risk of some freezing rain if temperatures can stay below 0°C for long enough with this batch of precipitation. Any freezing rain that does develop will be short-lived, though. The snow will likely stop for the short period we’re in the warm sector of this system, but will return by late-afternoon/early evening with some rain or wet snow as the cold front passes through the area. The precipitation will end later in the evening. Snowfall accumulations today should be quite low in the RRV given the warm temperatures, however areas further east in the Whiteshell have a decent chance of getting around 2cm.

Temperatures should reach the 3-4°C range through most areas south of the Trans-Canada Highway today and drop only a little below 0°C overnight.

For Thursday, temperatures will reach close to 0°C as an elongated trough moves across the RRV, bringing with it a slight chance of flurries. It should pass by lunch, after which the NW winds will bring in cooler air and drop the temperature slowly through the afternoon.

The rest of the week will be relatively quiet, with temperatures gradually returning to more seasonal values (daytime highs moving from the low minus single digits to the high minus teens). The next chance for significant weather looks to be early next week.

Since it will likely be quiet on the weekend, I plan on having a bit of a special post on Friday! We’ll look at how warm this winter has actually been, and I’ll be unveiling a great new tool (barring no more problems…) that I’m really excited to let everybody get their hands on!

Another Day of Record Highs, Then…Winter.

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg has enjoyed 32 consecutive days with above average temperatures, making this one of the more pleasant winters in recent memory. This is about to abruptly change as winter is making an ungraceful return tonight. Before that, however, is another beautiful day with a good chance that more daytime temperature high records will be broken.

2012-01-10 21Z Surface Prog.

Jan. 10, 2012: 21Z (3PM) surface prognosis from the GEM-REG. Blue line represents cold front, red line represents the warm front.

This afternoon will bring more record-setting temperatures to southern Manitoba as the area is drenched in one last shot of Pacific air. By mid-afternoon, Winnipeg will be firmly in the warm sector, and with 850mb temperatures of 2 or 3°C, temperatures should reach as high as 6 or 7°C through a majority of the RRV, Winnipeg included. There is a slight chance that some areas close to the western escarpment of the RRV could see another day of 9 or 10°C with the extra push from downslope winds and their continued lack of snow cover. That being said, I fully expect daytime high records to be broken in many communities in the RRV today.

Tonight, however, is a whole different story.

Winter Returns

After being held well to our north for over 4 weeks, Arctic air will surge across the Prairies today and tonight, bringing a drastic change to the weather. The cold front will sweep through Winnipeg between 00Z and 03Z (6PM & 9PM, respectively), ushering strong northwest winds and much colder air. Much of the southern Prairies will see snowfall with this system, with areas closer to the international border receiving 2-4cm. Winnipeg will be near the northern fringe of the snowfall, but I think that we’ll see at least 2cm of snow here. I think that 5cm is very unlikely, but there is still some uncertainty in how intense the band of snow will be. The most significant snowfalls will occur through the Northern Interlake, where they’ll be under the influence of a hang-back trough from the main low pressure system, bringing them snow for a longer period of time than us in the southern portions of the province.

2012-01-11 15Z 850 Wind Prog

Jan. 11, 2012: 15Z (9AM) 850 wind prognosis from the NAM

With winds at 850mb forecast to be 30-40kt, surface winds have the potential to gust as high as 70km/h overnight. Likely, we’ll see a period of sustained winds near 50km/h before things settle out with sustained winds near 40km/h with gusts to 60km/h. Combined with temperatures that should fall to near -15°C tomorrow morning, wind chill values will be as low as -25 overnight.

2012-01-12 06Z 850 Temp Prog

Jan. 12, 2012: 06Z (Midnight) 850mb temperature prognosis from the NAM

A second cold front will pass through the RRV between 15Z and 18Z tomorrow morning (9AM and Noon), reinforcing the strong winds and causing temperatures to either remain steady or drop through the afternoon. The gusty northwest winds should continue through the whole day, with some light flurries and temperatures that will start near -15°C and drop to close to -20°C by evening. These temperatures combined with the wind should result in wind chill values near -30 for most of the day.

Normal daytime highs for this time of year are around -13°C and normal overnight lows are around -24°C. For the first time in over a month, Winnipeg will experience below-normal temperatures.

Extremely cold air at 850mb will move over the southern portion of the province Wednesday night; with 850mb temperatures in the -25 to -30°C range, we can expect overnight lows close to -25°C for Wednesday and Thursday night, with a daytime high on Thursday barely above -20°C. The GEM-REG is a little warmer than the NAM on the cold air moving over the RRV, so there is a chance of temperatures being a couple degrees warmer than this, but I’ll always bet on the cold air.

Fortunately, it looks like the cold weather will be relatively short lived. Current indications are that another low tracking across the Prairies should push warmer air into Winnipeg for the weekend, with daytime highs near -5°C. More on that later in the week.

UPDATE: 6 records fell again today across Manitoba as most places enjoyed yet another mild day.
td { text-align: center; }

Location New
Record		 Old
Record		 Old Record
Year
Fisher Branch 4.9 2.4 2002
Gimli 4.7 3.0 1990
Gretna 7.5 2.6 2006
Melita 4.3 2.5 2002
Pinawa 6.5 3.5 1990
Winnipeg (Tie) 5.1 5.1 1990

Slight Cool Down Before Mild Temperatures Return

Brad Leave a comment

26 temperature records were broken across the Southern Prairies yesterday as warm Pacific air flooded the region tied to a low pressure system tracking through central SK/MB. The RRV will see a cooler weekend as colder air is creeping southwards on the backside of this system, however the deep freeze is still a little ways off.

Overnight Snow along a weak trough in NW flow

3hr. QPF from the 12Z Jan 06 GEM-REG valid at 09Z Saturday Jan. 7

An area of snow will slowly push southwards through the RRV today, brining only minor accumulations to the region. The system should clear out by this evening, with the chance of a few light flurries through the night in a weak northwest flow. A ridge of high pressure will then work across Southern Manitoba Saturday & Sunday, brining cooler temperatures to the area with daytime highs in the -10 to -5°C range and overnight lows in the -10 to -15°C range through the region.

By Monday, another low pressure system tracking through the northern Prairies will drag more Pacific air over the Prairies once again pushing temperatures above 0°C. Many areas in Southern Manitoba should see daytime highs Monday near 5°C. Currently, it doesn’t look like temperatures will reach nearly as high as some places did yesterday, but things will become a little clearer closer to the day (naturally). It’s quite likely we’ll more daytime high record temperatures broken on Monday.

850MB temperatures from the GEM-GLB

850mb temperature from the 00Z Jan 6 GEM-GLB valid at 00Z Thurs. Jan 12

After that, it looks like we’ll be seeing a bit of a cold snap. On the back side of the system, a fairly strong push of Arctic air will flood through the Prairies, bringing us our coldest temperatures in a while. It looks reasonable, as temperatures in Oymyakon, RU have dropped below -50°C (-55°C when I checked last night), with daytime highs only around -35°C, which is a good indicator for colder weather pushing over the poles towards the Prairies. We won’t get nearly as cold as they are, but by the middle of next week, daytime highs around -15°C with overnight lows around -25°C are certainly possible, as 850mb temperatures are forecast to dip down to -25 to -30°C over Souther Manitoba . This system looks relatively dry, however we may shift into a pattern that will favour clippers tracking along the international border which may bring long-awaited snow to southern portions of the Prairies and the Northern Plains.