Warmest Weather of the Year so Far on Tap

This week will start out with the warmest weather we’ve seen so far this year.

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A surface high will bring a mild southwesterly flow to Southern Manitoba on Monday and Tuesday

Monday and Tuesday

Monday
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Mainly Sunny
22°C / 7°C
Tuesday
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Mainly Sunny
23°C / 5°C

Monday and Tuesday will be two very nice and very similar days. Both days will feature high temperatures in the low to mid twenties in Southern Manitoba with sunny skies. The wind will be from the south-west on both days and may become a bit breezy in the late morning and afternoon hours. Other than that there isn’t much negative to say about the start of the week…except that our first twenty degree weather of the year won’t fall on a weekend!

Wednesday

Wednesday
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Mainly cloudy. Chance of showers.
12°C / 3°C

A cold front will move through Southern Manitoba on Tuesday night, setting up cooler conditions for Wednesday. This will be a fairly strong front, but the lack of moisture ahead of it will mean little if any rainfall is expected as it passes. Temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be in the low teens with a strong north wind.

Long Range

The rest of this week looks to remain on the cooler side, with temperatures remaining in the teens on Thursday and Friday. By Friday conditions may rebound back close to seasonal values, but unfortunately models show an arctic high pressure system dropping south into our area just in time for next weekend.

The “Meteorological Cliff”

After a week of relatively pleasant, albeit somewhat sloppy, weather in Southern Manitoba we’re headed for a kind of meteorological cliff. Our weather will change dramatically this Friday, as colder and snowier weather moves in.

Location of the

Before we head off this cliff, our weather will remain very nice. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the low minus single digits in Southern Manitoba. There may even be a few zero degree readings in south-western sections of Manitoba late in the day as warmer air surges into Manitoba. On Thursday we should reach our warmest temperatures of the week with values in the low (positive) single digits expected. Some of the traditional warm spots in Southern Manitoba may reach values slightly warmer than that. The daytime hours of Thursday will be fairly nice in most of Southern Manitoba, but conditions will begin to change in the afternoon in western areas as snow begins to move in.

Our trek off the meteorological cliff will begin on Thursday night, as snow develops over Southern Manitoba. The snow is expected to begin on Thursday afternoon (or early evening) in Western Manitoba, eventually moving spreading through the remainder of Southern Manitoba by late Thursday evening or very early Friday morning. Total accumulations from this initial batch of snow will generally be in the 2 to 5cm range in Southern Manitoba. By Friday morning temperatures will have fallen into the mid minus teens over much of Southern Manitoba. Snow is expected to taper off from west to east in Southern Manitoba on Friday morning, with south-eastern sections seeing snow linger the longest. The second wave of snow moves in on Friday night. This wave will be generated as a strong Colorado Low system moves up from the south. At this point it appears that this secondary wave of snow will bring another 2 to 4cm to Winnipeg and another 4 to 8cm to south-eastern Manitoba. It is entirely possible that the amounts from this secondary area of snow could be higher or lower than listed above. Depending on where the system ends up tracking Winnipeg could end up with more snow, or perhaps none at all. However, I do believe south-eastern Manitoba will receive some snow during this time period, though again it could be more or less than I have listed above.

Location of the

A secondary concern will develop on Friday as strong north winds develop in response to the intensification of the Colorado Low. At this point it appears that northerly winds of 40km/h gusting to 60km/h, or maybe even 50km/h gusting to 70km/h on a more localized basis, will materialize on Friday. This could create significant travel difficulties as blizzard conditions, or near blizzard conditions may develop as these very strong winds interact with the fresh snow. It is too early to say exactly how bad things may get, but this is certainly something that will need to be monitored closely over the next few days. Please continue to check back with A Weather Moment for further updates on this developing weather story.

After this Colorado Low passes by, conditions will turn calm, but cold. At this point most models keep us in very cold air for basically all of the next ten days. Arctic air doesn’t make a habit of moving around very quickly, so it is likely that we’ll remain in this arctic air mass for an extended period of time. There may be some warmer days here and there, but those details are not yet known with any certainty.

Enjoy these last couple warm days, as winter is quietly waiting to push us off the meteorological cliff.

A Break From Winter

This week will feature a much needed break from winter, as temperatures soar to well above seasonal values.

Surface Temperatures

Temperatures on Monday will reach the mid minus single digits in Southern Manitoba. There will be a fairly stiff west wind in place throughout the day though, which will make conditions considerably less comfortable than they would otherwise be. On Tuesday we’ll have our first shot at the 0C mark this week, as a low pressure system brings in a warm surge of air from the west. Unfortunately there may be some snow on Tuesday associated with the low pressure system. Amounts will not be particularly high, probably no more than a few centimetres in most areas. Despite the small amounts there could be travel difficulties as the snow is likely to be wet in nature and could present icing issues.

On Wednesday temperatures will remain warm, with highs just slightly below the freezing mark in most areas. We’ll have our best shot at getting above zero on Thursday as a big push of warm air moves into Manitoba from the south-west.

At this point it appears that this warm spell will end on Friday, with a low pressure system passing to our south prompting another arctic air mass to descend into Southern Manitoba. This system may bring a decent snowfall to portions of Southern Manitoba on Friday as well, though it is too early to discuss the details of it. In the longer range most indications suggest that we are in a for a very cold period through the middle of January, with a significant arctic air mass settling over the Prairies. With that in mind, there is all the more reason to enjoy this week’s pleasant “break” from winter.

Pleasant Weekend Ahead

We’ll break out of the deep freeze today as things finally warm up a bit as we head into a mostly snow-free, pleasant weekend.

850mb Temperatures

850mb temperatures for this evening from the GEM-REG model. It’s clearly evident that a substantial area of warm air has pushed northwards over Southern Manitoba.

Yesterday’s 1-3cm of snow that fell across the city marked a shift in the long-wave pattern over the Prairies as the flow shifted from a west to northwest flow to a more southwesterly flow. This has allowed warmer air to flood over Southern Manitoba aloft, and as winds pick up this afternoon, we’ll get a chance to mix it down to the surface.

There will be a slight chance of flurries through the day today, but if they happen they’ll be quite light and very scattered about. Winds will pick up midday to around 20-30km/h, which will help mix down warmer air aloft and warm our temperatures up to around -6°C.

Skies will remain mainly cloudy tonight, and temperatures will remain steady near -6 or -7°C.

Winds will remain out of the south or southwest for most of the day tomorrow, keeping our temperatures around -6°C yet again. By late in the afternoon or tomorrow evening, the winds will shift around slightly to the northwest, which will allow our temperatures to drop to a low of -15°C overnight. We’ll be far from a deep freeze, though, as Sunday looks to bring sunshine back to Southern Manitoba as we climb to a daytime high around a more seasonal -10°C.